So, let’s be contrarian, shall we? Let’s be contrarian, but be smart. Anyone can be “contrarian” in daily fantasy sports by inserting in the 5th WR on the depth chart who may see 10-12 snaps. That’s not what we’re going for. There’s a strategic way to play contrarian, especially in a short slate, like the two games we see on Monday. Ohio State will visit Virginia Tech to cap off week 1, while Western Kentucky will host the Lousiana Tech Bulldogs to kick off week 2. I can’t remember a time where we have two games on the same slate that belong to two different “weeks” but we will today.
This article will focus on DraftKings college football Monday night contests, focusing specifically on GPP’s for the night’s slate. We will look at the players who are projected to be the highest-owned in tonight’s GPP’s and then cover the option you may be able to turn to in an effort to be contrarian with your lineups. Expect a lot of overlap in tonight’s contests, but hopefully, this article will allow you to have the slight edge that will bring in some money and turn those dreadful Monday’s into the best one yet. Let’s get started!
For those of you who have not played college football on DraftKings here is the lineup format:
$50,000 salary cap
QB:
QB:
RB:
RB:
WR:
WR:
WR:
FLEX (RB/WR)
FLEX (RB/WR)
Note: A tight-end counts as a “WR” for DFS purposes on DraftKings.
You can read all of DraftKings college football rules here.
Quarterback
Everyone will be on… Brandon Doughty ($10,300) and rightfully so! He’s the nation’s reigning top passer and despite his struggles in the first game vs. Vandy, he should pick up right where he left off last season and tear apart this LT defense. WKU is only favored by -2 and this game will be high-scoring with an over/under of 67.
Instead, you should be different with: J.T. Barrett ($9,300) who averaged 34.8 FPPG compared to Doughty’s 32.6 FPPG on DK. Doughty may throw for 400 yards and 4 TD’s (16 PTS + 16 PTS = 32) but Barrett may throw for 200 yards, 1 TD (12 PTS), and rush for 75 yards for 2 TD’s (19.5), only a 1/2 point away from Doughty at $1,000 less. There ARE some concerns here: There will be competition with Cardale Jones ($9,000) but I expect Barrett to throw the ball the majority of the time while Jones may get some carries in the red zone like Tim Tebow did at Florida. There’s obviously a sizable amount of risk here, as with any GPP play, but Barrett’s my guy tonight.
Everyone will be on… Jeff Driskel ($8,700). He’s the cheapest starter aside from Michael Brewer ($5,300) but Brewer offers very little upside. Driskel has excellent mobility and was 12/15 passing in his season debut and should light up the WKU secondary.
Instead you should be different with: NO ONE. Being contrarian isn’t all about being different on every position. Driskel is in a great spot, at a price that while it’s probably too high, is cheaper than the other starters, as mentioned.
Note: I could see Brewer being highly-owned just due to his ridiculously-low price and the need to save money somewhere. I don’t recommend it, but I expect it to be a popular option, paired with Doughty.
Running Back
Everyone will be on… Ezekiel Elliot ($7,900) because his price is way too low for a RB of his caliber. He went over 220 yards in the last three games of the 2014 season (including the post-season) and had 2 or more TD’s in all three of those games.
Instead you should be different with: NO ONE. He averaged 25.7 FPPG compared to Leon Allen ($9,500) at 27.7 and Kenneth Dixon ($10,400) at 27.6 FPPG. Take the discount here.
Everyone will be on… J.C. Coleman ($4,000) again because of his price. He’ll start Monday night and he’s just too cheap to pass up on. There’s reports that he may give up snaps to Trey Edmunds ($3,600) in short-yardage situations but Coleman has much more upside.
Instead you should be different with: NO ONE. I said you’d have a lot of overlap and you will. I don’t think Coleman will have an overly productive game but it’s a no-brainer at his price.
Leon Allen & Kenneth Dixon are both elite options if you decide to save at QB and go with Brewer. I’d prefer Allen over Dixon.
Wide Receiver
Everyone will be on… Trent Taylor ($5,700) or at least they should be. Taylor was the clear #1 option last season, with 64 receptions and 9 TD’s. It’s still too early to see if maybe Driskell’s favorite will be Paul Turner ($6,500) who hauled in 42 balls for 514 yards last season and let the team in game #1 of 2015 with 3 receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown.
Instead you should be different with: Again, no one. Seems repetitive but that’s what you get on a 2-game slate. Taylor is the cheaper of the two and I expect the play-calling to favor him more than Taylor as offensive coordinator Tony Peterson looks to get the ball to #5.
Everyone will be on… Jared Dangerfield ($6,400) after a monster 2014, where he had 69 catches for 825 yards and 11 TD’s.
Instead you should be different with: Antwane Grant ($4,400) who caught 5 receptions for 29 yards last game. No, he didn’t rack up the yardage but you have to love the targets. The yardage will come, hopefully as soon as tonight.
Good luck tonight!
Enjoy your Monday Labor day,
Tyler
