Cheez-It 355 @ The Glen (DFS NASCAR)

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on August 9, 2015 - Last Updated on June 27, 2018

Welcome back for another week of DFS NASCAR! Last week’s race was crazy with several drivers running out of fuel resulting in Matt Kenseth stealing a win. This week should be nothing but skill as the NSCS Circuit heads to their second road course of the season, Watkins Glen. This article will once again focus on the rules of fantasy NASCAR on DraftKings and breakdown what’s important to pay attention to. Following that, we will dive into strategy for this week. Our goal is to pick the drivers who we anticipate will perform strong, regardless of where they finish. I am proud to announce (once again) that I’ve teamed up with Tyler Salisbury, our newest NASCAR writer. We will be co-writing this piece from here on out. Please welcome him to the PlayPicks team! 

 

Note: My (Tyler Badger) picks will be written as: “Driver Name” while Tyler Salisbury’s picks will be written in capital letters, such as “DRIVER NAME.” If a section only has one pick, we both had the same pick for that section. 🙂 

 

ATTENTION: There has been TWO rule changes, effective 8/2: “Pass Differential” will no longer be scored and has been removed from the system. Also, the number of drivers you are required to roster has gone from 5 to 6.

 

Official Rules can be found here:

 

What’s important to know:  You will select 6 drivers, staying within a $50,000 salary cap.

 

Final Position: This is the easy one. The higher your driver finishes, the more points you receive. A 1st  place finish receives 46 PTS, while 43rd will receive 1 PT.

 

Fastest Laps: Each time your driver runs the fastest lap, you will receive +0.5 PTS. Your driver, while unlikely, will have the potential to earn a maximum of (0.5) X (# of laps in the race) PTS.

 

Laps Led: For each lap your driver leads, you will receive +0.25 PTS. It’s as simple as that.

 

Place Differential: Place differential will be determined by the difference from where your driver starts, to where he/she finishes.  So, if your select driver starts 1st, he/she cannot have a positive place differential. (Example: if your driver qualifies 20th and finishes 10th, he/she will have receive +10 PTS for a positive 10 in the place differential category). Note: If your selected driver has to go to the back at the start of the race for any reason (backup car, engine change) he/she will still maintain the position he/she qualified, for fantasy purposes.

 

Odds for the Cheez-It 355 @ The Glen

 

AJ ALLMENDINGER 6-1
KURT BUSCH 6-1
KYLE BUSCH 6-1
KEVIN HARVICK 8-1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 8-1
JOEY LOGANO 10-1
CARL EDWARDS 12-1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 15-1
JEFF GORDON 15-1
JIMMIE JOHNSON 15-1
TONY STEWART 15-1
CLINT BOWYER 20-1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 30-1
JAMIE McMURRAY 30-1
SAM HORNISH JR 30-1
KASEY KAHNE 30-1
MATT KENSETH 30-1
GREG BIFFLE 50-1
RYAN NEWMAN 50-1
KYLE LARSON 50-1
DENNY HAMLIN 50-1
PAUL MENARD 60-1
ARIC ALMIROLA 200-1
AUSTIN DILLON 200-1
DANICA PATRICK 200-1
CASEY MEARS 200-1
BORIS SAID 200-1
JUSTIN ALLGAIER 300-1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 500-1
FIELD 300-1

 

Line Up

 

(via SBNation.com)

1              A.J. Allmendinger ($10,200)

2              Martin Truex, Jr. ($8,800)

3              Tony Stewart ($8,800)

4              Kevin Harvick ($10,000)

5              Jeff Gordon ($8,700)

6              Kyle Larson ($7,500)

7              Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($8,200)

8              Kyle Busch ($10,500)

9              Jimmie Johnson ($8,900)

10           Austin Dillon ($6,600)

11           Brad Keselowski ($9,900)

12           Justin Allgaier ($6,600)

13           Denny Hamlin ($7,600)

14           Kurt Busch ($10,400)

15           Carl Edwards ($9,200)

16           Joey Logano ($9,600)

17           Jamie McMurray ($7,900)

18           Clint Bowyer ($8,300)

19            David Ragan ($6,200)

20           Ryan Newman ($7,500)

21           Aric Almirola ($6,800)

22           Danica Patrick ($6,600)

23           Kasey Kahne ($8,000)

24           Sam Hornish, Jr. ($7,800)

25           Greg Biffle ($7,400)

26           Matt Kenseth ($8,100)

27           Matt DiBenedetto ($5,600)

28           Paul Menard ($7,300)

29           Casey Mears ($6,700)

30           Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,500)

