DFS NASCAR Darlington Southern 500

Welcome back for another week of DFS NASCAR and welcome to one of NASCAR’s fastest tracks. This article will once again focus on the rules of fantasy NASCAR on DraftKings and breakdown what’s important to pay attention to. Following that, we will dive into strategy for this week.

ATTENTION: There has been TWO rule changes, effective 8/2: “Pass Differential” will no longer be scored and has been removed from the system. Also, the number of drivers you are required to roster has gone from 5 to 6.

Official Rules can be found here:

What’s important to know: You will select 6 drivers, staying within a $50,000 salary cap.

Final Position: This is the easy one. The higher your driver finishes, the more points you receive. A 1st place finish receives 46 PTS, while 43rd will receive 1 PT.

Fastest Laps: Each time your driver runs the fastest lap, you will receive +0.5 PTS. Your driver, while unlikely, will have the potential to earn a maximum of (0.5) X (# of laps in the race) PTS.

Laps Led: For each lap your driver leads, you will receive +0.25 PTS. It’s as simple as that.

Place Differential: Place differential will be determined by the difference from where your driver starts, to where he/she finishes. So, if your select driver starts 1st, he/she cannot have a positive place differential. (Example: if your driver qualifies 20th and finishes 10th, he/she will have receive +10 PTS for a positive 10 in the place differential category). Note: If your selected driver has to go to the back at the start of the race for any reason (backup car, engine change) he/she will still maintain the position he/she qualified, for fantasy purposes.

Odds for the Bojangles’ Southern 500

KYLE BUSCH 5-1
KEVIN HARVICK 6-1
JOEY LOGANO 7-1
MATT KENSETH 7-1
DENNY HAMLIN 8-1
CARL EDWARDS 8-1
JIMMIE JOHNSON 10-1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 10-1
KURT BUSCH 15-1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 15-1
JEFF GORDON 20-1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 20-1
KYLE LARSON 20-1
KASEY KAHNE 30-1
JAMIE McMURRAY 40-1
RYAN NEWMAN 60-1
CLINT BOWYER 75-1
TONY STEWART 100-1
AUSTIN DILLON 100-1
RYAN BLANEY 100-1
DAVID RAGAN 100-1
PAUL MENARD 100-1
GREG BIFFLE 100-1
CHASE ELLIOTT 100-1
DANICA PATRICK 500
ARIC ALMIROLA 300-1
AJ ALLMENDINGER 500-1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 500-1
SAM HORNISH JR 500-1
FIELD 500-1

Line Up

(Via wtop.com)

(2) Brad Keselowski, Ford, 178.874.
(41) Kurt Busch, Chevrolet, 177.588.
(4) Kevin Harvick, Chevrolet, 177.415.
(22) Joey Logano, Ford, 177.319.
(24) Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet, 177.192.
(11) Denny Hamlin, Toyota, 176.905.
(78) Martin Truex Jr., Chevrolet, 176.848.
(17) Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ford, 176.67.
(21) Ryan Blaney, Ford, 176.195.
(18) Kyle Busch, Toyota, 176.075.
(43) Aric Almirola, Ford, 175.962.
(27) Paul Menard, Chevrolet, 175.297.
(19) Carl Edwards, Toyota, 177.511.
(20) Matt Kenseth, Toyota, 177.217.
(5) Kasey Kahne, Chevrolet, 177.204.
(42) Kyle Larson, Chevrolet, 177.134.
(14) Tony Stewart, Chevrolet, 177.045.
(6) Trevor Bayne, Ford, 177.013.
(48) Jimmie Johnson, Chevrolet, 176.86.
(1) Jamie McMurray, Chevrolet, 176.568.
(55) David Ragan, Toyota, 176.264.
(25) Chase Elliott, Chevrolet, 176.119.
(31) Ryan Newman, Chevrolet, 175.943.
(16) Greg Biffle, Ford, 153.498.
(83) Matt DiBenedetto, Toyota, 177.339.
(88) Dale Earnhardt Jr., Chevrolet, 177.
(51) Justin Allgaier, Chevrolet, 177.
(15) Clint Bowyer, Toyota, 176.714.
(3) Austin Dillon, Chevrolet, 176.682.
(10) Danica Patrick, Chevrolet, 176.613.
(40) Landon Cassill, Chevrolet, 176.594.
(13) Casey Mears, Chevrolet, 176.511.
(9) Sam Hornish Jr., Ford, 176.372.
(47) AJ Allmendinger, Chevrolet, 176.144.
(7) Alex Bowman, Chevrolet, 176.025.
(26) J.J. Yeley, Toyota, 175.981.
(35) Cole Whitt, Ford, Owner Points.
(38) David Gilliland, Ford, Owner Points.
(46) Michael Annett, Chevrolet, Owner Points.
(34) Brett Moffitt, Ford, Owner Points.
(23) Jeb Burton, Toyota, Owner Points.
(33) Mike Bliss, Chevrolet, Owner Points.
(98) T.J. Bell, Ford, Owner Points.

