Padres Vs Pirates: MLB Betting Lines, Stats And Predictions – May 4, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on May 4, 2021

The Pittsburgh Pirates (12-16) stumble into Tuesday’s matchup with the San Diego Padres (17-13) looking to break a five-game losing streak. The contest starts at 10:10 PM ET on BSSD with the Padres listed as -225 favorites, while the are +188 underdogs who may be heading for a sixth straight defeat. San Diego’s Ryan Weathers and Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller have been named the starters for this contest.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of May 4, 2021, 2:00 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Padres vs Pirates Betting Lines

Padres Betting Insights

  • The Padres have won 13, or 59.1%, of the 22 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • San Diego has a record of 2-1 in games where oddsmakers favor them by at least -225 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Padres, based on the moneyline, is 66.6%.
  • In their last 10 games with a total, the Padres and their opponents are 5-4-1 when it comes to hitting the over.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 4.6
HR 12
ERA 2.90
K/9 10.8

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Pirates Betting Insights

  • The Pirates have been victorous in 11, or 42.3%, of the 26 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • Pittsburgh has a win-loss record of 2-2 when favored by +188 or worse by bookmakers this year.
  • The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 33.4% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
  • When it comes to the total, the Pirates and their opponents are 4-6 in their last 10 games.

Pirates Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 3.2
HR 5
ERA 3.68
K/9 8.2

Pirates Probable Pitcher – Mitch Keller

  • Keller makes the start for the Pirates, his sixth of the season. He is 1-3 with an 8.20 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent outing on Wednesday against the Royals, the right-hander went 2 1/3 innings, allowing four earned runs while surrendering three hits.
  • In five games this season, the 25-year-old has amassed an ERA of 8.20, with 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .308 against him.
  • Keller has two starts this season where he pitched five or more innings.
  • The Pirates have a 2-3 record in Keller’s five starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of May 4, 2021 at 2:07 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Padres Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 17-13
Home 8-9
Road 9-4
vs LHP (Starters) 4-2
vs RHP (Starters) 13-11
Day Games 2-0
Night Games 15-13

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Padres Probable Pitcher – Ryan Weathers

  • The Padres’ Weathers (1-0) will make his fourth start of the season.
  • The left-hander did not allow a run or hit in one inning pitched on Thursday in his last outing, a matchup with the Diamondbacks.
  • The 21-year-old has pitched in six games this season with a .55 ERA, 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings and a batting average against of .080.
  • His team is 3-1 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of May 4, 2021 at 2:07 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Pirates Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 12-16
Home 5-7
Road 7-9
vs LHP (Starters) 1-4
vs RHP (Starters) 11-12
Day Games 4-4
Night Games 8-12

Padres Hitting Stats

  • The Padres rank 22nd-best in MLB play with 29 total home runs.
  • The Padres have hit 12 home runs at home this season (0.7 per game).
  • San Diego has hit 12 home runs over the last 10 games.
  • Eric Hosmer is batting .299 for San Diego with a team-high 17 RBI.
  • Trent Grisham leads San Diego in batting with a .309 average while slugging four homers and driving in seven runs.

Pirates Hitting Stats

  • The Pirates rank 29th in Major League Baseball with just 20 home runs as a team.
  • They’ve hit 15 homers, an average of 0.9 per game, in 16 road contests this season.
  • Over the last 10 games, Pittsburgh has hit five home runs.
  • The Pirates have lost five straight games and are batting .190 as a team with 14 runs scored over that span.
  • Bryan Reynolds is hitting .284 with nine doubles, two home runs and 14 walks.
  • Colin Moran has put his power on display as he paces his team with four home runs and 19 runs batted in.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Pirates (+188)

Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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