MLB DFS Strategy 8/29

Written By PlayPicks Staff on August 29, 2015 - Last Updated on June 27, 2018
MLB DFS Strategy

We have a spread out Saturday slate with a few different options for roster lock. The main slate locks tonight at 6:05 ET and has 11 games to choose from. Lets take a quick look at the game lines and then get into my favorite pitchers and stacks to use throughout the day.


Game Lines


Cardinals(-115) @ Giants 7
Marlins @ Nationals(-225) 7.5
Rockies @ Pirates(-220) 8
Padres(-120) @ Phillies 8.5
Reds @ Brewers(-140) 8.5
Cubs(-104) @ Dodgers 7
Tigers @ Blue Jays(-235) 9.5
Royals @ Rays(-115) 7
Astros(-145) @ Twins 8
Mariners @ White Sox(-120) 8
Angels @ Indians
Orioles(-107) @ Rangers 9
Red Sox @ Mets(-200) 7
Yankees(-185) @ Braves 7.5
Athletics @ D’Backs(-140) 8.5







Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians (FD $11,700, DK $12,900) – This game does not have a line listed yet and I have a feeling they might be looking to push Kluber back a day after they scratched Salazar Friday.  For now I will talk about Kluber as if he will be on the mound, but please make sure that he is in fact taking the mound.  Kluber faced the Angels earlier this season and was not treated well by them as he gave up 5 runs in 5.2 innings while striking out just 4 and allowing 10 hits.  That game came on the road in LA and this one will be in Cleveland, where Kluber has pitched a ton better in 2015. Kluber has allowed an August average of just .182 in 37.1 innings while striking out 41. 


Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (FD $11,500, DK $11,700) – deGrom is on my personal s**t list after his last start really destroyed a monster night for me as the rest of my teams put up a ton of runs. But they say that you have to have a short term memory in this industry, so that is what I am going to do.  deGrom and the Mets are a -200 home favorite as they take on the Boston Red Sox.  The game has an over/under of 7 runs and as I type this, deGrom’s teammate, Matt Harvey, is dominating the Red Sox lineup.  I look for deGrom to bounce back after his terrible outing against the Phillies.  Some people may be turned off of him which could lead to a solid ownership %.  


Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs (FD $10,600, DK $10,900) – Lester and the Cubs are a -104 favorite in a game with an over/under of 7 runs as they take on Mat Latos and the Dodgers.  This will be Lester’s second start against the Dodgers this season and I think he performs a little better than he did in that last start as he went just 4 innings, allowing 4 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks, while striking out 5.  Lester has had a really up and down August, however he is coming off of an excellent start as he went 8.2 innings and allowed just 1 run while putting up 6 K’s. 




Luis Severino, New York Yankees (FD $7100, DK $10,400) – Severino’s price on DK has really shot up, however his price on FD keeps him at an extreme value for Saturday.  He and the Yankees are a -185 favorite in Atlanta and the game has an over/under of just 7.5 runs.  Severino has looked excellent since coming up in the second half and I think the Yankees have something pretty special with this kid. I love the match-up and I think he could be a sneaky option on DK, even with his price being elevated. The Braves lineup does not scare me and his change-up should neutralize guys like Freeman and Markakis.   


J.A. Happ, Pittsburgh Pirates (FD $7600, DK $7700) – Happ has been a pleasant surprise since being acquired by the Pirates after being DFA’d by the Seattle Mariners.  Happ has an ERA of 2.08 in 21.2 August innings and has managed 22 punch outs in those innings.  He and the Pirates are a -220 home favorite as they face the Rockies again.  The Rockies struggle mightily against left handed pitching and Happ should be able to continue his solid run and isn’t going to cost you all too much, considering he is a -220 favorite.  



GPP Plays


Lance Lynn, St Louis Cardinals (FD $8800, DK $10,200) – Lynn and the Cardinals are a -115 favorite as they take on the Giants.  Lynn has made one start against the Giants this season and went 6.2 innings and allowed 2 runs on just 4 hits, while striking out 6.  He struggled with his control in that game as he walked 5 batters.  The match-up is not completely ideal, however Lynn is one of the safer starting pitchers in the majors as you should be able to count on a quality start from him with about as many K’s as innings pitched.  His price is certainly up and I think people will immediately skip over him with the guys that are around his price point.


