Well here it is, back for another week of NASCAR action at Chicagoland for the MyAFIBStory400.com from Chicagoland. This week’s article is going to focus on some new information that will hopefully give you some insight on what has been winning GPP’s each week. Coupled with that I will dive into some history on the Chase, as well as expanded information from what you have been seeing weekly. Let’s get into it and take a look at what has been winning some of these GPP’s. I am going to inform all of you that this information is unfortunately not as accurate as it could be, due to the fact that DraftKings was having trouble loading the results from the 8/22 contest, that being said I hope you will find the following information useful.
Official Rules can be found here:
What’s important to know: You will select 6 drivers, staying within a $50,000 salary cap.
Average Position:
Over the last 3 races included in this information, the average number of points for the winning line up was 400.5 points. It takes the perfect combination of laps led, place differential, fastest laps, and finishing position coupled with some good luck to take down one of these NASCAR GPP’s. Differentiation is key; you need to find a driver or drivers that will be low owned due to recent performance, track averages, team, etc; this takes some research, but you can find drivers that are low-owned for a great price. With there being only 15-20 drivers who have a legitimate chance to win every week, it is not hard to pin point the drivers who will be highly owned from week to week depending on the track and recent performance. Based on recent winning line ups, it is essential to focus on drivers who are consistently able to finish in the Top 15 from week to week with that chance to win.
Average Laps Led:
It has been essential to find a driver who can get out front and stay out front over the past couple of weeks; documented by Matt Kenseth at Richmond who led 352 laps and Brad Keselowski at Darlington who led 196 laps. The average number of laps led in the last 3 winning line ups has been 219, or 23.6% of the total laps ran over the last 3 races. The average of 219 laps led equates to 54.75 points, or 13.69% of the points scored in the average of the 3 winning line ups. So it is absolutely essential to find a driver who can lead you a bunch of laps or you will not have much of a chance to take down a GPP.
Average Place Differential:
As everyone knows, a good portion of your points are scored from place differential as it pays out the most points in all of the scoring categories. Over the last 3 weeks, the average place differential in the winning line up has been 56.33, or roughly 56 points. Those 56 points total 13.98% of the total points scored in the average of the 3 winning line ups. This is where you really have to dive in on practice and qualifying times, average starting and finishing position at the track, and average starting and finishing position over the last couple races to see who has been moving forward, or falling back throughout the race.
Average Finish:
Finishing position pays out the most points out of all of the categories included in the DK scoring rules. Over the last 3 races the winning line up has had an average finish of 7.78 between the 6 drivers. Included in those 3 races the average finish of the lowest finishing driver in each of the winning line ups was 21.33, meaning you essentially have to have all of your drivers finish in the Top 20 to win. The averages from the last 3 races really tell the tale on finishing position; over the last 3 the winning line ups have had an average of 5 drivers finish inside the Top 15, or 83.33% of the time. In that time those line ups have had 4.67 drivers finish inside the Top 10, or 77.78% of the time. The Top 5 is key here as it pays out the most points; in the last 3 races the winning line ups have had 3.33 drivers finish in the Top 5, of 55.56% of the time.
Average Fastest Laps:
While the fastest car does not always win the race, it is key to find a driver who has had good speed all weekend long to gain you some fastest lap points. Over the last 3 races, the 3 winning line ups have had an average of 125 fastest laps ran; equating to 62.5 points, or 15.61% of the points scored. This is a big number because it has scored more than place differential or laps led in the last 3 races. *Disclaimer* I believe this number is skewed due to the fact that DK scored Sam Hornish JR as running 78 of the 400 fastest laps at Richmond, which I find incredibly hard to believe. Even with that, you need to find yourself a few drivers who can lay down some fast laps and gain you these key points.
Breakdown of Spending:
In this section I am going to break down the average spending on drivers in each of the last 3 races.
$5000-$6500: 5 Drivers
– Aric Almirola
– Sam Hornish Jr
– AJ Allmendinger
– Alex Bowman
– Landon Cassill
$6,600-$8,000: 2 Drivers
– Clint Bowyer
– Greg Biffle
$8,100-$9,000: 1 Driver
– Kyle Larson
$9,100-$10,000: 5 Drivers
– Brad Keselowski
– Denny Hamlin X2
– Dale Earnhardt Jr
– Carl Edwards
– Jeff Gordon
$10,100-$11,000: 3 Drivers
– Matt Kenseth
– Kyle Busch
– Kurt Busch
$11,000+: 0 Drivers
It is hard to rely on drivers in the $5,000-$6,500 range every week; this is due to the fact that many of these teams are very low budget, start and park, and cannot out-perform many of the top teams. There are some weeks thought that some of these drivers put together very respectable runs and can take your line up to the top. For example, Alex Bowman and Landon Cassill at Darlington; both put together Top 30 finishes and had nice place differentials. There are certain tracks that some of these low budget teams perform well at, it just takes the right knowledge and a little luck to hone in on of these drivers.
