Bucks Vs Suns: NBA Finals Game 6 Betting Preview, Tips And Picks – July 20, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on July 18, 2021

The Milwaukee Bucks (46-26, 15-7) are 5-point favorites heading into a decisive Game 6 of the NBA Finals against the Phoenix Suns (51-21, 14-7) at Fiserv Forum on Tuesday, starting at 9:00 PM ET on ABC. The Bucks hold a 3-2 series lead. The matchup has an over/under of 222.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from William Hill sportsbook as of July 18, 2021, 12:55 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Bucks vs Suns Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of July 18

Bucks:
Thanasis Antetokounmpo: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Donte DiVincenzo: Out For Season (Foot),
Sam Merrill: Out (Ankle)

Suns:
Dario Saric: Out For Season (Knee)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Suns (+5)
Total Pick Over (222.5)
Prediction Bucks 114, Suns 112

The spread for this game suggested by the model (1.8 points) is significantly less than the 5-point edge William Hill gives to the Bucks, though the data still has them as the favorite. Put your money on the Suns to cover.

In this game, the model projects a total (226.0 points) a little higher than the William Hill over/under (222.5 points).

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Bucks Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Giannis Antetokounmpo 61 28.1 11.0 5.9 1.2 1.2 1.1
Khris Middleton 68 20.4 6.0 5.4 1.1 0.1 2.2
Jrue Holiday 59 17.7 4.5 6.1 1.6 0.6 1.9
Brook Lopez 70 12.3 5.0 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.4
Bobby Portis 66 11.4 7.1 1.1 0.8 0.4 1.1

Bucks Player Props

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 44.5, 0.5 lower than his season average of 45.0.
  • Jrue Holiday’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 30.5, 2.2 higher than his season average of 28.3.
  • Bryn Forbes’ three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.7 shots less than his season average of 2.2.
  • Holiday’s steals prop total for the game is set at 1.5, 0.1 steals lower than his season average of 1.6.

Suns Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Devin Booker 67 25.6 4.2 4.3 0.8 0.2 1.9
Chris Paul 70 16.4 4.5 8.9 1.4 0.3 1.5
Deandre Ayton 69 14.4 10.5 1.4 0.6 1.2 0.1
Mikal Bridges 72 13.5 4.3 2.1 1.1 0.9 1.9
Jae Crowder 60 10.1 4.7 2.1 0.8 0.5 2.5

Suns Player Props

  • Devin Booker’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 36.5, 2.4 greater than his season average of 34.1.
  • Chris Paul’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 30.5, 0.7 higher than his season average of 29.8.
  • Jae Crowder’s three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 2.5, equal to his season average of 2.5.
  • Deandre Ayton’s blocks prop over/under for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.3 blocks higher than his season average of 1.2.

Shooting Trends

  • The Bucks make 48.2% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.1 percentage points higher than the Suns have allowed to their opponents (46.1%).
  • Milwaukee has a 36-23-1 record against the spread and a 45-15 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 46.1% from the field.
  • Phoenix’s record is 45-16 against the spread and 48-13 overall when its opponents make more than 48.2% of their shots from the field.
  • The Suns have shot at a 48.9% rate from the field this season, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 45.6% shooting opponents of the Bucks have averaged.
  • Phoenix is 50-23-1 against the spread and 59-15 overall when it shoots higher than 45.6% from the field.
  • Milwaukee is 40-28-1 against the spread and 52-17 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot above 48.9% from the field.
  • The Bucks shoot 37.4% from three-point range, 2.4% higher than the 35% the Suns allow to opponents.
  • Milwaukee has a 33-26-1 record against the spread and a 44-16 record overall when the team knocks down more than 35% of its three-point attempts.
  • Phoenix is 38-16 against the spread while putting up a 41-13 straight-up record when its opponents shoot above 37.4% from three-point range.
  • The Suns’ three-point shooting percentage this season (37.8%) is zero percentage points higher than opponents of the Bucks are averaging (37.8%).
  • Phoenix has a 31-14 ATS record and is 36-9 straight-up when the team makes more than 37.8% of its three-point attempts.
  • Milwaukee has a 33-20 ATS record and a 41-12 straight-up record this season when it connects on more than 37.8% of its three-point attempts.
  • The Bucks knock down 13.7 three-pointers per game this season, one more make per game than the Suns give up (12.7).
  • Milwaukee is 28-10 against the spread and 34-4 overall when it makes more threes than its opponents, while Phoenix is 18-22 ATS and 22-18 straight up in games when it is out-shot from deep.
  • The Bucks are the fifth-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Suns allow the seventh-fewest makes from deep.

Bucks vs Suns Stat Rankings

Bucks Rank Bucks AVG Suns AVG Suns Rank
1st 117.9 Points Scored 114 7th
22nd 112.2 Points Allowed 108.3 7th
3rd 48.3 Rebounds 42.9 29th
12th 10.9 Off. Rebounds 8.6 28th
5th 13.7 3pt Made 12.7 13th
14th 24.9 Assists 26.2 3rd
16th 13 Turnovers 11.8 4th

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