Welcome back for another week of DFS NASCAR. This article will once again focus on the rules of fantasy NASCAR on DraftKings and breakdown what’s important to pay attention to. Following that, we will dive into strategy for this week.
ATTENTION: There has been TWO rule changes, effective 8/2: “Pass Differential” will no longer be scored and has been removed from the system. Also, the number of drivers you are required to roster has gone from 5 to 6.
Official Rules can be found here:
What’s important to know: You will select 6 drivers, staying within a $50,000 salary cap.
Final Position: This is the easy one. The higher your driver finishes, the more points you receive. A 1st place finish receives 46 PTS, while 43rd will receive 1 PT.
Fastest Laps: Each time your driver runs the fastest lap, you will receive +0.5 PTS. Your driver, while unlikely, will have the potential to earn a maximum of (0.5) X (# of laps in the race) PTS.
Laps Led: For each lap your driver leads, you will receive +0.25 PTS. It’s as simple as that.
Place Differential: Place differential will be determined by the difference from where your driver starts, to where he/she finishes. So, if your select driver starts 1st, he/she cannot have a positive place differential. (Example: if your driver qualifies 20th and finishes 10th, he/she will have receive +10 PTS for a positive 10 in the place differential category). Note: If your selected driver has to go to the back at the start of the race for any reason (backup car, engine change) he/she will still maintain the position he/she qualified, for fantasy purposes.
Odds for the Federated Auto Parts 400
Kevin Harvick 9/2
Brad Keselowski 5/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Joey Logano 7/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Kurt Busch 9/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Jimmie Johnson 18/1
Martin Truex Jr. 18/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20/1
Jeff Gordon 20/1
Jamie McMurray 25/1
Kyle Larson 30/1
Kasey Kahne 40/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Clint Bowyer 50/1
Tony Stewart 80/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
Greg Biffle 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
David Ragan 200/1
Aric Almirola 300/1
AJ Allmendinger 500/1
Casey Mears 500/1
Danica Patrick 500/1
Ricky Stenhouse 500/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 500/1
Trevor Bayne 500/1
Line Up
- Joey Logano
- Matt Kenseth
- Brad Keselowski
- Kyle Busch
- David Ragan
- Kevin Harvick
- Carl Edwards
- Kurt Busch
- Jimmie Johnson
- Tony Stewart
- Kyle Larson
- Austin Dillon
- Ryan Newman
- Danica Patrick
- Casey Mears
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Brian Scott
- Justin Allgaier
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Kasey Kahne
- AJ Allmendinger
- Paul Menard
- Jeff Gordon
- Aric Almirola
- Denny Hamlin
- Clint Bowyer
- Michael Annett
- Trevor Bayne
- Dale Earnhardt Jr.
- David Gilliland
- Jamie McMurray
- Sam Hornish
- Matt DiBenedetto
- Cole Whitt
- Landon Cassill
- Alex Bowman
- Brett Moffitt
- Greg Biffle
- Michael McDowell
- Reed Sorenson
- Jeb Burton
- Jeffrey Earnhardt
- JJ Yeley
Stats Posted Below Are For The Last 5 Richmond Races:
Wins
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- Carl Edwards: 1
- Kevin Harvick: 1
- Kurt Busch: 1
- Joey Logano: 1
- Brad Keselowski: 1
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TOP 5’S
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- Kevin Harvick: 3
- Joey Logano: 3
- Jamie McMurray: 3
- Jeff Gordon: 2
- Kurt Busch: 2
- Brad Keselowski: 2
- Clint Bowyer: 2
- Ryan Newman: 1
- Carl Edwards: 1
- Matt Kenseth: 1
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TOP 10’S
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- Joey Logano: 4
- Jeff Gordon: 4
- Kurt Busch: 4
- Matt Kenseth: 4
- Kevin Harvick: 3
- Jamie McMurray: 3
- Clint Bowyer: 3
- Ryan Newman: 3
- Carl Edwards: 3
- Martin Truex Jr: 3
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AVERAGE FINISH
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- Kevin Harvick: 6
- Jeff Gordon: 6.2
- Joey Logano: 7.4
- Kurt Busch: 8.4
- Ryan Newman: 9.2
- Jamie McMurray: 10.2
- Dale Earnhardt Jr: 11.2
- Carl Edwards: 11.4
- Kyle Larson: 13 (3 Races)
- Matt Kesneth: 13.2
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AVERAGE PLACE DIFFERENTIAL
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- Trevor Bayne: 10 (1 Race)
- Ryan Newman: 9.2
- Aric Almirola: 8.4
- Carl Edwards: 8.2
- Dale Earnhardt Jr: 8
- David Gilliland: 7.4
- AJ Allmendinger: 5.6
- Justin Allgaier: 4.4
- Kevin Harvick: 3.6
- Kasey Kahne: 3
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Percent of time spent in Top 15
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- Kevin Harvick: 95%
- Brad Keselowski: 88.7%
- Jamie McMurray: 87.7%
- Matt Kenseth: 85.6%
- Kyle Busch: 82.5%
- Kurt Busch: 82%
- Clint Bowyer: 81.7%
- Jeff Gordon: 80.9%
- Joey Logano: 77.4%
- Dale Earnhardt Jr: 74.2%
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Laps Lead
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- Brad Keselowski: 648
- Kurt Busch: 400
- Jeff Gordon: 222
- Clint Bowyer: 185
- Matt Kenseth: 180
- Joey Logano: 140
- Carl Edwards: 46
- Kevin Harvick: 45
- Kyle Busch: 40
- Jamie McMurray: 10
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From here, we will dive into the analysis for this week
(1) Green Flag: must play in all formats
(2) Yellow Flag: GPP play, comes with some risk
(3) Red Flag: avoid this driver
(4) Black Flag: Dark horse pick– not a stud, and not a value pick. Someone who may give you the edge to win.