Average Number of Entries
It is very hard to win a NASCAR GPP with a single bullet entry, the risk and variability week to week is so great you need to diversify yourself by entering multiple times. That being said, a single bullet entry took down a NASCAR GPP not too long ago. The average numbers of entries for the winner in each of the last 3 GPP’s has averaged 25; if you have the bankroll to do so, diversify yourself.
Now it’s time to dive into some analysis of The Chase and past races at Chicagoland!
Stats Posted Below Are For the Last 4 Chicagoland Races
*Note: All 4 races were Chase races*
Wins
- Brad Keselowski: 2
- Tony Stewart: 1
- Matt Kenseth: 1
Top 5’s
- Brad Keselowski: 3
- Kevin Harvick: 3
- Jimmie Johnson: 2
- Kyle Busch: 2
- Tony Stewart: 1
- Matt Kenseth: 1
- Kyle Larson: 1
- Ryan Newman: 1
- Kasey Kahne: 1
- Kurt Busch: 1
Top 10’s
- Brad Keselowski: 4
- Kevin Harvick: 3
- Jimmie Johnson: 3
- Kyle Busch: 3
- Ryan Newman: 3
- Kurt Busch: 3
- Clint Bowyer: 3
- Tony Stewart: 2
- Matt Kenseth: 2
- Dale Earnhardt Jr: 2
Average Finish
- Kyle Larson: 3 (1 Race)
- Brad Keselowski: 3.5
- Kevin Harvick: 5.5
- Jimmie Johnson: 7.3
- Tony Stewart: 8.3
- Kyle Busch: 8.8
- Ryan Newman: 9.5
- Kasey Kahne: 10
- Sam Hornish Jr: 11 (1 Race)
- Kurt Busch: 12.5
Average Place Differential
- Kevin Harvick: 18
- Tony Stewart: 17.4 (3 Races)
- Brad Keselowski: 8
- Travis Kvapil: 8 (3 Races)
- Kyle Larson: 7 (1 Race)
- Danica Patrick: 6 (3 Races)
- Sam Hornish Jr: 5 (1 Race)
- Martin Truex Jr: 5
- David Ragan: 5
- David Gilliand: 4.3
Percent of Time Spent in Top 15
- Kyle Busch: 96.4%
- Jimmie Johnson: 95.9%
- Brad Keselowski: 89.3%
- Matt Kenseth: 88.1%
- Clint Bowyer: 83.4%
- Kyle Larson: 77.5% (1 Race)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr: 72.9% (2 Races)
- Dale Earnhardt Jr: 70.9%
- Kevin Harvick: 67.1%
- Jeff Gordon: 65 %
Laps Led
- Jimmie Johnson: 251
- Brad Keselowski: 144
- Matt Kenseth: 137
- Kyle Busch: 120
- Kevin Harvick: 81
- Kurt Busch: 64
- Jeff Gordon: 48
- Carl Edwards: 40
- Tony Stewart: 38 (3 Races)
- Jamie McMurray: 35
Fastest Laps Recorded (Since 2005)
- Jimmie Johnson: 359
- Matt Kenseth: 226
- Jeff Gordon: 167
- Tony Stewart: 154
- Kyle Busch: 136
- Brad Keselowski: 125
- Carl Edwards: 112
- Kevin Harvick: 89
- Martin Truex Jr: 79
- Kasey Kahne: 75
Average Finish Last 6 Races
- Brad Keselowski: 5.67
- Joey Logano: 6
- Carl Edwards: 7.17
- Dale Earnhardt Jr: 7.83
- Kyle Busch: 8.5
- Denny Hamlin: 11
- Kevin Harvick: 11.33
- Matt Kenseth: 11.67
- Aric Almirola: 13.33
- Clint Bowyer: 14.5
Team Averages at Chicagoland
*Last 2 Chase Races*
- Furniture Row Racing: 9 (2 Races)
– 1 Top 5 and 1 Top 10
- Joe Gibbs Racing: 9.83 (6 Races)
– 1 Win, 2 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s
- Hendrick Motorsports: 12 (8 Races)
– 2 Top 5’s and 3 Top 10’s
- Team Penske: 12.25 (4 Races)
– 1 Win, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s
- Stewart-Haas Racing: 13.86 (7 Races)
– 1 Top 5 and 3 Top 10’s
Now I’m going to dive into the analysis and picks for this weekend. I am a big believer in practice speeds and performances, especially this weekend since qualifying was rained out most teams were focused on their race day set up.
