Marlins Vs Diamondbacks: MLB Betting Lines, Stats And Predictions – May 4, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on May 4, 2021

Coming off of a 0-3 series loss to the Nationals, the Miami Marlins (11-16) are -152 favorites to pick up the win in Game 1 of a three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks (15-13). The series begins at LoanDepot Park, starting on Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET on BSFL. Miami’s Sandy Alcantara and Arizona’s Riley Smith have been named the starters for this contest.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of May 4, 2021, 2:00 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Marlins vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines

Marlins Betting Insights

  • The Marlins have entered the game as favorites 10 times this season and won four of those games.
  • Miami has played as a favorite of -152 or more once this season and won that game.
  • The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 58.1% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
  • The Marlins and their opponents have combined to hit the over five times in their last 10 games with a total.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 3.3
HR 12
ERA 3.21
K/9 7.9

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Diamondbacks Betting Insights

  • The Diamondbacks have won in 12, or 52.2%, of the 23 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
  • This year, Arizona has won five of 11 games when listed as at least +130 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Diamondbacks have an implied victory probability of 41.9% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • When it comes to the over/under, the Diamondbacks and their foes are 6-4 in their last 10 contests.

Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 6.4
HR 15
ERA 5.23
K/9 9.2

Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Riley Smith

  • Smith (1-1) makes the start for the Diamondbacks, his third of the season.
  • In his most recent time out on Thursday, the right-hander threw four innings against the Padres, giving up three earned runs while surrendering six hits.
  • Smith will try to record his third matchup of five or more innings pitched this season. He’s averaging 3.0 innings per appearance.
  • The Diamondbacks have a 3-2 record in Smith’s five starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of May 4, 2021 at 2:14 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Marlins Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 11-16
Home 4-7
Road 7-9
vs LHP (Starters) 3-5
vs RHP (Starters) 8-11
Day Games 2-3
Night Games 9-13

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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Sandy Alcantara

  • The Marlins will send Alcantara (1-2) to the mound for his seventh start this season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Wednesday, when he gave up two earned runs and allowed five hits in seven innings against the Brewers.
  • Among qualified pitchers this season, the 25-year-old’s WHIP ranks 19th in WHIP.
  • In six starts this season, Alcantara has lasted five or more innings six times, with an average of 6.0 innings per appearance.
  • His team has won 66.7% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (2-1).
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of May 4, 2021 at 2:14 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Diamondbacks Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 15-13
Home 6-5
Road 9-8
vs LHP (Starters) 2-4
vs RHP (Starters) 13-9
Day Games 2-1
Night Games 13-12

Marlins Hitting Stats

  • The Marlins have hit 23 home runs this season, the fourth-lowest total in MLB play.
  • The Marlins have hit four homers at home this season (0.4 per game).
  • Miami has hit 12 home runs over the last 10 games.
  • Jesus Aguilar leads Miami in home runs with six and runs batted in with 23.
  • Corey Dickerson’s batting average of .316 leads all Miami hitters this season.

Diamondbacks Hitting Stats

  • The Diamondbacks rank third in Major League Baseball with 39 home runs.
  • They’ve hit 26 homers, an average of 1.5 per game, in 17 road contests this season.
  • Over the last 10 games, Arizona has hit 15 home runs.
  • David Peralta has accumulated a team-best 22 runs batted in.
  • Carson Kelly has two doubles, six home runs and 14 walks while hitting .339.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Diamondbacks (+130)

Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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