(5) White Flag: Extreme value play for the week
(6) Checkered Flag: Pick to win the race.
NOTE: Pricing for each driver has decreased from each week. This is due to the addition of another driver slot.
Green Flag
Kevin Harvick ($11,400): Once again Kevin Harvick finds his way into my green flag section this week, and for good reason. While he comes in at a whopping 22.8% of the salary cap, he is a must play in all formats. Harvick was 4th and 1st in the 2 practices respectively this weekend, coupled with that speed he had the 2nd fastest 10 lap average in practice 1 and the 4th fastest 10 lap average in practice 2. Over the last 5 races here Harvick has been dominant; running inside the Top 15 95% of the time, while recording 1 win, 3 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, and an average finish of 6. With the way he has been running as of late, he is a must play this weekend.
Yellow Flag
Kyle Larson ($8,000): It seems like Larson has not left this section all year long due to his consistency, he has burnt numerous people this year but has also performed great for a number of others. In a small sample size at Richmond Larson has been able to record 2 Top 15’s and 3 Top 20’s. While those numbers don’t stand out, I’m basing this pick off of “what have you done for me lately.” Over the last 6 Larson has had an average finish of 16.17 with 2 Top 10’s and 5 Top 20’s. He was very fast at Darlington and has had great speed all weekend; he was quickest in first practice and 17th in the second session. He recorded the 5th fastest 10 lap average in the second session as well. While there is a risk with rostering Larson, he is well worth the shot as he has a decent chance for some positive place differential points starting 10th and he will be motivated for a win trying to lock into the chase.
Red Flag
Danica Patrick ($5,800): While it may seem enticing to roster Danica this weekend due to her price and surprising speed in practice, don’t! You can find value elsewhere. She was very surprisingly 12th and 7th in each practice session, and rolls off 14th tonight. Here is why you need to avoid Danica tonight; she has only recorded 1 Top 20 over the last 5 at Richmond and has only spent 3.3% of her time in the top 15, yes you read that right, 3.3%. Coupled with that her average finish over her last 6 is 25.67. I will be avoiding Danica everywhere tonight, and you should too.
Black Flag
David Ragan ($6,400): Talk about taking a shot, I’ve had a tough time putting any faith in Ragan this year, but the team has been finding speed and without some bad luck would have put together some great finishes this year. I almost put Ragan in the Yellow Flag section, but could not just pull the trigger on him that hard. He was 19th and 25th in each practice session respectively and managed to find some speed in qualifying. There is a huge risk for negative place differential here as Ragan has only finished in the Top 20 1 time in the last 5 races here, and has an average finish of 27. That being said, Ragan has shown that he can sometimes get up front and stay near the front this season so he is worth a shot.
White Flag
Justin Allgaier ($5,600): This is a slightly risk white flag pick due to the fact that if he faces an issue, there is a possibility for a large negative place differential. That being said there is great reason to love Allgaier this weekend and I will tell you why. To start his 22nd overall fastest time in the first practice session may not stand out, but what does is he ran the fastest 10 lap average out of 28 drivers to run 10 or more consecutive laps in the first session. While he has recorded only 1 Top 20 in his last 3 here, he is poised to add another Top 20 or even Top 15 tonight.
Checkered Flag
Brad Keselowski ($11,200): Once again going with Keselowski to win this weekend, he almost pulled it off but a late race charge but Edwards last week spoiled that. Brad was 3rd and 9th in each of the practice sessions this week and will roll off 3rd in the race tonight. He had the fastest 10 lap average in the final practice sessions and looks to transfer that speed into tonight’s race. Over the last 5 races here he has spent 88.7% of the time in the Top 15 and led an incredible 648 laps while recording 2 Top 5’s and 2 Top 10’s. Keselowski is in prime position to take the win tonight and gain some momentum going into the chase, and I think he will do just that.