31           Michael McDowell ($5,600)

32           Chris Buescher ($5,600)

33           Cole Whitt ($5,600)

34           Trevor Bayne ($6,100)

35           Alex Kennedy ($5,600)

36           Landon Cassill ($5,900)

37           David Gilliland ($6,000)

38           Boris Said ($6,400)

39           Alex Bowman ($5,700)

40           Michael Annett ($5,800)

41           Jeb Burton ($5,700)

42           J.J. Yeley ($5,700)

43           Timmy Hill ($5,600)

 

 

TOP DRIVER AVERAGES OVER THE LAST 5 RACES

 

AVERAGE FINISH

  • AJ ALLMENDINGER- 5.8
  • CARL EDWARDS- 8
  • MARTIN TRUEX JR- 9
  • SAM HORNISH JR- 9.5
  • KEVIN HARVICK- 10.4
  • KYLE BUSCH- 11.8
  • BRAD KESELOWSKI- 12.2
  • MATT KENSETH- 13.4
  • JIMMIE JOHNSON- 15.4
  • CASEY MEARS- 15.8

 

TOP 5’S

  • AJ ALLMENDINGER- 3
  • CARL EDWARDS- 3
  • MARTIN TRUEX JR- 2
  • SAM HORNISH JR- 2
  • KEVIN HARVICK- 2
  • KYLE BUSCH- 2
  • MATT KENSETH- 1
  • CASEY MEARS- 1
  • JIMMIE JOHNSON- 1
  • BRAD KESELOWSKI- 1

 

TOP 10’S

  • MARTIN TRUEX JR- 4
  • AJ ALLMENDINGER- 3
  • CARL EDWARDS- 3
  • SAM HORNISH JR- 3
  • KEVIN HARVICK- 3
  • KYLE BUSCH- 3
  • MATT KENSETH- 3
  • CASEY MEARS- 3
  • JIMMIE JOHNSON- 2
  • CLINT BOWYER- 2

 

AVERAGE PLACE DIFFERENTIAL

  • DANICA PATRICK- 18.5
  • LANDON CASSIL- 12.3
  • CASEY MEARS- 11.2
  • DAVID GILLILAND- 9
  • TRAVIS KVAPIL- 9
  • RICKY STENHOUSE JR- 8
  • KEVIN HARVICK- 8
  • ALEX KENNEDY- 6.5
  • MATT KENSETH- 6
  • MARTIN TRUEX JR- 5.2

 

 

 

From here, we will dive into the analysis for this week

 

(1) Green Flag: must play in all formats

 

(2) Yellow Flag: GPP plays, come with some risk

 

(3) Red Flag: avoid these drivers

 

(4) Black Flag: Dark horse pick– not a stud, and not a value pick. Someone who may give you the edge to win.

 

(5) White Flag: Extreme value play for the week

 

(6) Checkered Flag: Pick to win the race.

 

 

Green Flag

 

Sam Hornish, Jr. ($7,800) – Hornish comes into Sunday’s race looking for a turnaround after a 39th place finish last weekend at Pocono. I love for him to do it here at Watkins Glen. His most recent start here in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series (NSCS) was in 2012 where he finished 5th. Hornish also finished 2nd (2013) and 3rd (2012) while running in the XFINITY Series. He’s been extremely fast in both practices finishing 4th, and then 8th in final practice. He’ll start 27th on Sunday and I absolutely love his potential for a great place differential. He should be a lock in your lineup at this price.

 

AJ ALLMENDINGER ($10,200) – AJ had gotten incredibly fast over the past few years at the Glen and it looks like he doesn’t plan on slowing down anytime soon. He won the pole for the race on Sunday and was very fast in practice all weekend. He has the highest average finish of all drivers here in the last 5 races at a 5.8. He has not finished outside the top 10 in the last 4 races and has tallied 3 top 5’s in that time. I do not expect him to fall off one bit this weekend, a top 5 is almost a guarantee with AJ here so fit him into your line ups wherever you can.

