CFB DFS Week 3 (12 PM — DK)

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 19, 2015 - Last Updated on June 27, 2018

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Side note before we get started: If you find yourself watching the South Carolina @ Georgia game at 6 PM EST, look for me in the student section. 🙂


This article will break down each game on the 15-game slate and look at several different options at each position. As always, if there’s anything you’d like to see covered or any other suggestions you may have so we can improve please let us know! You can contact us here on Twitter.


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Let’s get to work!


Air Force @ Michigan State (-24.5) — O/U: 54


Michigan State is coming off of a huge win vs. Oregon last weekend but could a let down be in order? Air Force is coming in 2-0, defeating San Jose State last Saturday 37-16 despite being favored by just 4.5.


Air Force


QB: The potential upset is likely to be non-existent with starting QB Nate Romine ($5,300) out for the season after suffering torn ligaments in his knee. Senior Karson Roberts ($4,700) will lead the option offense, a two-star recruit out of Houston who was originally recruited as an “athlete.” He is just that, and has the ability to make plays with his legs, but beware: Michigan State is 15th in rushing defense on the season and allowed Vernon Adams of Oregon to rush for just 14 yards last Saturday. With his rushing upside, I could see you taking a flier on Roberts but I’m not recommending it.


RB: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER as there are too many backs involved in this offense. It’s not worth the risk against this solid Spartan defense.


WR: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER as the Falcons have completed just 7 passes so far this season



Michigan State


QB: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER as Connor Cook ($8,600) is way too expensive for a QB averaging 16.7 fantasy-points-per-game (FPPG).


RB: I’d imagine one of these backs will have a big day it’s just a matter of predicting which one. I think Madre London ($7,000) is too expensive when you can use his teammate LJ Scott ($5,500) for $1,500 less. Scott has just 7 fewer carries, 11 fewer yards, and the same number of touchdowns (2). London will get the start but Scott is the better play if you’re looking at playing a Spartan back this Saturday.


WR: Aaron Burbridge ($5,900) is the #1 option in the MSU passing game, although Josiah Price ($4,600) does steal his thunder in the red zone. Regardless. Burbridge has averaged 22.9 FPPG thus far and should be in for another strong showing at home.


Illinois @ North Carolina (-8) — O/U: 64.5


The Fighting Illini are yet to be tested, but have put up 96 points and allowed just three vs. Kent State & Western Illinois, combined. After a disappointing start to the season for UNC, the Heels’ look to gain momentum for their first ACC match-up with Georgia Tech in two weeks.




QB: Wes Lunt ($8,100) is way too expensive to consider here. Not sure why he’s priced so high, but it makes him easy to avoid.


RB: Josh Ferguson ($6,300) is much more reasonably priced and is the lead rusher and involved in the passing game as well. He does give away some carries to true freshman Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($4,200) but he’s still the leading rusher and is well-involved in the passing game. Along with his 2 rushing TD’s, Ferguson has another through the air, catching 7 passes for 63 yards. Ferguson was also #2 in receptions in 2014, with 50. He’s not one of the top options on the board, but he could be a real sneaky GPP play.


WR: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER as 6 different players have 5 receptions or more, with 4 players combining for 7 TD’s.


North Carolina


QB: If you read my article for week 1, you know how high I was on Marquise Williams ($9,500). I’m still very high on him as a player but not as much for DFS purposes. I can’t justify his price tag, as UNC seems content with limiting his rushing attempts to keep him healthy, ultimately limiting his upside.


RB: The benefit of the above-mentioned limit, is Elijah Hood ($5,400) who is a ton of fun to watch and a bargain at his price. Hood is sporting a 6.7 yards-per-carry (YPC) and while he’s averaged 18 FPPG so far, it’s only a matter of time before he goes off in a game. I think that game is this week. Illinois was 123rd in FBS against the run last season. Hood is one of my top options at RB on the day in a game with a high over/under that is expected to stay within a touchdown.


