Week 7 NFL Betting Picks 2021 | Odds, Previews, And Predictions

Posted By Brian Sausa on October 25, 2021

As we make our way through October, we come to Week 7 of the National Football League season. As more games are played, we are finally getting an idea of what each team’s identity is this season. Hopefully, it leads to some profits at online sportsbooks across the United States. Below, we’ll go through each game and provide a preview along with Week 7 NFL betting picks for every matchup.

Week 7 NFL Betting Lines

NFL Week 7 matchups and predictions

Thursday, Oct. 21 (8:20 P.M. ET)

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns ()

Things went absolutely terrible on offense for the Browns against the Cardinals in Week 6. Baker Mayfield turned it over three times, they went 3-for-10 on third down, and they lost by three touchdowns at home in a game they were never really in.

Ordinarily, getting back on your home field on a short week would be welcome news. But in this case, Cleveland wishes it had a few extra days. The list of injuries for the Browns is truly massive, and the home team is going to be severely shorthanded in this one.

The Browns’ offense only really works if it can run the ball, and now Kareem Hunt has joined Nick Chubb on the shelf and they will be down to a committee of D’Ernest Johnson, Demetric Fallon, and perhaps even Jarvis Landry. Not to mention that Mayfield (shoulder) will also miss the game, as will two starting tackles and several other players of note while veteran Case Keenum starts under center.

This is a pass game for me but if there’s a play, it’s probably on the Broncos and the under. If Denver’s defense can play up to its capability here, Teddy Bridgewater’s offense could be the best one on the field. The Broncos’ defense ranks top five in yards per play and early-down success, which could be the keys to putting Keenum in unmanageable situations. Also consider Denver in a teaser leg now that you can get them up above a touchdown.

Pick: Under 43 (-110), Denver Broncos +2 (-110 or better)

Full Broncos vs. Browns Betting Preview

Sunday, Oct. 24 (1 P.M. ET)

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants ()

Sandwiched between the Rams and Chiefs, it’s the Panthers on the Giants’ schedule in Week 7. Big Blue has a ton of injuries, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, and is coming off a pretty embarrassing blowout loss to Los Angeles. Daniel Jones completed concussion protocol and was able to play, but he was ineffective and lost rookie receiver Kadarius Toney. In Week 7, the offense is likely to be without Toney, Darius Slayton, Saquon Barkley, and Kenny Golladay.

Things aren’t much better for the Carolina Panthers, losers of three straight games. Christian McCaffrey is set to miss a few weeks and Sam Darnold hasn’t looked very good the past two weeks. The good news is that the schedule is lightening up and Carolina has a chance to win two road games in a row starting in Week 7.

In theory, taking a field goal with the home underdog is the play. But once you add the context into this matchup, there’s a reason the line shifted from a pick ’em to Carolina -3 in the past couple of weeks. It’s evident that the Panthers need to run the ball more effectively and lucky for them, the Giants’ run defense is among the worst in the league. Carolina grinds out an ugly win here.

Picks: Carolina Panthers -3 (-110 or better), Under 44 (-110 or better)

Full Giants vs. Panthers Betting Preview

New York Jets at New England Patriots ()

So the Jets got beat by the Atlanta Falcons in London back in Week 5 while the Patriots took the high-powered Cowboys to overtime and nearly won the game in Week 6. New York’s rookie QB Zach Wilson leads the league in interceptions, while New England’s rookie signal-caller Mac Jones is 4th in the NFL in completion percentage (71.1). Now throw in that the Pats already beat the Jets 25-6 in Week 2 this season. Now you understand why everyone is going to be betting on the Patriots giving away a touchdown.

But when everyone zigs, we like to zag. Gang Green is coming off the bye and it’s a chance to hit the reset button for Wilson after the game was a bit too fast for him in his first month as a rookie. Now, he gets some extra prep for a Bill Belichick offense that dominated him in Week 2, and it’s his first opportunity to face an opponent for a second time.

The Jets will be a fresh group and they have the ability to stop the run, which will somewhat neutralize the Patriots’ offense. It won’t be fun but at anything more than a touchdown, we’re taking the Jets to keep this divisional matchup much closer after the extra time they’ve had to rest and prepare.

Picks: New York Jets +7 (-110 or better), Over 42.5 (-110)

Full Jets vs. Patriots Betting Preview

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans ()

Much was made of how bad the Chiefs’ defense looked, and then it went to Washington and limited the Football Team to 13 points in a massive win. The Kansas City defense is still bad, but it’s the type of performance that will have you ready to consider betting the Chiefs again after they’ve now covered two straight games on the road.

Tennessee is coming into this game with one less day of rest and prep after playing an exciting but grueling game on Monday night. The Titans made some key stops on Buffalo and that can’t be ignored, but we still lean toward Tennessee’s defense being fraudulent and this being a letdown spot.

