DFS Nascar
DFS Nascar

Welcome back for another week of DFS NASCAR!  This article will once again focus on the rules of fantasy NASCAR on DraftKings and breakdown what’s important to pay attention to. Following that, we will dive into strategy for this week. Our goal is to pick the drivers who we anticipate will perform strong, regardless of where they finish. I am proud to announce that I’ve teamed up with Tyler Salisbury, our newest NASCAR writer. We will be co-writing this piece from here on out. Please welcome him to the PlayPicks team!

 

ATTENTION: There has been TWO rule changes, effective IMMEDIATELY: “Pass Differential” will no longer be scored and has been removed from the system. Also, the number of drivers you are required to roster has gone from 5 to 6.

 

Official Rules can be found here:

 

What’s important to know:  You will select 6 drivers, staying within a $50,000 salary cap.

 

Final Position: This is the easy one. The higher your driver finishes, the more points you receive. A 1st  place finish receives 46 PTS, while 43rd will receive 1 PT.

 

Fastest Laps: Each time your driver runs the fastest lap, you will receive +0.5 PTS. Your driver, while unlikely, will have the potential to earn a maximum of (0.5) X (# of laps in the race) PTS.

 

Laps Led: For each lap your driver leads, you will receive +0.25 PTS. It’s as simple as that.

 

Place Differential: Place differential will be determined by the difference from where your driver starts, to where he/she finishes.  So, if your select driver starts 1st, he/she cannot have a positive place differential. (Example: if your driver qualifies 20th and finishes 10th, he/she will have receive +10 PTS for a positive 10 in the place differential category). Note: If your selected driver has to go to the back at the start of the race for any reason (backup car, engine change) he/she will still maintain the position he/she qualified, for fantasy purposes.

 

Odds for the the Windows 10 400 @ Pocono Raceway

 

KEVIN HARVICK 4/1

KYLE BUSCH 6/1

MARTIN TRUEX JR 7/1

JIMMIE JOHNSON 7/1

KURT BUSCH 8/1

BRAD KESELOWSKI 12/1

JOEY LOGANO 12/1

JEFF GORDON 12/1

DALE EARNHARDT JR 12/1

DENNY HAMLIN 12/1

MATT KENSETH 15/1

KASEY KAHNE 18/1

CARL EDWARDS 20/1

KYLE LARSON 25/1

JAMIE McMURRAY 40/1

TONY STEWART 50/1

RYAN NEWMAN 100/1

CLINT BOWYER 100/1

PAUL MENARD 100/1

AUSTIN DILLON 100/1

DAVID RAGAN 200/1

GREG BIFFLE 200/1

AJ ALLMENDINGER 500/1

ARIC ALMIROLA 500/1

RICKY STENHOUSE JR 500/1

DANICA PATRICK 500/1

CASEY MEARS 500/1

TREVOR BAYNE 500/1

SAM HORNISH JR 500/1

FIELD 500/1

 

Line Up

 

(via Crash.net)

1. Kyle Busch  — $10,800
2. Kevin Harvick  — $11,700
3. Joey Logano — $9,400
4. Austin Dillon  — $7,500
5. Tony Stewart  — $7,900
6. Kurt Busch  — $10,100
7. Matt Kenseth  — $9,000
8. Carl Edwards  — $8,500
9. Brad Keselowski — $9,400
10. Jeff Gordon — $9,300
11. Denny Hamlin — $9,300
12. Jimmie Johnson — $10,400

13. Martin Truex Jr.  — $10,300

14. Ryan Newman — $7,600
15. Dale Earnhardt Jr.  — $9,200
16. Kasey Kahne  — $8,700
17. Jamie McMurray — $8,100
18. Paul Menard — $7,400
19. Clint Bowyer — $7,700
20. Danica Patrick  — $6,500
21. Aric Almirola  — $6,300
22. AJ Allmendinger — $6,300
23. Trevor Bayne — $6,600
24. David Ragan –$7,000

25. Greg Biffle — $7,100
26. Casey Mears — $6,500
27. Kyle Larson — $8,300
28. Alex Bowman — $5,900
29. Landon Cassill  — $6,100
30. Sam Hornish Jr.  — $6,400
31. Justin Allgaier — $6,200
32. Brett Moffitt  — $5,800
33. Cole Whitt — $5,800
34. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.  — $6,400
35. JJ Yeley  — $5,800
36. Matt DiBenedetto — $6,000
37. David Gilliland  — $6,000
38. Jeb Burton  — $5,800
39. Michael Annett  — $5,900
40. Travis Kvapil  — $5.600
41. Reed Sorenson  — $5,700
42. Alex Kennedy  — $5,700
43. Timmy Hill  — $5,600

