What a wild week we had for week 3. I have never seen GPP scores that big across the industry. When it takes a 301 to win the Milly Maker you know we have had a high scoring week. That is what happens when some cheaper high owned running backs go for three touchdowns. Some of our plays definitely worked out and we will try to continue that trend in week 4. We will try to hit on some studs and values coming up for week 4 DFS NFL action. These should be considered popular plays that can be used in cash games and mixed into your GPP lineups.
****Note: Until we have more clarity on the weather situation for the WAS vs PHI game I would avoid all players from this contest in Thursday lock contests.****
QuarterBack
Studs
Andrew Luck vs. JAC (DK $7,800) (FD $9,100) –
Many, including myself, expected a bounce back game from Luck last week, but that did not occur. Much like last week, this appears like another good spot for a big game for him. In six career games against the Jaguars, Luck has topped 250 passing yards five times and has 10 touchdowns and just three interceptions. The Jags have surrendered more than 350 yards and two touchdowns in each of the last two games. Another bonus is that ownership percentage could be lower than it normally would be in a matchup like this due to his recent underwhelming performances. Quarterbacks like Luck don’t stay down for long and it’s only a matter of time before he has that big game we’ve all been anticipating.
Other Studs: Aaron Rodgers (DK $7,900) (FD $9,200), Peyton Manning (DK $7,200) (FD $8,200), and Russell Wilson (DK $7,100) (FD $8,200)
Values
Derek Carr at CHI (DK $5,100) (FD $7,800) –
Carr has played well in in the last two games, eclipsing 300 yards in each of those games and throwing for five touchdowns and just one interception. He’s topped 20 fantasy points on both sites in each of those games. This week he has a great matchup against the Bears who have surrendered the second most passing touchdowns this season (8). Last week was the first time this season that the Bears held an opposing quarterback to just one passing touchdown, but that had a lot to do with game flow as the Seahawks shut down the Bears offense. The Raiders are allowing an average of 28.7 points per game, so there’s a good chance the Bears score some points this week and force the Raiders to pass. Look for Carr to continue his success through the air and have another solid outing at a very affordable price.
Other Values: Carson Palmer (DK $6,600) (FD $8,100) and Nick Foles (DK $6,600) (FD $6,500)
Running Backs
Studs
Eddie Lacy at SF (DK $6,900) (FD $7,800) –
There’s a lot to like about Lacy this week. From his price on both sites to his matchup. On DraftKings, he’s the seventh most expensive running back and on FanDuel he’s the eighth most expensive back. On paper, he has the best matchup of all the elite backs as he faces the Niners who have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs (5). Lacy hasn’t played well in the last two games, but he has also been dealing with an injury. The good news is that he’s been able to practice with no limitations this week and appears healthy. The Packers are averaging 4.3 red zone scoring attempts per game and Lacy receives 44.4 percent of the teams red zone carries, so the opportunity will be there. At his price, it’s tough to skip on him this week.
Other Studs: Adrian Peterson (DK $7,800) (FD $9,000), Le’Veon Bell (DK $7,700) (FD $8,900), Jamaal Charles (DK $7,600) (FD $8,700), and Matt Forte (DK $7,100) (FD $8,300)
Values
Karlos Williams vs NYG (DK $3,400) (FD $6,300) –
A starting running back who has a great matchup and is at a near minimum price, sign me up! LeSean McCoy is doubtful for this game and Williams is expected to get the start. Even though McCoy has played in the first three games, Williams has managed to score a touchdown in each of those games. In fact, he’s the only back that has scored a rushing touchdown in each game this season. He’s averaging over seven yards per carry and has been very efficient. The matchup is also one that favors him. Through three weeks, the Giants have allowed 476 total yards and three touchdowns to opposing backs. He’s as chalky as chalk can be this week and should be the staple of all your cash games. Keep an eye on McCoy’s status before finalizing your lineups, but if indeed Williams starts, he’s should start in your lineups as well.
Other values: Isaiah Crowell (DK $4,500) (FD $6,600), Danny Woodhead (DK $4,400) (FD $6,400), T.J. Yeldon (DK$4,400) (FD $6,600), and James Starks (DK $3,000) (FD $6,500) *** if Lacy sits***
Wide Receivers
Studs
Julio Jones at HOU (DK $9,300) (FD $9,400) –
There are only a few players that are must starts every week and Jones is one of those players. He leads the league in all receiving categories besides touchdowns. He has the most targets (46), receptions (34), and yards (440). He’s second in receiving touchdowns with four. Jones is on pace for a career year. He’s had 135 or more receiving yards and has caught at least nine passes in each game this season. The Texans have been solid defensively against receivers, but they have not face Julio Jones yet. He’s matchup proof and is worth paying up for. Until he lets us down, there’s really no reason not to plug him in your lineups. He’s like the Russell Westbrook of basketball.
Other Studs: Antonio Brown (DK $9,200) (FD $8,900), Odell Beckham JR (DK $9,100) (FD $9,100), Demaryius Thomas (DK $8,100) (FD $8,500), A.J. Green (DK $7,600) (FD $8,400), and Randall Cobb (DK $7,400) (FD $8,200)
Values
Amari Cooper at CHI (DK $6,300) (FD $7,200) –
The Bears have allowed the second most receiving touchdowns to opposing receivers through three games (7) and are yielding over 29 fantasy points per game. Cooper has now gone consecutive games with at least seven catches and 100+ receiving yards. In the each of the last two games, he’s been targeted 11 times and clearly becoming Carr’s go-to receiver. He is third amongst receivers in yards after catch with 106. Surprisingly, this Raiders offense is clicking on all cylinders and Cooper is a big part the reason why. He’s receiving the volume, is capable of big plays, remains underpriced, and has a great matchup. There’s a lot to like about Cooper this week.
Other Values: Jordan Matthews (DK $6,600) (FD $7,000), Allen Robinson (DK $5,500) (FD $6,500), and Donte Moncrief (DK $5,000) (FD $6,300)
Tight End
Studs
Martellus Bennett vs OAK (DK $4,500) (FD $5,500) –
Bennett can almost be considered a value play this week based on his price and matchup. The Raiders proved last week that any tight end can flourish against their defense as Gary Barnidge caught six passes for 105 yards and a touchdown against them. Not knocking Barnidge by any means as he’s now had two solid performances in back to back weeks, but he’s not considered a dominating tight end in this league. At least, not yet. Bennett has struggled in the last two weeks, but the matchups have been pretty tough. However, this week he has the Raiders on deck who have allowed 305 yards and five touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. They have surrendered at least one touchdown in each game this year. Bennett should be able to capitalize from this matchup and finish the day with a solid stat line.
Other studs: Jimmy Graham (DK $5,800) (FD $6,000), Greg Olsen (DK $5,400) (FD $6,300), and Tyler Eifert (DK $4,600) (FD $5,700)
Values
Eric Ebron at SEA (DK $3,500) (FD $5,100) –
After scoring a touchdown in each of the first two games, Ebron was held scoreless last week against the Broncos. However, he still caught four passes for 61 yards and exceeded value on his $3,300 salary on DraftKings. This week he has another tough matchup against the Seahawks, but they have allowed opposing tight ends to get in the end zone in two of their three games. Ebron has been targeted 20 times this season and at this low price that’s definitely something to take into consideration. Only five tight ends have received more targets than him this season. He should be able to hit value at his price and could be a contrarian play because of matchup.
Other values: Jason Witten (DK$4,400) (FD $6,000), Coby Fleener (DK $3,200) (FD $4,900) and Maxx Williams (DK $2,500) (FD $4,700)