Top 10 Lap Averages Practice Session 1
*Only 2 cars ran more than 10 laps in session 1*
1.) Kyle Larson: 178.604
2.) Clint Bowyer: 175.995
Top 10 Lap Averages Practice Session 2
- Jimmie Johnson: 180.035
- Martin Truex Jr: 179.838
- Austin Dillon: 179.455
- Kevin Harvick: 179.278
- Jeff Gordon: 179.248
- Kurt Busch: 179.042
- Brad Keselowski: 178.664
- Dale Earnhardt Jr: 178.636
- Brian Scott: 178.389
- Kyle Larson: 178.366
Top 10 Lap Averages Practice Session 3
- Jimmie Johnson: 180.680
- Martin Truex Jr: 180.350
- Austin Dillon: 180.195
- Matt Kenseth: 180.115
- Kyle Larson: 180.054
- Brad Keselowski: 179.974
- Denny Hamlin: 179.778
- Kevin Harvick: 179.729
- Jeff Gordon: 179.385
- Ryan Newman: 179.299
Odds
BRAD KESELOWSKI 5-1
KEVIN HARVICK 5-1
JEFF GORDON 5-1
JIMMIE JOHNSON 6-1
JOEY LOGANO 8-1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 10-1
KYLE BUSCH 12-1
MATT KENSETH 12-1
KASEY KAHNE 15-1
DENNY HAMLIN 15-1
TONY STEWART 20-1
KURT BUSCH 20-1
KYLE LARSON 30-1
CARL EDWARDS 30-1
CLINT BOWYER 40-1
GREG BIFFLE 40-1
RYAN NEWMAN 40-1
JAMIE McMURRAY 50-1
BRIAN VICKERS 50-1
PAUL MENARD 60-1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 200-1
AUSTIN DILLON 200-1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 200-1
ARIC ALMIROLA 300-1
MARCOS AMBROSE 300-1
AJ ALLMENDINGER 300-1
DANICA PATRICK 300-1
CASEY MEARS 500-1
JUSTIN ALLGAIER 500-1
FIELD 500-1
Line Up
Pos Car # Driver Make
1 4 Kevin Harvick Chevrolet
2 22 Joey Logano Ford
3 2 Brad Keselowski Ford
4 78 Martin Truex Jr. Chevrolet
5 3 Austin Dillon Chevrole
t6 31 Ryan Newman Chevrolet
7 18 Kyle Busch Toyota
8 5 Kasey Kahne Chevrolet
9 41 Kurt Busch Chevrolet
10 24 Jeff Gordon Chevrolet
11 48 Jimmie Johnson Chevrolet
12 20 Matt Kenseth Toyota
13 1 Jamie McMurray Chevrolet
14 19 Carl Edwards Toyota
15 47 AJ Allmendinger Chevrolet
16 27 Paul Menard Chevrolet
17 16 Greg Biffle Ford
18 42 Kyle Larson Chevrolet
19 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevrolet
20 43 Aric Almirola Ford
21 33 Brian Scott Chevrolet
22 9 Sam Hornish Jr. Ford
23 14 Tony Stewart Chevrolet
24 13 Casey Mears Chevrolet
25 10 Danica Patrick Chevrolet
26 15 Clint Bowyer Toyota
27 17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Chevrolet
28 55 David Ragan Toyota
29 11 Denny Hamlin Toyota
30 6 Trevor Bayne Ford
31 51 Justin Allgaier Chevrolet
32 7 Alex Bowman Chevrolet
33 35 Cole Whitt Ford
34 26 JJ Yeley Toyota Dr Pepper
35 38 David Gilliland Ford
36 40 Landon Cassill Chevrolet
37 46 Michael Annett Chevrolet
38 34 Brett Moffitt Ford
39 83 Matt DiBenedetto
40 32 Josh Wise Ford
41 23 Jeb Burton Toyota
42 98 Reed Sorenson Ford
43 62 Timmy Hill Chevrolet
From here, we will dive into the analysis for this week
(1) Green Flag: must play in all formats
(2) Yellow Flag: GPP play, comes with some risk
(3) Red Flag: avoid this driver
(4) Black Flag: Dark horse pick– not a stud, and not a value pick. Someone who may give you the edge to win.
(5) White Flag: Extreme value play for the week
(6) Checkered Flag: Pick to win the race.
NOTE: Pricing for each driver has decreased from each week. This is due to the addition of another driver slot.
Green Flag
Martin Truex JR ($8,900):
Martin has been a rocket ship all weekend long; he was fastest in the final 2 practice sessions and was 4th in the first session. Not only was he not outside the Top 4 in his practice sessions, he was 2nd in 10 lap average speed in the last 2 sessions. Since the starting line-up is based on practice times his place differential upside is limited, but I do not see that being that big of an issue this weekend with the speed Truex has had. While he only has 1 Top 10 in the last 4 here, I have the utmost faith in MTJ, Cole Pearn, and Furniture Row Racing this weekend; they have put together their best year ever and will look to take the momentum and confidence into the chase. I am going to go out and say that this team is a legitimate contender for the championship this year, and a Top 5 or even a win this weekend will be a great start.