WR: Bug Howard ($5,000)Ryan Switzer ($4,900), Quinshad Davis ($4,600) all lead the way for the Tar Heels combining for 25 of the 39 receptions on the season. Only 1 TD has come of the trio, but any of the three could be deep GPP plays on Saturday. I personally will be focusing on Hood and the running game, but I wouldn’t rule out a big game for one of the three. Ranking them in order: Switzer, Howard, and Davis.


Nevada @ Texas A&M (-33.5) — O/U: 65


Since Hall of Fame coach Chris Ault retired at the end of the 2012 season, Nevada has gone 12-15. Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin has gone in the opposite direction, going 30-11 since the beginning of the 2012 season.




QB: Junior Tyler Stewart ($6,000) does have upside in a game with a high over/under, especially since they are projected to be behind for most of it. He’ll be forced to throw quite a bit but can make plays with his legs as well, rushing for 81 yards on 15 carries and a TD.


RB: Don Jackson ($5,200) is averaging 20.2 FPPG but would be a major risk in a game where the Wolfpack will fall behind early


WR: Both Jericho Richardson ($4,900) and Hassan Henderson ($4,600) lead the team with 11 receptions and a touchdown each, with Henderson having 12 more yards. Honestly, I’m not opposed to a Nevada mini-stack (QB/WR/WR) as A&M has given up 40 points on the season, 17 to Arizona State in week 1, and 23 to Ball State last weekend.


Texas A&M


QB: Kyle Allen ($7,400) has been great to start the season, going 25 for 39 (64.1%) for 324 yards for 5 TD’s with just 1 INT. He’s also added a TD on the ground, although he’s not known for his running ability. Despite his early season success, he’s nothing more than a GPP play for DFS purposes Saturday.


RB: Maybe, just maybe, Tra Carson ($6,200) can continue to be the lead back and dominate carries. He’s gotten 39 in the first two games, although he is the lowest of the three backs in YPC (4.0). Freshman Kwame Etwi ($3,700) is averaging 9.7 YPC (even if it’s just on 12 carries), and to make matters more difficult, in between Carson and Etwi, is Brice Dolezal ($4,100) who’s averaged 4.9 YPC on 17 carries.


WR: In a game that’ll more than likely get out of hand early, it’ll be tough to trust any of the A&M receivers. Christian Kirk ($6,000) leads the way with 10 catches, 149 yards, and 2 TD’s and would be the only option I’d consider Saturday. Keeping your options open, Josh Reynolds ($5,400) is 5/81 and a TD while Ricky Seals-Jones ($4,200) is 9/83. Speedy Noil ($4,700) is recovering from a hamstring injury and should not be considered on Saturday.


Tulsa @ Oklahoma (-30) — O/U: 71.5


We’re going to see a few games with over/under’s set over 70, and this one should be full of offense. I don’t expect Oklahoma to cover, but a 48-28 score would be nice.



QB: Dane Evans ($7,400) is off to a solid start, throwing for 745 yards and 4 TD’s. Unfortunately, his upside is limited due to his lack of mobility. I believe there are better options out there so I’ll be fading the junior.


RB: Zack Langer ($5,600) is averaging an impressive 27.1 FPPG with 228 yards and 4 TD’s. However, not far behind is D’Angelo Brewer ($4,200) who has accumulated almost as many yards (225) in 21 fewer carries, 6.3 YPC. Unfortunately, Tulsa’s going to be forced to throw the ball too often to consider using either of the two backs, but certainly keep an eye on them, especially Brewer.


WR: MUST PLAYS: Keevan Lucas ($7,600) and Keyarris Garrett ($5,900) are both in play in both formats as Tulsa should be forced to throw near 40 times. The duo has combined for 26 receptions, 523 yards, with Lucas having three TD’s. I love these two as elite options as Oklahoma has yet to face any passing threat and ranked at the bottom of FBS last season at 117.




