I hope you all enjoyed the break last week with no golf but at least we had football to keep our degenerate juices flowing. Before the break, for the second week in a row, the course played much harder than expected at the Deutsche Bank Championship. With so many favorites missing the cut, it was actually difficult to have a 6/6 lineup even with 70/99 making the cut. It wasn’t all bad though, because Daniel Berger had a T12!!!! That being said, have no fear because the BMW Championship is a no cut event with the top 30/70 golfers advancing to the Tour Championship next week.
The BMW Championship will be held at Conway Farms GC in Lake Forest, Illinois. Note: This is the same course it was played on in 2013 so keep that in mind when looking at course history. Conway Farms is a par 71 that measures at about 7,200 yards. This course is similar to TPC Boston as it is a scorers course and putting will be key once again this week.
KEY STATS:
Birdie Average
Par 4 Scoring
GIR Percentage
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
$TUD PLAYS:
Jason Day
$12,600 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 7-1
Predicted Ownership: Chalk
Jason Day will probably be the highest owned golfer this week and he should be. His last 5 starts are as follows: T12, Win, Win, T12, Win… Yeah you read that right. There is no golfer playing better than Jason right now and on a course where scoring and putting is important, you would be foolish to fade even with the expected high ownership. Oh and by the way, Jason is 1st in Birdie Average AND Par 4 scoring….He had a T4 here in 2013 and he is also top 10 in GIR %, SG:T2G, and SG:Putting…..All DAY this week (pun intended).
Henrik Stenson
$11,400 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 12-1
Predicted Ownership: 18.6%
I expect Stenson to be on most people’s radars. However, because of Stenson’s inability to win in the past few weeks, I feel like most people would rather spend $700 less and grab last week’s winner, Rickie Fowler. For this reason, I think Stenson’s ownership could stay under 20% which means I am going to be rostering him everywhere. Stenson has finished in the top 6 in 3 of his last 4 starts and sets up very nicely with this course. He is ranked first on Tour in GIR Percentage, 10th in Birdie Average and 2nd in SG:T2G. Look for Henrik to keep that putter hot and the momentum going at Conway Farms this week!
Jim Furyk
$10,000 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 20-1
Predicted Ownership: 12.4%
This even feels weird writing for me because I am usually the least interested in playing Furyk, but wow is he a great play this week. Vegas seems to be high on him giving him better odds to win than Bubba, Justin Rose, and other popular golfers. Furyk has a top 5 finish in 3 of his last 5 starts. He is top 10 in Scoring Average, Par 4 Scoring, and 3rd in SG:T2G. Not to mention, he had a solo 3rd place finish here in 2013. It is very difficult to fit multiple 10k guys in your lineup this week and that could mean Furyk will be overlooked. Make sure he is on your radar this week. PS. he shot a 59 in the 2nd round here in 2013…59!!!
VALUE PLAYS:
Danny Lee
$7700 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 70-1
Predicted Ownership: 17.7%
Good ol’ Danny Boy has yet to ever let me down. While he has cooled off a bit since the red hot month of July, he has still been very solid down the stretch. While his finish was just a T33 at the Deutsche, his game was much better than what that score suggests. He was actually in contention going into the 4th round before shooting a 6 over par final round that dropped him down the leaderboard. That being said, Lee has been one of the most consistant golfers over the past few months and there is no reason we should expect that to change this week. He is ranked in the top 25 in both SG:Putting and Birdie Average. At his price, he should be rostered in cash games and GPPs.
Ian Poulter
$7200 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 125-1
Predicted Ownership: 13.2%
Poulter finished T33 last time out at the Deutsche Bank Championship despite a disappointing 2 over par final round on Labor Day. It looks like his game is starting to come back around now that it’s do or die time in the playoffs. Poulter’s strong putting should help him in a big way this week as he needs a strong showing to advance to the Tour Championship. He is ranked 26th in SG:Putting and 32nd in Par 4 Birdie or Better Percentage. And let’s face it, Poulter loves fast European cars…
PUNT PLAY:
Daniel Berger
$6800 (DraftKings)
Odds To Win: 175-1
Predicted Ownership: 5.1%
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Berger’s ownership even over 5% after the T12 last week and because of the tough roster construction this week. Crazy to count on Berger playing well two weeks in a row? Maybe… but he paid off big last week when he had a good chance to make the cut. And with there being no cut this week, he will have no choice but to play all four rounds barring a WD (knock on wood). Besides, it worked last week… what could possibly go wrong?
Guys I’m Fading: Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Billy Horschel, and David Lingmerth
My Winner: Jim Furyk the grinder! This may be the only time I ever predict a Jim Furyk win so soak it in, embrace it, and enjoy it folks!
Love (or Hate) my picks? Tweet at me and let me know! @Jon_Kelly_
