Week 1 brought some crazy football games. It was interesting to see the lineups that found themselves on the top of the leaderboard in week 1. Most were made up of a combination of chalk and under owned plays. We will try to hit on some studs and values coming up for week 2 DFS NFL action. These should be considered popular plays that can be used in cash games and mixed into your GPP lineups.
QuarterBack
Studs
Drew Brees vs. TB (DK $7,800) (FD $8,900) –
After watching what Marcus Mariota did to the Bucs in Week 1 in Tampa, I can’t help but be ecstatic to play Brees against the Bucs in Week 2. Mariota threw just 209 yards against them in Week 1, but threw four touchdowns. Brees didn’t play that well in Week 1 on the road against the Cardinals, but ended up throwing for 355 yards and one touchdown to go along with an interception. However, that was on the road where he doesn’t play his best football. During his career, Brees has thrown 227 touchdowns in home games versus 170 touchdowns in road games. Mind you, he’s played more road games. Another nugget, in the last three seasons, Brees has three four touchdown games against the Bucs. He’s a good bet to get you the 300+ yards bonus and could easily torch this defense. He’s as safe as it gets in Week 1 and provides a very high ceiling as well.
Other Studs: Aaron Rodgers (DK $8,300) (FD $9,300), Matt Ryan (DK $7,400) (FD $8,700), and Russell Wilson (DK $7,300) (FD $ $8,500)
Values
Carson Palmer at CHI (DK $6,700) (FD $7,800) –
Palmer picked up where he left off last season before suffering a season ending injury. In the season opener against the Saints, he threw for 307 and three touchdowns. This week he has another favorable matchup as he faces the Bears who were one of the worst defenses last season and kicked off this year by allowing Aaron Rodgers to throw for three touchdowns. Palmer was averaging 271 yards and nearly two touchdowns per game last season prior to getting hurt. He’s be able to produce at a high level when on the field in recent history. The Cardinals are favored on the road against the Bears with a 45.5 point O/U. It’s worth noting it moved up from the O/U it opened at of 44.5. This should be another productive week for Palmer at a reasonable price.
Other Values: Eli Manning (DK $7,100) (FD $8,000), Ryan Tannenhill (DK $7,000) (FD $8,000), and Colin Kaepernick (DK $6,600) (FD $7,800)
Running Backs
Studs
Marshawn Lynch at GB (DK $7,200) (FD $8,500) –
Lynch takes on the Packers who he has played well against in the past. In his last two meetings against Green Bay, he has rushed for 98+ yards in each game and last season scored two touchdowns against them. In Week 1, the Packers struggled to stop the run against the Bears. Lynch had a tough matchup against the Rams in Week 1, but managed to rush for 73 yards (averaging 4.1 ypc). He should continue to run well against the Packers this upcoming week. He’s the fifth most expensive back in DraftKings and the fourth most expensive back in FanDuel, but can easily outshine all of those that are more expensive than him. He offers a very steady floor and some nice upside at a not so expensive price.
Other Studs: Adrian Peterson (DK $7,700) (FD $9,000), Matt Forte (DK $7,700) (FD $8,900), and Jeremy Hill (DK $7,400) (FD $8,400)
Values
Danny Woodhead at CIN (DK $4,000) (FD $6,200) –
I was very high on Woodhead last week and I am again this week. He received all of the red zone carries for the Chargers in Week 1 and scored two touchdowns. He plays a big role in this offense as he is involved in both the passing game and the run game. He is facing a Bengals defense in Week 2 that surrendered 14 catches, 94 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns to the Raiders backs in Week 1. He remains very affordable on both sites and should have no problem hitting value. He’s much more valuable on DraftKings because you receive a full point per reception, whereas in FanDuel you only get half.
Other values: Justin Forsett (DK $6,200) (FD $7,800), Mark Ingram (DK $5,900) (FD $8,000), and Chris Ivory (DK $4,700) (FD $6,900)
Wide Receivers
Studs
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. ATL (DK $8,800) (FD $8,700) –
Let’s take Week 1 with a grain of salt and not start pushing the “ODB is a bust” panic button. In Week 1, Beckham caught five of his eight targets for 44 yards, which is not the eye popping numbers we are used to. This game should be high scoring as neither defense is that good. In fact, the O/U opened at 50 points and moved up a point to 51. The spread is also 2.5 points to the Giants favorite that means this should be a high scoring close game. The Falcons did a solid job in Week 1 against the Eagles receivers, but this is a road game and they still surrendered the fifth most receiving yards in Week 1. With so many top notch receivers in his price range and a poor performance in Week 1, you could see a lower than anticipated ownership percentage. Don’t let the first game be the determining factor of whether you play him or not, just do it!
Other Studs: Antonio Brown (DK $8,800) (FD $9,200), Julio Jones (DK $8,900) (FD $8,800), and Brandin Cooks (DK $7,100) (FD $7,400)
Values
Donte Moncrief vs. NYJ (DK $4,600) (FD $6,000) –
T.Y. Hilton’s status will ultimately determine whether you should start Moncrief or not. If Hilton plays, then Moncrief is no longer a value play. If Hilton doesn’t, Moncrief is a great value. In Week 1 he caught six of his 11 targets. While expecting that many targets consistently is a bit unrealistic, he should still see plenty of looks if Hilton can’t suit up. The Jets are a solid defense, but Antonio Cromartie suffered an injury in the season opener and his status for this game is uncertain. Another factor is the game flow that the Colts play, they are a pass first team and Andrew Luck likes to sling the ball, so the opportunities will be there for Moncrief. At this low price, it shouldn’t be too difficult to hit value for Moncrief. Keep a close eye on Hilton’s status before making a decision.
Other Values: John Brown (DK $5,100) (FD $6,200), Davante Adams (DK $4,900) (FD $6,400), and Cole Beasley (DK $3,300) (FD $5,700)
Tight End
Studs
Rob Gronkowski at BUF (DK $7,300) (FD $8,300) –
There’s a good chance you will see Gronk as my stud each and every week. Regardless of matchup, he’s always in play. In such a volatile position, nobody offers a floor so high as well as a very high ceiling like Gronk does. He proved just that by catching five passes for 94 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1. The Patriots face the Bills in Week 1, who despite having a good defense, Gronk has had much success against. In seven career games, he’s caught nine touchdowns passes against the Bills, catching a touchdown pass in all but one game. He’s also gone over 90 receiving yards in four of those games. He’s as good as it gets and worth every dollar.
Other studs: Jimmy Graham (DK $5,800) (FD $7,100), Greg Olsen (DK $4,900) (FD $6,000), and Martellus Bennett (DK $4,500) (FD ($6,100)
Values
Vernon Davis at PIT (DK $3,000) (FD $5,100) –
Davis led the Niners in all receiving categories in Week 1. While his numbers were not impressive by any means, it’s worth noting that he got the most targets (6), receptions (3), and yards (47). Nearly 25 percent of Kaepernick’s passes went to Davis. The Niners take on the Steelers who allowed four touchdowns to the Patriots tight end in Week 1. While Davis is not Gronk, he’s athletic and versatile enough to take advantage of a suspect defense. At this low price, he should be able to hit value, assuming he continues to see the volume he did in Week 1. If I’m not paying for Gronk, I’ll take the cheapest tight end with a good amount of upside, Davis fits that category.
Other values: Jordan Reed (DK $3,700) (FD $5,000) and Zach Ertz (DK $3,600) (FD $5,200)