QB: Baker Mayfield ($9,300) is off to a hot start, tossing 6 TD’s for 575 yards while adding 2 TD on the ground with 54 yards. Mayfield as the third-highest FPPG on the slate (32.7) and should light up the Tulsa secondary who was 115th last season in passing defense and already 73rd this season. He’s a top option on Saturday.


RB: It’s hard to imagine both a QB and a RB from the same team being considered “top options” but that’s what we have here. Samaje Perine ($9,300) is off to a slow start, averaging 14.8 FPPG and just 3.3 YPC on the ground, but he has been involved in the passing game (5 receptions) and was 8th in the nation in rushing in 2014. Many people will be off of him with the high price tag and low production to start the season, making the sophomore a perfect GPP play this weekend.


WR: Sterling Shepard ($8,400) is the highest-priced option on the board despite limited production to start the season. I love his talent, but for the price I’ll be staying away as he and Mayfield don’t seem to quite have the same rapport as he and Trevor Knight did. Several other OU pass-catchers are in the equation and it’s really tough to predict who will stand out. I’ll be playing the safe route and avoid any of the OU receivers simply due to the fact that it’s unlikely for one individual to stand out statistically.


UNLV @ Michigan (-34.5) — O/U: 48


The Wolverines are undefeated in the Big House under Jim Harbaugh and should stay that way when UNLV visits on Saturday




QB: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER — The Lobos are expected to score just 14 points as of 9/18, and even that may be generous.










RB: Yes, the backfield is crowded at U of M, but De’Veon Smith ($7,400) is the clear leader of the group. Smith steamrolled carrying the ball 23 times for 126 yards and 3 TD’s. There’s no reason he shouldn’t do more of the same this weekend vs. a UNLV defense that ranked dead last in FBS vs. the run and has already allowed 458 yards this season (115th)


WR: Amara Darboh ($5,300) and Jake Butt ($4,400) lead Michigan receivers both with 12 receptions and a touchdown each, with Darboh gaining 33 more yards. Michigan won’t need to throw the ball too much, so I’d play it safe and stick with the rushing attack led by Smith.


Northwestern @ Duke (-4) — O/U: 49


This game is not glorious by DFS standards, but there are a couple of options to consider in a game that is expected to remain close.






RB: Justin Jackson ($6,800) is just a sophomore but is off to a solid start after logging 245 carries last season for 1187 yards and 10 TD’s. He’s accumulated 50 carries in just two games so far, racking up 212 yards despite just one TD. Duke struggled vs. the run last season (98th) and haven’t faced a RB of Jackson’s caliber this season.






QB: Thomas Sirk ($6,600) has been sensational to start the year, leading the team in both passing (604/5) and rushing (24/154/1). Northwestern’s defense has been strong and while I wouldn’t recommend Sirk as a play this week, he certainly has some upside and should see his price increase from here if you wanted to buy low.






Georgia State @ Oregon (-44.5) — O/U: 72


GSU is not an elite offense, but Oregon has struggled stopping anyone, allowing 42 points to Eastern Washington in week 1 and then 31 last week vs. Michigan State. There’s no reason to think GSU won’t score a good number of points, but they also won’t be stopping anyone, as they’ve allowed 55 in the first two games.


Georgia State






WR: Penny Hart ($3,700) is an explosive freshman who is a perfect “boom or bust play.” Hart is averaging 16.9 yards-per-reception and has 3 TD’s on the season. He stands at just 5’9 but is dangerous in space and a deep threat that could really go under the radar on Saturday.




QB: This one could get ugly early so I’ll be avoiding Vernon Adams Jr. ($10,300) and his expensive price tag.


RB: Despite his price tag, Royce Freeman ($10,400) is set to have an absolutely huge day. He’ll go under-owned due to his price but he’s averaging 6 YPC with 4 touchdowns. Freeman has 45 carries with the next closest back sitting at just 12. If you want a strong GPP play you can count on, I have no issue paying up for the star RB here.


WR: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER as Oregon could win this one without throwing a single pass. Even though that won’t be the case, passing will be too limited to consider using any of the Ducks WR’s.