It ranks third-to-bottom in yards per pass allowed, which bodes well for a Chiefs offense that wants to sling the ball with Patrick Mahomes and all his friends. This team ranks third in yards per play and gets more first downs than any offense in football so far this season. We still believe the turnovers will regress and eventually, the talent starts to take over and win out.

It should come as no surprise to see a massive total of around 56 points for this one and even though Kansas City and Washington didn’t come close in Week 6, we’d look to the over in this one assuming A.J. Brown and Julio Jones play for Tennessee.

Picks: Kansas City Chiefs -4 (-110 or better), Over 56 (up to -115)

Full Chiefs vs. Titans Betting Preview

Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers ()

Any worries about Green Bay after Week 1 were exaggerated and there’s no way to look at this game and not think the Football Team defense is in major trouble. Whether it’s the Giants, Saints, or Chiefs, everyone this defense comes across has success in 2021. And with how Aaron Rodgers looks, are we supposed to expect anything else from Green Bay at Lambeau?

The Packers have a few key injuries on defense and despite that, it allowed 14 points in a road game against Chicago in Week 6. Even if they’re facing somewhat of a step up in competition, Taylor Heinicke is susceptible to huge mistakes and the WFT offense can’t keep up with Green Bay.

Giving away more than a touchdown is a ton in the NFL, particularly against a team that was just in the postseason. But it’s becoming clear that the WFT isn’t the same team and every indication we’ve gotten from its defense is that the Packers are going to shred it. When looking at DVOA metrics from Football Outsiders, Green Bay is a top-10 passing offense and Washington ranks 29th.

Picks: Green Bay Packers -8.5 (-110 or better), Over 49 (-110 or better)

Full WFT vs. Packers Betting Preview

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins ()

There are several reasons to love the Atlanta Falcons in this spot. Let’s start with the fact that this team was just on its bye and had some extra time to prepare after beating the Jets in London in Week 5. Now compare that with Miami, which just lost in London in Week 6. It turns out the Dolphins requested a later bye week, and that may work out in the long run, but it could be an advantage for Atlanta in this game.

Tua Tagovailoa returned and the offense improved. He wasn’t great, but he wasn’t the reason they lost. That honor goes to Brian Flores and his staff, who made some pretty baffling decisions down the stretch of this game. Atlanta’s defense really isn’t good at all but we still like a well-rested unit over one that just flew across the pond after losing to the winless Jaguars.

While the Falcons are giving less than a field goal, hop all over this game. Atlanta’s offense may have found something with Cordarrelle Patterson being utilized in the passing game and out of the backfield, and Calvin Ridley should be back in the lineup to join Kyle Pitts.

Picks: Atlanta Falcons -1.5 (-110 or better), Under 47.5 (-110)

Full Falcons vs. Dolphins Betting Preview

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens ()

Since the start of the fourth quarter in Week 5, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have been absolutely rolling. The red-hot Chargers were no match for Baltimore in Week 6, and now this group is 5-1 and in control of the AFC North if they win this game.

The Bengals are right on their heels at 4-2 after crushing the Lions in Week 5. While the Bengals’ defense ranks 7th in total DVOA, we still believe it’s a product of the schedule a little bit. When this team plays a dynamic offense like it did vs. Green Bay in Week 5, it looks a whole lot different.

Baltimore’s run game, which ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per game, is only part of the story because of Lamar Jackson’s improved ability to throw the ball. That was on full display with virtually pass-only game scripts on Monday night against the Colts in Week 5 when he totaled well over 400 yards in a thrilling comeback win.

This is the Ravens’ third straight home game heading into the bye and even though they will have their hands full on defense, the Bengals aren’t going to be able to keep pace if the Ravens’ offense continues its massive efficiency rate on first down. Definitely put the Ravens in your teasers.

Picks: Baltimore Ravens -6.5 (-110), Over 47 (-110)

Full Bengals vs. Ravens Betting Preview

Sunday, Oct. 24 (4:05 P.M. ET)

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams ()

There isn’t more of a mismatch on paper this week, and that’s why Los Angeles is giving away more than two touchdowns to the winless Lions. The most interesting storyline isn’t even the game itself, but the offseason trade that sent Matthew Stafford to LA and Jared Goff to Detroit.

The Rams have the No. 3-ranked DVOA offense in the NFL and rank second in yards per play while scoring nearly 30 points per game. The Lions rank 29th in total DVOA on defense and it ranks 31st in opponent YPP. Detroit’s offense is equally as bad, ranking 29th in both yards per play and third-down conversion rate.

We see a similar game to last week, where the Rams are comfortably ahead for a huge portion of the game. The matchup in New York got to 49 points only because of all the turnovers and great field position that it gave Los Angeles. This game could play out a similar with similar or less scoring overall.

Picks: Los Angeles Rams -14 (buy up to -120), Under 50 (110)

Full Lions vs. Rams Betting Preview

Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders ()

After a couple of tumultuous weeks, the Raiders responded with an impressive outright win as underdogs in Denver. That is likely to make Las Vegas a popular pick among the public now that they’re back at home and giving away around a field goal to Philadelphia. But with the Eagles coming off a cover of their own and having 10 days between games, we like the road underdog with the points.