 

 

TOP 5’S LAST 5 RACES

 

  • DALE EARNHARDT JR- 4
  • KURT BUSCH- 3
  • GREG BIFFLE- 2
  • JIMMIE JOHNSON- 2
  • JOEY LOGANO- 2
  • KEVIN HARVICK- 2
  • RYAN NEWMAN- 2
  • BRAD KESELOWSKI- 1
  • CLINT BOWYER- 1
  • DENNY HAMLIN- 1

 

TOP 10’S LAST 5 RACES

 

  • DALE EARNHARDT JR- 4
  • KURT BUSCH- 4
  • JOEY LOGANO- 4
  • RYAN NEWMAN- 4
  • DENNY HAMLIN- 4
  • GREG BIFFLE- 3
  • JIMMIE JOHNSON- 3
  • KEVIN HARVICK- 3
  • JEFF GORDON- 3
  • JAMIE MCMURRAY- 3

 

AVERAGE FINISH OVER LAST 5 RACES

 

  • DALE EARNHARDT JR- 4.2
  • KURT BUSCH- 6.2
  • KYLE LARSON- 8
  • JEFF GORDON- 8.4
  • KEVIN HARVICK- 8.8
  • GREG BIFFLE- 9
  • JAMIE MCMURRAY- 10.6
  • JIMMIE JOHNSON- 12.4
  • RYAN NEWMAN- 12.6
  • JOEY LOGANO- 12.8

 

AVERAGE PLACE DIFFERENTIAL OVER LAST 5 RACES (DRIVERS WHO HAVE COMPETED IN 2 OR MORE RACES)

 

  • DALE EARNHARDT JR- 9.4
  • GREG BIFFLE- 8
  • MICHAEL ANNETT- 7.7
  • TRAVIS KVAPIL- 7.2
  • DAVID GILLILAND- 6.6
  • TIMMY HILL- 6.6
  • DAVID RAGAN- 6.4
  • ALEX KENNEDY- 5.7
  • ALEX BOWMAN- 5.4
  • CASEY MEARS- 5.2

 

 

 

From here, we will dive into the analysis for this week

 

(1) Green Flag: must play in all formats

 

(2) Yellow Flag: GPP plays, come with some risk

 

(3) Red Flag: avoid these drivers

 

(4) Black Flag: Dark horse pick– not a stud, and not a value pick. Someone who may give you the edge to win.

 

(5) White Flag: Extreme value play for the week

 

(6) Checkered Flag: Pick to win the race.

 

NOTE: Pricing for each driver has decreased from each week. This is due to the addition of another driver slot. 

 

 

Green Flag

 

Kyle Larson ($8,300): The #42 team has had quite an up & down season, and will look to continue last week’s success here at Pocono. At intermediate tracks such as Pocono (2.5 miles), Larson has finished no worse than 11th. In 3 career NSCS starts at Pocono, Larson has finished 5th, 11th, and 8th, dating back to last season. He’ll start 27th on Sunday leaving him plenty of room for improvement. He was 16th and 13th quick in the first two practices and will be looking to go all out with only a handful of races left before the Chase for the Sprint Cup. At 16.6% of the salary cap and as the 14th most expensive driver, he’s definitely affordable and should be a staple in most of your lineups.

 

Casey Mears ($6,500): I’m staying away from the obvious picks this week and going with another value play at just 13% of your overall salary cap. Mears. In his last 5 starts with Germain Racing at Pocono, Mears has finished 24th or better. Don’t expect a whole lot here, as a top 10 would be an excellent finish for the 37 year-old out of Bakersfield, California. Mears has finished 23rd or better his last 4 races and is one of the top value options on the board, with a top 15-20 very likely–which would give him a nice positive place differential.

 

Green Flag Stack

 

Penske Motorsports: Both Penske drivers have been very strong all year long, posting solid finish after solid finish. Keselowski and Logano both start towards the front which may be a little risky for place differential, but I fully expect both of them to stay towards the front. As a team the Penske Drivers average a finish of 12.8 here over the last 5 races, but I would not be surprised to see top 10’s out of each of them on Sunday.

 

Joe Gibbs Racing: For the second week in a row JGR appears in the green flag stacks, all the JGR cars have been fast all year; and the return of Kyle Busch has been dominant. Over the last 6 races the JGR cars have had an average finish of 12.5. In the last 5 races at Pocono, JGR has had an average finish of only 19. While that number may seem low, based on the season the JGR drivers are having I fully expect them to be near the front all day long and potentially dominate the race.