Andrew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays (FD $8500, DK $8000) – Hutchison and the Blue Jays are a -235 home favorite as they take on the Tigers again.  Hutchison has been a completely different pitcher when he pitches at the Rogers Centre.  For whatever reason, he just seems to dominate at an extreme hitters park.  The Tigers lineup is certainly dangerous and can certainly get to any pitcher they face, however I like the splits advantage that Hutchison has in this game and think he is a sneaky option at his price point. 






Stud Stacks


Toronto Blue Jays: Troy Tulowitzki (FD $3600, DK $4300), Josh Donaldson (FD $5900, DK $5800), Jose Bautista (FD $5300, DK $5500), Edwin Encarnacion (FD $5200, DK $5300) – The Blue Jays get to take on Buck Farmer and his 7.80 ERA in the majors this season.  I feel very confident stacking anybody in the top 6 of the Jays lineup.  As always, make sure to pay attention to the lineup they send out as they tend to give Encarnacion a day off here and there and this could be one of those games as its one of the first of the day. 


Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado (FD $3900, DK $4900), Gerardo Parra (FD $3400, DK $4300), Adam Jones (FD $3500, DK $4500), Chris Davis (FD $4200, DK $4700) – This game has the second highest over/under of Saturday and that would put the Orioles as one of the highest projected scoring teams as they are the favorite in Texas.  The ball can certainly fly all over the park and I think the O’s offense will be all over Perez and the Rangers.  The O’s are dealing with a couple of injuries right now so you will want to double check the lineup.  I would feel comfortable with any of their top 6 in this match-up.



Other Stacks


Texas Rangers: Delino DeShields (FD $3300, DK $4000), Shin-Soo Choo (FD $3100, DK $3800), Prince Fielder (FD $3000, DK $4200), Adrian Beltre (FD $3400, DK $4200) – Like I said above, this game has the second highest over/under of Saturday and the line of the game is very close, which means both teams are projected to do a bit of scoring.  Jimenez has given up 20 runs in August already and I think the Rangers have a chance to knock him out early.  I would look at anybody in the top 5 or 6 for the Rangers and if you play on a site where Moreland can be used in the OF, I would most definitely look to include him and possibly over Choo.


Arizona Diamondbacks: A.J. Pollock (FD $4500, DK $5400), Paul Goldschmidt (FD $4600, DK $5900), Wellington Castillo (FD $3400, DK $3500), Yasmany Tomas (FD $2200, DK $3600) – The D’Backs get to take on a lefty in this one and there is no better time to use them than when they are doing so.  I think you can include anybody in this lineup as guys like Hill, Owings and Ahmed can do some sneaky work against left handed pitching.  I think Inciarte or Peralta could make interesting inclusions in a left on left situation.




Other Thoughts


The slates seem to be pretty spread out on this Saturday so you will want to really look over the schedule and make sure you focus on the slates you are most comfortable with.  I tried to give you some guys around the slates and hopefully it helps you take down something big.  There have been some pretty hot offenses around baseball lately and you will want to make sure you have some exposure to those teams as teams tend to carry their hot streaks for a week to ten days at a time.  Do not be afraid to ride those teams, even if they are facing a pretty solid pitcher as when a team is hot, there is generally little a pitcher can do.  When it comes to making your stacks, should you believe the team you are stacking is going to be highly owned, look for ways to differentiate your stack from others.  Say somebody in the middle of the stack you are using has been in a slump and just is not swinging it very confidently, you can certainly look to leave him out and use somebody at his price point in his place to try and differentiate. This gives you exposure to another guy and then creates another spot where you can add a guy from the team you are stacking, maybe its the 9 hitter who is in a positive spot to give you a 9-3 stack or something along those lines.  Best of luck!





My DONG of the Night

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

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