Predicting Ownership percentages in big field GPP tournaments is the biggest trend in DFS NFL right now. If you don’t believe me just take a look across the major content sites that have now added some sort of Thursday Ownership Percentage article from FanDuel contests for week 1. We have been doing that for some time and although it is helpful it is not 100% accurate by Sunday. So to help you all even further we have developed a tool that measures a players mentions on Twitter from a list of well respected and highly followed individuals in the fantasy sports community. Essentially these tweeters are market movers who can cause a players ownership levels to move with only one tweet. Knowing this and the fact that DFS players like to follow the wisdom of the crowd we have spent time perfecting our system to take out the noise and cut right down to what players are creating the most social buzz. This article will help show you who will be a popular play and who is flying under the radar although they have similar projections to the highly discussed player.
DFS is all about exploiting market inefficiencies. Those inefficiencies are being ironed out by the tout explosion; with hundreds, if not thousands of touts and experts, are there truly any sleepers anymore?
By measuring the Twitter output of touts, news sites, and DFS players, we can attempt to bring back the sleeper. We have a measurable picture of what chalk plays are being talked about the most, and the least.
We logged the tweets of hundreds of influential DFS twitter users since Thursday, and counted how many times chalk players have been mentioned.
Note: Chalk plays are defined by taking a player’s projected points and dividing by their salary on Fanduel.
If a chalk play is being talked about a lot, then we can assume it is a “safe” cash game player to roster, because lots of people are talking about him and influencing other people to roster him.
If a chalk play isn’t being talked about a lot, but still has a chalk projection, then we can quantify that the lack of attention will make the player under-owned compared to their projection.
At QB this week, it is really the Carson Palmer show as he has by far the most mentions of any quarterback. After his solid week last week most are expecting him to have another good game on the road against Chicago. He seems extremely safe for cash games but might be someone to consider fading in GPPs.
Matt Ryan and Eli Manning are two quarterbacks who have not been discussed a lot on twitter. With the high over under in that game they should see decent ownership percentages but according to the twitter buzz they may be worth a closer look because they could be less owned then they should be.
Carlos Hyde is all the rage coming off of his dominating Monday night performance. The 49ers travel across country and are in for a tough test against the Steelers. He is a solid candidate to fade in large GPPs.
Alot of LeSean McCoys buzz can be attributed to his injury status this week.
Shane Vereen makes for an interesting play this weekend. If the Giants get down early he could see a lot of snaps at very low ownership in a high over under game. He had 5 targets last week so if he is on the right side of game flow this week he could be a GPP option.
Alshon Jeffery has a ton of noise due to his injury status. I would not read a lot into this ownership numbers based on that. Julio Jones has the most buzz after that and should be the highest owned wide receiver.
Terrance Williams looks like a guy that people should get exposure to. People seem to want to look at Cole Beasley but I think TWill is the play this weekend.
Gronk and then everyone else like usual. I will have exposure to Gronk, Eifert, Witten and Graham this weekend.