Stats Posted Below Are For The Last 5 Darlington Races:

TOP 5’S

- Denny Hamlin: 3
- Jimmie Johnson: 3
- Kevin Harvick: 2
- Matt Kenseth: 2
- Jeff Gordon: 2
- Kyle Busch: 1
- Carl Edwards: 1
- Tony Stewart: 1
- Ryan Newman: 1
- Greg Biffle: 1

TOP 10’S

- Denny Hamlin: 4
- Kyle Busch: 4
- Ryan Newman: 4
- Jimmie Johnson: 3
- Kevin Harvick: 3
- Matt Kenseth: 3
- Jeff Gordon: 3
- Carl Edwards: 3
- Tony Stewart: 3
- Greg Biffle: 2

AVERAGE FINISH

- Denny Hamlin: 6
- Kyle Busch: 6.8
- Kyle Larson: 8 (1 Race)
- Carl Edwards: 8.8
- Kevin Harvick: 9
- Matt Kenseth: 9.8
- Austin Dillon: 11 (1 Race)
- Ryan Newman: 11.4
- Tony Stewart: 11.4
- Jimmie Johnson: 11.8

AVERAGE PLACE DIFFERENTIAL

- Matt Kenseth: 10.2
- Danica Patrick: 10 (3 Races)
- Carl Edwards: 9.2
- Kyle Larson & Austin Dillon: 9 (1 Race Each)
- Dale Earnhardt Jr: 8.8
- Regan Smith: 8.8 (4 Races)
- Kevin Harvick: 7.4
- Tony Stewart: 7.2
- Kyle Busch: 7
- Travis Kvapil 4.6

A Few Notes To Keep In Mind:

In the last 6 races, with the exception of Regan Smith in 2011, the winner has started no worse than 12^th.
A Chevy has won 4 of the last 6 races, Toyota has won the other 2
In the last 2 races JGR has been dominant recording 1 win, 3 top 5’s, and 5 top 10’s between their slate of drivers.
The low-downforce package will be ran this weekend (Remember Kentucky?)

From here, we will dive into the analysis for this week

(1) Green Flag: must play in all formats

(2) Yellow Flag: GPP play, comes with some risk

(3) Red Flag: avoid this driver

(4) Black Flag: Dark horse pick– not a stud, and not a value pick. Someone who may give you the edge to win.

(5) White Flag: Extreme value play for the week

(6) Checkered Flag: Pick to win the race.

NOTE: Pricing for each driver has decreased from each week. This is due to the addition of another driver slot.

Green Flag

Brad Keselowski ($10,000) & Kevin Harvick ($10,500): With a limited amount of time to write this weekend I am not able to go in depth with each driver like I have in recent weeks, that being said it is obvious that Keselowski and Harvick are two of the top contenders to win this weekend. They have both been incredibly fast here this weekend and in recent years; remember Harvick’s dominance last year? I expect one if not both of these drivers to lead a bunch of laps this weekend and I am very high on one of these two putting it in victory lane, do yourself a favor and try to roster both drivers.

Yellow Flag

Kyle Larson ($8,500)

Ryan Blaney ($7,200)

Red Flag

Paul Menard ($7,700): It’s understandable to want to roster Menard this weekend after the speed he had in practice, but don’t fall into the trap. In the last 2 races here Menard has finished no better than 19^th, and has had an average finish of 30^th; do yourself a favor and lay off Menard and find someone else in his price range.

Black Flag

Greg Biffle ($7,400)

White Flag

Justin Allgaier ($6,400)

Landon Cassil ($5,300)

Checkered Flag

Brad Keselowski ($10,000): It’s hard not to see Keselowski parking it in victory lane this weekend, he’s been a rocket ship in practice and is starting on the pole. With the difficulty of passing at Darlington, and the low-aero package in play Keselowski should stay up front all race and come away with the W.