Bucks Vs Suns: NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Preview, Tips And Picks – July 11, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on July 9, 2021

The Milwaukee Bucks (46-26, 12-7) are 4-point favorites heading into Game 3 of the NBA Finals against the Phoenix Suns (51-21, 14-4) at Fiserv Forum on Sunday, starting at 8:00 PM ET on ABC. The Suns lead the series 2-0. The matchup has an over/under set at 221.5 points.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of July 9, 2021, 1:05 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Bucks vs Suns Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of July 9

Bucks:
Donte DiVincenzo: Out For Season (Foot)

Suns:
Dario Saric: Out For Season (Knee)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Suns (+4)
Total Pick Over (221.5)
Prediction Bucks 114, Suns 113

The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (1.1 points) is slightly less than the 4-point edge DraftKings gives to the Bucks, though the data still has them as the favorite.

The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 4.8 points lower than the model projection.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Bucks Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Giannis Antetokounmpo 61 28.1 11.0 5.9 1.2 1.2 1.1
Khris Middleton 68 20.4 6.0 5.4 1.1 0.1 2.2
Jrue Holiday 59 17.7 4.5 6.1 1.6 0.6 1.9
Brook Lopez 70 12.3 5.0 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.4
Bobby Portis 66 11.4 7.1 1.1 0.8 0.4 1.1

Bucks Player Props

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo’s rebounding prop total for the contest is posted at 11.5 boards, 0.5 rebounds greater than his season average of 11.0.
  • Jrue Holiday’s PRA prop total for the game is set at 30.5, 2.2 greater than his season average of 28.3.
  • Bryn Forbes’ three pointers made prop over/under for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.7 shots less than his season average of 2.2.
  • Brook Lopez’s blocks prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, equal to his season average of 1.5.

Suns Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Devin Booker 67 25.6 4.2 4.3 0.8 0.2 1.9
Chris Paul 70 16.4 4.5 8.9 1.4 0.3 1.5
Deandre Ayton 69 14.4 10.5 1.4 0.6 1.2 0.1
Mikal Bridges 72 13.5 4.3 2.1 1.1 0.9 1.9
Jae Crowder 60 10.1 4.7 2.1 0.8 0.5 2.5

Suns Player Props

  • Devin Booker’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 36.5, 2.4 greater than his season average of 34.1.
  • Deandre Ayton’s rebounding prop over/under for the contest is posted at 10.5 rebounds, equal to his season average of 10.5.
  • Jae Crowder’s three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 2.5, equal to his season average of 2.5.
  • Ayton’s blocks prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, 0.3 blocks higher than his season average of 1.2.

Shooting Trends

  • This season, the Bucks have a 48.1% shooting percentage from the field, which is 2.1% higher than the 46% of shots the Suns’ opponents have made.
  • Milwaukee has a 34-24 record against the spread and a 43-15 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 46% from the field.
  • Phoenix has a 42-13-1 record against the spread and a 47-10 record overall when allowing its opponents to make more than 48.1% of their shots from the field.
  • The Suns are shooting 48.8% from the field, 3.4% higher than the 45.4% the Bucks’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Phoenix is 49-20-2 against the spread and 59-13 overall when it shoots better than 45.4% from the field.
  • This season, Milwaukee has a 39-27 record against the spread and a 51-15 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot over 48.8% from the field.
  • The Bucks shoot 37.4% from three-point range, 2.5% higher than the 34.9% the Suns allow to opponents.
  • Milwaukee has a 31-27 record against the spread and a 42-16 record overall when the team makes more than 34.9% of its three-point shots.
  • Phoenix is 37-14-2 against the spread while putting together a 41-12 straight-up record when its opponents shoot above 37.4% from three-point range.
  • The Suns shoot 37.8% from three-point distance this season. That’s zero percentage points higher than the Bucks have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (37.8%).
  • Phoenix is 30-13 against the spread and 36-8 overall when shooting over 37.8% as a team from three-point range.
  • Milwaukee has a 31-20 ATS record and a 39-12 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 37.8% from three-point range.
  • The Bucks knock down 13.8 three-pointers per game this season, one more make per game than the Suns allow (12.8).
  • When Milwaukee makes more threes than its opponents, it is 26-10 against the spread and 32-4 overall. When Phoenix is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 16-20-1 ATS and 22-16 straight up.
  • The Bucks make the fifth-most three-pointers in the league, while the Suns allow the seventh-fewest makes from beyond the arc.

Bucks vs Suns Stat Rankings

Bucks Rank Bucks AVG Suns AVG Suns Rank
1st 117.9 Points Scored 114.2 7th
22nd 112.4 Points Allowed 108 7th
3rd 48.4 Rebounds 43.1 29th
12th 10.8 Off. Rebounds 8.7 28th
5th 13.8 3pt Made 12.8 13th
14th 24.9 Assists 26.4 3rd
16th 13.2 Turnovers 11.8 4th

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