Where the Eagles struggle most on defense is stopping the run, which Las Vegas seems to be incapable of doing anyway. Philadelphia defense ranks top 10 in overall yards per play and it’s also a top 10 DVOA pass defense. Philadelphia was fortunate after falling behind three touchdowns to find the back door and cover the number against Tampa Bay, but we think this one stays tighter throughout and the Eagles may even win.

Picks: Philadelphia Eagles +3 (-110), Over 48 (-110 or better)

Full Eagles vs. Raiders Betting Preview

Sunday, Oct. 24 (4:25 P.M. ET)

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals ()

Plenty of people out there (myself included) expected the Cardinals to falter on multiple occasions by now, but it hasn’t happened. Whether Arizona really is the class of the NFL remains to be seen and we won’t find out in Week 7, though the Cards should remain undefeated when hosting Houston.

The Texans are a difficult team to get a read on. They could create headaches for a Bill Belichick team one week, but then only score three points the next. We’re willing to settle on a simple conclusion: the Texans are bad, and the Cardinals are good. But are they ‘bet them at -17 in an NFL game’ good?

At this number, I recommend staying away entirely. Would it be shocking for the Cards’ electric offense to score 40 points? No. But would we be shocked if Houston pulled out some tricks and Arizona regressed a bit? Not really. What we would lean toward is over 47 points because however this goes, there should be plenty of red zone opportunities whether it’s Kyler going down the field or Arizona forcing turnovers.

Picks: Over 47 (-110 or better), Houston Texans +17 (-110 or better)

Full Texans vs. Cardinals Betting Preview

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ()

Because the Buccaneers specialize in stopping the run, the Bears become completely one-dimensional with a rookie quarterback.  Chicago’s defense ranks near the bottom in most categories including yards per pass and explosive passes, so we don’t see how they get down the field with much ease.

Tampa’s offense ranks in the top five in total DVOA with a pass-heavy game script. While Chicago’s pass defense has played extremely well at points this season, the multitude of options for Brady and the Bucs make them too much for the Bears to cover. Even though Tampa Bay is banged up, it also had the extra rest after playing on Thursday and may be able to really pour it on in the second half.

While this spread is under two touchdowns, take the Bucs, as it probably won’t last all week. This is another game that is probably best avoided, but the Bears’ offense instills no confidence.

Picks: Tampa Bay Bucs -13.5 (-110 or better), Under 47.5 (-110)

Full Bucs vs. Bears Betting Preview

Sunday, Oct. 24 (8:20 P.M. ET)

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers ()

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a bye, which means we’re getting Kyle Shanahan with ample time to prepare a game plan for the Colts at home. But since the hook is going the other way with Niners -3.5, we are looking at Indianapolis as a road underdog with bad weather expected in the Bay Area.

Shanahan may be one of the game’s brightest play-callers, but the strength of the Colts’ defense and expected inclement weather may make it difficult to execute a game plan that allows San Francisco to hide Jimmy Garropolo’s flaws. Indianapolis is the second-ranked DVOA run defense in the NFL and where the 49ers need to attack the Colts is through the air, it just comes down to whether Jimmy makes enough plays with his arm while it’s pouring outside.

We are taking Indianapolis and the points in a game that should end by one score either way. The Colts’ offense is improving by the week with Jonathan Taylor being the centerpiece and Wentz playing much better. Colts and the under in a game that will have a slower pace.

Picks: Under 45.5 (-110), Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (-108 or better)

Full Colts vs. 49ers Betting Preview

Monday, Oct. 25 (8:15 P.M. ET)

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks ()

The New Orleans Saints are coming off the bye week in an advantageous position. They must travel to Seattle, but Russell Wilson won’t be in uniform on the other side. While Geno Smith has done an admirable job overall, there really isn’t a debate about whether the Saints are getting lucky here.

Now add in the week of rest and extra preparation, and this could be a big game for New Orleans. Seattle is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game and now faces a Saints offense that excels by running it through Alvin Kamara in the run game. The Seahawks also allowed six completions to the running back in Week 6 vs. Pittsburgh, so Kamara could have free reign if he’s running routes out of the backfield.

The Seahawks came up with an improbable cover on the road and that will attract bettors to back them in Week 7, especially if they get healthier. That said, the Saints are actually the ones getting some returning players back after the bye and at under a touchdown, we’re with the road team on Monday night.

Picks: New Orleans Saints -4 (-110 or better), Under 44.5 (-110)

Full Saints vs. Seahawks Betting Preview

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Brian Sausa

Brian Sausa is a longtime sports writer with extensive betting experience and knowledge of the industry. A journalism graduate with an extensive sports background, Brian has been employed by multiple professional leagues including MLB, MiLB (Minor League Baseball), and the NHL.

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