Bucks Vs Suns: NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Preview, Tips And Picks – July 14, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on July 12, 2021

The Milwaukee Bucks (46-26, 13-7) are 3.5-point favorites heading into Game 4 of the NBA Finals against the Phoenix Suns (51-21, 14-5) at Fiserv Forum on Wednesday, starting at 9:00 PM ET on ABC. The Suns lead the series 2-1. The over/under in the matchup is set at 220.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from William Hill sportsbook as of July 11, 2021, 11:55 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Bucks vs Suns Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of July 12

Bucks:
Donte DiVincenzo: Out For Season (Foot)

Suns:
Dario Saric: Out For Season (Knee)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Suns (+3.5)
Total Pick Over (220)
Prediction Bucks 114, Suns 113

The model favors the Bucks by 0.8 points, just 2.7 less than the 3.5-point spread set by William Hill.

In this game, the model projects a total (226.2 points) a little higher than the William Hill over/under (220 points).

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Bucks Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Giannis Antetokounmpo 61 28.1 11.0 5.9 1.2 1.2 1.1
Khris Middleton 68 20.4 6.0 5.4 1.1 0.1 2.2
Jrue Holiday 59 17.7 4.5 6.1 1.6 0.6 1.9
Brook Lopez 70 12.3 5.0 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.4
Bobby Portis 66 11.4 7.1 1.1 0.8 0.4 1.1

Bucks Player Props

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 44.5, 0.5 less than his season average of 45.0.
  • Jrue Holiday’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 30.5, 2.2 greater than his season average of 28.3.
  • Bryn Forbes’ three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 1.5, 0.7 shots lower than his season average of 2.2.
  • Holiday’s steals prop total for the game is set at 1.5, 0.1 steals less than his season average of 1.6.

Suns Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Devin Booker 67 25.6 4.2 4.3 0.8 0.2 1.9
Chris Paul 70 16.4 4.5 8.9 1.4 0.3 1.5
Deandre Ayton 69 14.4 10.5 1.4 0.6 1.2 0.1
Mikal Bridges 72 13.5 4.3 2.1 1.1 0.9 1.9
Jae Crowder 60 10.1 4.7 2.1 0.8 0.5 2.5

Suns Player Props

  • Devin Booker’s PRA prop total for the game is set at 36.5, 2.4 greater than his season average of 34.1.
  • Deandre Ayton’s rebounding prop over/under for the matchup is set at 10.5 boards, equal to his season average of 10.5.
  • Jae Crowder’s three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 2.5, equal to his season average of 2.5.
  • Chris Paul’s steals prop total for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.1 steals higher than his season average of 1.4.

Shooting Trends

  • The Bucks make 48.1% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.1 percentage points higher than the Suns have allowed to their opponents (46%).
  • Milwaukee is 35-23-1 against the spread and 44-15 overall when it shoots better than 46% from the field.
  • Phoenix’s record is 44-14 against the spread and 47-11 overall when its opponents make more than 48.1% of their shots from the field.
  • The Suns have shot at a 48.8% rate from the field this season, 3.4 percentage points higher than the 45.4% shooting opponents of the Bucks have averaged.
  • Phoenix is 50-22-1 against the spread and 59-14 overall when it shoots higher than 45.4% from the field.
  • When Milwaukee’s opponents shoot above 48.8% from the field, it is 40-26-1 against the spread and 52-15 overall.
  • The Bucks are hitting 37.4% of their three-point shots this season, 2.4% higher than the 35% the Suns allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Milwaukee is 32-26-1 against the spread and 43-16 overall when it shoots better than 35% from distance.
  • Phoenix is 38-15 against the spread and 41-12 overall when its opponents shoot better than 37.4% from deep.
  • The Suns are making 37.7% of their shots from beyond the arc, which is zero percentage points higher than the 37.7% the Bucks’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Phoenix is 31-13 ATS and 36-8 overall when the team makes more than 37.7% of its three-point attempts.
  • Milwaukee is 32-19 ATS and 40-11 overall in games it shoots above 37.7% from deep.
  • The Bucks connect on 13.8 three-pointers per game this season, 1.1 more makes per game than the Suns allow (12.7).
  • When Milwaukee makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 27-10 against the spread and 33-4 overall. When Phoenix is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 18-21 ATS and 22-17 straight up.
  • The Bucks are the fifth-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Suns allow the seventh-fewest makes from deep.

Bucks vs Suns Stat Rankings

Bucks Rank Bucks AVG Suns AVG Suns Rank
1st 117.9 Points Scored 114 7th
22nd 112.2 Points Allowed 108.2 7th
3rd 48.4 Rebounds 43.1 29th
12th 10.8 Off. Rebounds 8.6 28th
5th 13.8 3pt Made 12.7 13th
14th 24.9 Assists 26.3 3rd
16th 13.1 Turnovers 11.8 4th

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