We have a 12 game slate on tap for tonights MLB DFS action. It was a fun night in the industry last night as a few more guys booked their tickets to some live finals and lots more cash was won at both FanDuel and DraftKings. We will take a quick look at the game lines then get into my favorite pitchers and stacks to target for tonights slate.
Game Lines
Cubs @ Pirates(-130) 7.5
Diamondbacks @ Nationals(-131) 7.5
Dodgers(-178) @ Phillies 8
Giants(-190) @ Braves 7
Cardinals(-159) @ Reds 8
Mets(-155) @ Marlins 7
Padres @ Brewers(-126) 7.5
Royals(-170) @ Tigers 8
Twins @ Blue Jays(-190) 8.5
Red Sox @ Yankees(-200) 9
Astros(-163) @ Rangers 9.5
Mariners(-115) @ Rockies 11
Pitcher
Studs
Matt Harvey, New York Mets (FD $10,900, DK $11,000) – Everything about this match-up screams Harvey fires a perfect game while striking out 15, which scares me because pitchers generally forget to show up in match-ups like this and they leave us wondering what could have been. With that said, the Mets clubhouse is full of energy right now and Harvey is somebody that fees off of that and may just come out and dominate tonight. Harvey has 18 strikeouts in 14 innings against the Marlins this season, but somehow they have managed to put up 8 runs against him.
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants (FD $11,400, DK $10,600) – Bumgarner will probably be the top play of the night as he gets to face the Braves and their weak lineup against left handed pitching. Bumgarner and the Giants are a -190 road favorite in this game, which bodes well for an excellent start. He is coming off one of the worst starts of his career against the Rangers and I expect that to motivate him tonight. The two Braves bats that scare me the most are Chris Johnson and Jonny Gomes as they have combined to go 15 for 31 with 5 extra base hits against Bumgarner in their careers.
Scott Kazmir, Houston Astros (FD $9500, DK $9300) – Kazmir has dominated the Texas Rangers in 2015 as he has thrown 21 innings against them and allowed just 3 runs while striking out 22 batters. In those 21 innings, he has allowed just 8 hits and walked 5. This game has a pretty high over/under of 9.5 which tells me they expect it to be hot and probably to include a jet stream out to right-center. With that said, I love Kazmir tonight and think I might look his way over the two guys listed above. The salary savings are huge and will be needed because of the prices for some of the top bats tonight.
Values
Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals (FD $9500, DK $7800) – I know that I generally am all over the D’Backs when they face a lefty, however they have been scuffling a little bit and I think Gio’s DK price is just way too cheap as he and the Nationals are a -131 favorite in a game with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Gio’s pitch counts are what scares me the most as he throws a lot of pitches and last time out he could only manage 4.2 innings as he neared 110 pitches in the outing. The D’Backs got to him for 5 runs in 5 innings in his only start against them this season.
Luis Severino, New York Yankees (FD $6700, DK $4600) – Severino is a big time prospect who gets to make his MLB debut in Yankee stadium, against the woeful Boston Red Sox. Severino is so cheap on DK that he will probably be extremely highly owned as people will easily pair him with Kazmir, Harvey and Bumgarner. We don’t have much for numbers on Severino, however he had an ERA under 2.00 at Triple A in 11 starts before getting the call up. Severino and the Yankees are a -200 favorite in this game and I think Severino dazzles in his debut.
GPP Plays
Johnny Cueto, Kansas City Royals (FD $10,300, DK $10,100) – Generally Cueto finds himself in the stud category as he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. I am just not sold on the move to the AL for Cueto as he is not a guy that just blows people away and he relies more on the deception of his delivery, etc. With that said, he is a huge road favorite taking on the Tigers tonight. The Tigers offense has been pretty solid since dealing Price and Cespedes, which is what makes him a GPP play as I do not think he throws a gem tonight but should be in line for the W as the Royals should smack around Boyd and the Tigers staff.
Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays (FD $8400, DK $5400) – Hutchison finds himself in the GPP section as he struggled the last time out against the Twins, but has been absolutely dominant when pitching at home so far in 2015. His home ERA is sitting at 2.47, while his batting avg against is .230 and he has averaged about 8 K’s per 9 innings when pitching at the Rogers Centre. Hutchison and the Jays are a -190 favorite in this game as they face a struggling Twins offense. Hutchison is capable of blowing up at any point which is why I just can not trust him for anything outside of GPP’s tonight.
Stacks
Stud Stacks
Toronto Blue Jays: Troy Tulowitzki (FD $4500, DK $4400), Josh Donaldson (FD $5200, DK $5300), Jose Bautista (FD $4700, DK $4900), Edwin Encarnacion (FD $4500, DK $4500) – By now you have to realize that the Blue Jays are in play every single night as the top of this lineup is extremely potent, but do not sleep on the 5-8 spots on any given night as there are guys that get plugged in and are very under the radar plays such as Martin, Navarro, Colabello, Smoak, Pillar, and Revere. Tonight they face a Twins pitcher making his major league debut.
New York Yankees: Jacoby Ellsbury (FD $3600, DK $4600), Brett Gardner (FD $3700, DK $4900), Alex Rodriguez (FD $4300, DK $5100), Mark Teixeira (FD $4300, DK $5500) – The Yankees will most likely be the highest owned stack tonight as they have been extremely potent and are putting up double digit runs what seems like every night. You can certainly add McCann, Beltran, Gregorius, Headley and even Drew tonight against the knuckle baller in Steven Wright.
Other Stacks
Los Angeles Dodgers: Howie Kendrick (FD $3100, DK $4100), Adrian Gonzalez (FD $3300, DK $3900), Andre Ethier (FD $2700, DK $3000), Yasiel Puig (FD $2800, DK $3400) – The Dodgers burned everybody last night as they allowed Jerome Williams to look like Zack Greinke as they managed to plate just 1 run against him. I want to go back to the well tonight as they get to face Aaron Harang. The Dodgers roster has a career .333 batting average against him to go with 5 long balls. Grandal, Rollins and Callaspo make solid inclusions into a stack as I would expect to see Callaspo in the lineup tonight after Guerrero went 0-3 with 3 K’s.
Houston Astros: Carlos Gomez (FD $3600, DK $4500), Carlos Correa (FD $4500, DK $5600), Preston Tucker (FD $3300, DK $3700) – I feel like a small Astros stack could pay off huge tonight as they get to face Nick Martinez. I think Altuve is an option to include as well as guys like Gattis and Rasmus. Altuve just upset me by striking out with guys on 2nd and 3rd to end the game last night as I had a lot of Carlos Gomez and Carlos Correa (the next two hitters) around the industry. Make sure to check the lineup as Tucker left last night’s game with an arm contusion and said he had trouble bending it after the game.
Other Thoughts
After having a number of sweats last night, its tough to jump right back at it today with any kind of motivation. I think there are some great MLB games going tonight and there is a TON of money to be won all over the DFS industry tonight, which makes it a bit easier to let go of last night’s heart breaks. I haven’t mentioned pitchers such as Carlos Martinez, Taylor Jungmann, Dan Haren and Brett Anderson. These guys make interesting options to pair with one of the studs tonight and bats from the Phillies (I can’t believe I am saying the Philadelphia Phillies), Cardinals, Giants and Royals are all in play as they have positive match-ups when it comes to splits, etc. Hit me up on Twitter with any questions and I will certainly get back to you this afternoon as I have found myself a comfy spot on my not so comfy any longer couch!
