Predicting Ownership percentages in big field GPP tournaments is the biggest trend in DFS NFL right now. If you don’t believe me just take a look across the major content sites that have now added some sort of Thursday Ownership Percentage article from FanDuel contests for week 1. We have been doing that for some time and although it is helpful it is not 100% accurate by Sunday. So to help you all even further we have developed a tool that measures a players mentions on Twitter from a list of well respected and highly followed individuals in the fantasy sports community. Essentially these tweeters are market movers who can cause a players ownership levels to move with only one tweet. Knowing this and the fact that DFS players like to follow the wisdom of the crowd we have spent time perfecting our system to take out the noise and cut right down to what players are creating the most social buzz. This article will help show you who will be a popular play and who is flying under the radar although they have similar projections to the highly discussed player.
DFS is all about exploiting market inefficiencies. Those inefficiencies are being ironed out by the tout explosion; with hundreds, if not thousands of touts and experts, are there truly any sleepers anymore?
By measuring the Twitter output of touts, news sites, and DFS players, we can attempt to bring back the sleeper. We have a measurable picture of what chalk plays are being talked about the most, and the least.
We logged the tweets of hundreds of influential DFS twitter users since Thursday, and counted how many times chalk players have been mentioned.
Note: Chalk plays are defined by taking a player’s projected points and dividing by their salary on Fanduel.
If a chalk play is being talked about a lot, then we can assume it is a “safe” cash game player to roster, because lots of people are talking about him and influencing other people to roster him.
If a chalk play isn’t being talked about a lot, but still has a chalk projection, then we can quantify that the lack of attention will make the player under-owned compared to their projection.
At QB this week, Tyrod Taylor is the cash-game cheat code that everyone is talking about. Because he’s so cheap, he’ll be heavily owned in tourneys too.
Tannehill, Romo, Rodgers & Carson Palmer are the tout-sanctioned Tyrod alternatives. If you want to swerve, Matty Staff has an identical projection to them but hasn’t been mentioned at all.
At a lower price point, Marcus Mariota also has a solid value projection and hasn’t been mentioned much at all either.
At RB, Lacy, Ivory, and Lynch are the Twitter-sanctioned cash game plays.
Jamaal Charles, Lamar Miller, CJ Anderson, and Demarco Murray are less-mentioned but have similar value projections.
At WR,Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Dez, Eddie Royal and OBJ are the Twitter-blessed options.
However, Stevie Johnson is a high-risk lowball option (perhaps if you don’t use Tyrod, you can use Stevie), and Jordan Matthews and Reuben Randle are alternatives to Eddie Royal and Davante for your dice-roll tourneys.
|Odell Beckham Jr.||12||8,900|
Slim pickings at TE this week.
Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham are the twitter-blessed options, but I’d throw Martellus “Black Unicorn” Bennett into a few lineups.