Memphis (-3) @ Bowling Green — O/U: 77.5


That over/under is the highest we’ve seen on a slate all season and we’ll certainly take advantage of it.



QB: Paxton Lynch ($8,900) isn’t worth his price, trust me. Next!


RB: NO OPTIONS TO CONSIDER as several different backs take turns in the running game.


WR: Mose Frazier ($6,300) is the #1 option for the Tigers and should be in for a big game. Frazier is leading the team with 10 receptions for 166 yards and 2 TD’s. This game will stay close and I expect Lynch & Frazier to hook up 7-10 times on Saturday.

Bowling Green


QB: Matt Johnson ($8,700) is currently the nation’s top passer throwing for 915 yards, 129 more than 2nd place, and has averaged 37.2 FPPG.




WR: The ball is being spread out quite a bit here, but I think Roger Lewis ($7,300), Ronnie Moore ($6,000), and Ryan Burbrink ($4,600) are all in play here.


Temple (-13.5) @ Massachusetts — O/U: 55


Top Play: RB Jahad Thomas ($9,500) — Thomas is 2nd in FBS in rushing yards so far this season, averaging 6.0 YPC. He’s carried the ball 55 times in 2 games and should be in line for another heavy workload vs. a Massachusetts defense that was 93rd vs. the run last season.


Auburn @ LSU (-7) — O/U: 48.5


Top Play: RB Leonard Fournette ($9,500) put up 36.9 FPS in game #1 vs. Mississippi State and now gets to face off vs. an Auburn defense that has allowed 399 rushing yards in just 2 games (96th). You’re going to have to pay up, but Fournette is one of the nation’s top rushers and should go under-owned in a game with a low over/under.


Georgia Tech (-2.5) @ Notre Dame — O/U: 55.5


Top Play: QB Justin Thomas ($8,400) is facing his first true test of the season, after having his playing time cut short in the first two contests of the season as Tech went up big, early. Thomas led the team in rushing last season, had 8 rushing TD’s and threw for 18 TD’s as well. Tech’s going to come away with a win here, and Thomas is going to be a big part of it.


Nebraska @ Miami (FL) (-3.5) — O/U: 59.5


Top Play: RB Terrell Newby ($6,600) is at a great price this week, especially since he is the clear #1 back for the Huskers. Newby’s totaled 38 carries, averaging 6.3 YPC and has 4 total TD’s on the season. Miami will be his toughest task thus far this season but I’m going to have some exposure to him simply due his price and the volume he’ll receive.


Northern Illinois @ Ohio State (-35) — O/U: 66.5


Top Play: There are several different directions we could go here by choosing different Ohio State players, but I’m going to go with NIU WR Kenny Golladay ($5,300). The junior from Chicago is off to a fast start, catching 17 passes for 357 yards — an average of 21 YPC. 3 of those 17 receptions were touchdowns. NIU will be forced to throw A LOT in this one and I expect Golladay to be highly-owned.


Virginia Tech (-6.5) @ Purdue — O/U: 49


Top Play: There’s not a whole lot I like in this game but I’ll go with Purdue QB Austin Appleby ($6,000) who has put up 82 passing attempts in two games, with a 62.2 completion percentage. I don’t necessarily recommend him but we needed a top play here :).


Western Kentucky @ Indiana (-1) — O/U: 72


Top Play: This one will be fun to watch. There are several different options you could go with here so I’m going to highlight a player from each team here. The injury to WKU’s top back Leon Allen has opened the door for RB D’Andre Ferby ($5,300) who should dominate the carries on Saturday as well as be involved in the passing game. His price should go up from here, and to me, he’s a near must-play. For Indiana, I love QB Nate Sudfield ($8,300). He’s only thrown for 2 TD’s on the season, but he’s added two with his legs and should light up the WKU secondary with ease.


THANKS for reading this week. Please congratulate our very own Eric Rasmussen and his wife as they welcomed a baby girl into the world on Friday afternoon. Please send him congratulations on Twitter!


Have a great weekend everyone!!



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