Brad Keselowski ($10,400):
It’s incredibly tough not to love Keselowski again this weekend with his recent success here. He has 2 wins, 3 Top 5’s, and 4 Top 10’s in his last 4 races here. He’s led the 2nd most laps and has spent 89.3% of his laps inside the Top 15, his average running position of 7.5 and finishing position of 3.5, rank 3rd and 1st among all drivers in the last 4 races. He rolls off 3rd on Sunday so he has the potential to get out front and lead some laps. Keselowski was 3rd, 5th, and 2nd in each of the practice session respectively. Given his prior success here and the speed he has had all year long, do yourself a favor and have a good amount of exposure to Keselowski on Sunday.
Jimmie Johnson ($9,200):
Jimmie Johnson is Jimmie Johnson, and The Chase is starting; we all know how this story usually goes. Jimmie Johnson is the all time leader (2004-2014) when it comes to Chase wins with 25, the next closest is Tony Stewart at 11 so that says a lot. From 2012- 2014, Jimmie has won 5 Chase races, second only to Kevin Harvick who has 6. Johnson has recorded 59 Top 5’s in the Chase since 2004, with 16 of those coming between 2012 and 2014. Jimmie looks like he is getting back to his old self this weekend; he was 12th, 6th, and 6th in the 3 practice sessions, but finished with the 2 fastest 10 lap averages in the final 2 practice sessions. JJ always has a scary good car in the long runs, and Chad Knaus looks to have it tuned up once again this weekend. JJ has recorded 2 Top 5’s and 3 Top 10’s in the last 4, and has not finished outside the Top 15 in that stretch. Jimmie is almost automatic at Chicagoland, and at his price he is very affordable to fit in your line-ups.
Yellow Flag
Austin Dillon ($7,200):
Austin Dillon has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but has had a tough time putting them together consistently. Dillon starts 5th on Sunday which makes him a very risky play due to the risk of a negative place differential, but that being said he has been fast in practice and in his only race here recorded a Top 20. He was 5th, 4th, and 9th in the 3 practice sessions and laid down the 3rd fastest 10 lap average in both of the final sessions. Playing Dillon is a boom or bust option, he could put down a good run and finish in the Top 10 or even Top 5, or he could fall back and kill you with a negative place differential; play at your own risk.
Jamie McMurray ($8,000):
Jamie Mac had a solid run at Richmond last week and made fantasy owners happy. He has not had great success here in the past recording only 1 Top 10 and 2 Top 20’s, but has shown good speed in recent weeks and looks to carry that into this weekend. He was Top 15 in all 3 practice sessions and starts 13th on Sunday, while I am not expecting incredible things out of him this weekend; he has the strong potential to put together a solid finish and gain you those ever so valuable Top 10 or 15 finishing points.
Other Picks:
Ryan Newman
Kasey Kahne
.
Red Flag
AJ Allmendinger ($6,900):
AJ has shown signs of speed on and off all year this year and has put himself in position to snag a win or a few Top 5’s a number of times. Chicagoland is by far not one of Dinger’s strongest tracks; in 3 races here AJ has not recorded a Top 20 and has had an average finish of 23.5. Coupled with that his average place differential is a -7.5, his practice session was average at best ending up 15th, 24th, and 18th. He starts 15th Sunday which is about average for him, but his average finish and negative place differential will keep me away from him this weekend.
Black Flag
Kyle Larson ($8,400):
Larson is always a threat to put together a good run and I think he will do just that this weekend. His talent is undeniable, and if he had better equipment I think he would really be able to be a legitimate contender for a win every weekend. In his only race here, Larson recorded a 3rd place finish and a respectable positive place differential. He was 19th and 20th in the first 2 practice sessions, but jumped to 5th in the last session. He was in the Top 10 in each practice when it came to 10 lap averages and seems to have the car headed in the right direction for tomorrow. Kyle starts 18th on Sunday and has a great chance to pick up a good number of positive place differential points, I fully expect Larson to have a repeat performance of last year and put together a Top 5 finish; bold prediction I know, but the pressure of locking into The Chase is off the team and now they are just looking for a win.
White Flag
None, I love Brian Scott this weekend but he is not available to draft.
Checkered Flag
Martin Truex Jr:
As stated above, I have an overwhelming amount on confidence in MTJ and the Furniture Row team this weekend. They have been sneaky fast all year long and Cole Pearn always seems to provide MTJ a setup with a chance to win. Truex has been incredibly fast, and consistently fast all weekend long. I expect to see MTJ celebrating in victory lane this weekend and start off The Chase with a bang.