 

Yellow Flag

 

Boris Said ($6,400) – Mr. Said is a driver we like to call a “road-course ringer” — or a driver who specializes in road courses. He’s made 14 NSCS career starts at Watkins Glen but has finished inside the top 20 just 4 of those races — with his last coming back in 2007. He has been very slow in practice posting times good enough for just 36th and 40th. I really do not know what to expect of his ownership because of the mixture we have in DFS of NASCAR fans, and those who know very little about NASCAR and simply rely on the data. I have him as a yellow flag simply due to his experience. This truly is his specialty. In his last 3 races here in the #32 Ford, he’s averaged a 24th place finish. I think he can definitely achieve that once again which would result in a solid positive place differential. However, I caution you to temper your expectations. Perhaps a FADE of Mr. Said is what makes your team stand out and take down a large GPP on Sunday.

 

TONY STEWART ($8,800) – Playing Tony this weekend is a huge risk/reward situation. We have all seen the struggles he has had this year,  he has found some speed recently but can’t seem to translate that into a solid finish. This weekend may be the place for him to turn it around, he was very fast in practice and rolls off 3rd on Sunday. Tony used to absolutely dominate at the Glen and has seen that fall off in recent years, in the last 3 races he has ran here Tony only has 1 top 10. We all know with the unfortunate events that occurred last year Tony did not participate in the race. Another factor that plays into the riskiness is his mentality coming into this weekend, it’s the first time Tony has been back at a track to race in New York since last year; undoubtedly the events that occurred still weigh on his mind and may only be amplified by the lawsuit that was filed against him just yesterday. Tony could either make or break your line up this weekend, this is why he is only a GPP play.

                                                                                                                                                                    

Red Flag

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($8,200) – Dale will start 7th on Sunday and will look to continue his strong season which finds him in 3rd place in the NSCS standings. Unfortunately, I do not see that happening — or, better put — I do not see him as a play in any format today. He has not finished better than 7th since 2004, which screams negative place differential. He was 29th quick in final practice, a big drop off from the 11th quickest time he ran in practice #1. His upside is severely limited this week and I see no point in inserting Dale into any of your lineups Sunday.

 

Denny Hamlin ($7,600) – Hamlin’s price is very tempting this week but the recent data is hard to overlook. In his last 5 races  at The Glen, he has just 1 top 20. He’ll start 13th on Sunday and averaged a 17th best time in the two practices. There’s not a whole lot of upside here and I think you’re better off looking elsewhere despite the nice price.

 

Black Flag

 

CASEY MEARS ($6,700)- Casey is quietly very consistent at Watkins Glen, in his last 4 races here he has never finished outside the Top 20 recording 3 Top 10’s and 1 Top 5 in that span. He also averages the 3rd highest place differential out of drivers who have ran more than 2 races here at 11.2 He was 5th quick in 1st practice and a little slower at 21st in the 2nd practice. Mears qualified 29th for Sunday’s race after a bad qualifying run, but that leaves him a ton of room for positive place differential.

 

White Flag

 

Cole Whitt ($5,600) – I’m going to overlook the 43rd place finish last season (as he crashed on lap 9) and focus on his two starts at The Glen in the XFINITY Series where he’s averaged a 16th place finish. He finished 8th in 2013, and has done nothing but continue to post positive place differentials as of late. At minimum price, there’s very little risk, which is Whitt is a great play that’ll allow you to fit some of the top options.

 

CHRIS BUESCHER ($5,600)- Buescher is another min-priced driver with very little risk. He’s had success at road courses in the past, winning last year’s race @ Mid-Ohio in the XFINITY Series. In two career XFINITY starts at The Glen, Buescher has averaged a 16th place finish, including finishing 3rd in yesterday’s race. With very little risk and an added driver slot, Buescher is definitely a guy to take a look at.

 

Checkered Flag

 

AJ ALLMENDINGER ($10,200)- As highlighted above AJ is incredibly fast and very consistent at Watkins Glen. Starting on the pole this weekend means that he will have to contend with very little traffic, if any at all and will be able to run his own race. I look for him to make it back to back victories and park it again at Watkins Glen this weekend.

 

^ TB: I second TS’s pick here and believe AJ will earn his way into the Chase for the Sprint Cup with a win on Sunday. Look for him to lead the majority of the laps.

 

DraftKings is offering the $110K Slingshot ($3 entry) and $100K Victory Lane Special with $10K to first place ($20 entry) this weekend. As of Sunday morning at 10 AM EST

 

Thank you for reading and good luck this weekend!!!

 

-Tyler & Tyler

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