 

 

Yellow Flag

 

Kevin Harvick ($11,200): I LOVE Harvick as a GPP play today for three reasons: 1) his price (most expensive driver on the board at 22.4% of the salary cap, 2) he’s never won at Pocono, and 3) he’ll start 2nd, which is a big risk when considering place differential. Here’s the good news: He’s the favorite in Vegas at 4/1 and is in a higher starting position than ever before. In his 3 starts in the #4 at Pocono, Harvick has finished 14th, and then 2nd–his two most recent finishes here. If he can overtake Kyle Busch early he could lead a LOT of laps. That could be a tough task–but everything together makes him the ideal GPP play on Sunday.      

 

Kyle Busch ($10,800): To be honest? One of these two drivers is going to be on the winning GPP team this weekend. Busch has been the hottest driver on the circuit as of late winning three in a row, and he doesn’t seem to be slowing down. He’ll start on the pole, which sets up perfectly for another win…and…a negative place differential. If the Harvick scenario plays out and Busch loses the lead early, he could immediately become a bad play. The only way you’re playing Busch is if you believe he’ll stay out front for the majority of the race. The way he’s been racing, he could very well lead a majority of the laps. However, with the large risk for of a negative place differential, you have to approach with caution.

 

                                                                                                                                                                          

Red Flag

 

Tony Stewart ($7,900): Tony has struggled all season long and he just can’t seem to get over this slump. He has not been able to find speed and turn it into a solid finish at any track this year. While he was fast at Indianapolis, and posted a decent qualifying effort; his finish in the race on Sunday resulted in a very large negative pass differential. His average finish over the last 5 races at Pocono is 16.6 and he is only managing a place differential of 2.4 over those 5. In addition, he has only been able to manage an average finish of 22.5 over the last 6 races. He posted another top 5 qualifying run as he will roll off 5th on Sunday, but do not put all your faith in qualifying as he 22nd, 24th, and 18th in the 3 practices respectively. I almost placed Tony in my Red Flag section this week, you could say he is an EXTREME Yellow Flag; but Tony being Tony, he has the ability to put together a great finish this weekend.

 

Austin Dillon ($7,500): This seems like a repeat of the last race at Pocono, Dillon had speed early on in the weekend and looked promising for his price; but I don’t see him providing any value this weekend again. Dillon started 6th in the last race here and burned a lot of people by finishing 19th, and I think the story will be the same this weekend. There is too many stronger cars starting behind him that have had great success here. At the end of the day I would avoid him altogether, you can find much stronger options somewhere else.

 

 

Black Flag

 

Kurt Busch ($10,100): Busch will take the green flag on the outside of row 3 and has had much success at Pocono since the fall of 2009. His last 11 starts at Pocono have been fruitful, with 5 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. His last five finishes here average out to 6.2. The only downside to Kurt Busch this week is his price combined with his limited upside. If I’m entering only one team, I’ll probably avoid him. However, for multiple GPP’s Busch is a great pick that could give you that slight edge of taking down first place.

 

Ryan Newman ($7,600): I absolutely LOVE Newman this weekend, he rolls off 14th and has a solid chance at picking up a nice place differential. Over the last 5 races at Pocono he has averaged a finish of 12.6 with 2 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in that stretch. He is hands down one of the most consistent drivers at Pocono and is always a threat to sneak in there for the win. Newman was 7th, 6th, and 13th in the 3 practices this weekend. Newman has an average finish of 12.6 over the last 6 races this year, with 2 top 10’s and he has not finished outside of the top 20.

 

 

White Flag

 

TB: I don’t see any extreme value plays that are worth reaching on this week.

TS: Anytime I select a far-fetched value option, I never seem to cash. That said, I agree with TB here.

 

 

Checkered Flag

 

Denny Hamlin ($9,300): Denny Hamlin used to absolutely dominate Pocono, but the dominance has started to fade over the last few years. While he only has 1 top 5 in the last 5 races here, he has finished inside the top 10 4 of the last 5. Denny was 3rd, 4th, and 7th in the 3 practice session respectively. He rolls off 11th on Sunday which gives him a decent chance of picking up some solid place differential points. Denny will pick up the win on Sunday which will be needed to be successful in any contest. At his price he is very affordable and should be in most line ups!

 

DraftKings is offering an Exclusive $25K Freeroll this weekend that everyone should take advantage of. They are also offering the $100K Slingshot ($3 entry) and $100K Victory Lane Special with $20K to first place ($20 entry)!

 

Thank you for reading and good luck this weekend!!!

 

-Tyler & Tyler