Heat Vs Spurs: NBA Betting Preview, Tips And Picks – April 28, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on April 28, 2021

The San Antonio Spurs (31-29) visit the Miami Heat (32-30) as 5-point underdogs after DeMar DeRozan went off for 37 points in the Spurs’ 146-143 victory over the Wizards. The game airs on BSSUN at 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, April 28, 2021. The matchup’s over/under is set at 209.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of April 28, 2021, 7:05 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Heat vs Spurs Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of April 28

Heat:
Victor Oladipo: Out (Knee),
Kendrick Nunn: Day To Day (Elbow),
Tyler Herro: Day To Day (Foot)

Spurs:
Derrick White: Day To Day (Ankle),
Trey Lyles: Day To Day (Ankle)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Spurs (+5)
Total Pick Over (209.5)
Prediction Heat 111, Spurs 107

The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (3.7 points) is a little bit less than the 5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Heat, though the data still has them as the favorite.

The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (8.2 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Heat Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Jimmy Butler 45 21.5 7.0 7.3 2.1 0.4 0.4
Victor Oladipo 33 19.8 4.8 4.6 1.4 0.4 2.4
Bam Adebayo 55 19.1 9.1 5.3 1.1 1.1 0.0
Tyler Herro 48 14.9 4.8 3.4 0.7 0.4 1.9
Kendrick Nunn 47 14.0 3.2 2.8 1.0 0.3 2.2

Heat Player Props

  • Jimmy Butler’s PRA prop total for the game is set at 35.5, 0.3 lower than his season average of 35.8.
  • Bam Adebayo’s PRA prop total for the contest is set at 36.5, 3.0 greater than his season average of 33.5.
  • Duncan Robinson’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 5.5, 2.0 shots higher than his season average of 3.5.
  • Butler’s steals prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, 0.6 steals lower than his season average of 2.1.

Spurs Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
DeMar DeRozan 51 21.5 4.4 7.2 0.9 0.3 0.4
Dejounte Murray 57 15.6 7.1 5.2 1.6 0.1 1.0
Derrick White 36 15.4 3.0 3.5 0.7 1.0 2.3
Keldon Johnson 57 12.9 6.4 1.8 0.6 0.4 0.9
Patty Mills 57 11.5 1.7 2.5 0.6 0.0 2.5

Spurs Player Props

  • DeRozan’s PRA prop total for the game is set at 34.5, 1.3 greater than his season average of 33.2.
  • Jakob Poeltl’s rebounding prop total for the contest is listed at 9.5 rebounds, 1.5 rebounds greater than his season average of 8.0.
  • Patty Mills’ three pointers made prop over/under for the contest is set at 1.5, 1.0 shot lower than his season average of 2.5.
  • Dejounte Murray’s steals prop total for the game is set at 1.5, 0.1 steals lower than his season average of 1.6.

Shooting Trends

  • The Heat are shooting 46.1% from the field this season, 0.6 percentage points lower than the 46.7% the Spurs allow to opponents.
  • Miami has a 16-15 record against the spread and a 19-12 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 46.7% from the field.
  • San Antonio’s record is 22-8 against the spread and 21-9 overall when its opponents make more than 46.1% of their shots from the field.
  • The Spurs are shooting 46.1% from the field, 0.8% higher than the 45.3% the Heat’s opponents have shot this season.
  • San Antonio has put together a 23-13 record against the spread and a 21-15 straight up record in games it shoots higher than 45.3% from the field.
  • When Miami’s opponents shoot over 46.1% from the field, it is 19-16 against the spread and 24-11 overall.
  • The Heat’s 34.8% three-point shooting percentage this season is 2.6 percentage points lower than opponents of the Spurs have shot from deep (37.4%).
  • Miami has assembled a 14-10 record against the spread and a 17-7 straight-up record in games this season when the team connects on more than 37.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • San Antonio is 20-4 against the spread and 19-5 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 34.8% from deep.
  • The Spurs are hitting 35.5% of their shots from beyond the arc, which is just 0.7 percentage points fewer than the 36.2% the Heat’s opponents are averaging on the season.
  • San Antonio is 20-7-1 ATS and 19-9 overall when the team makes more than 36.2% of its three-point attempts.
  • Miami has an 18-13 ATS record and a 20-11 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 35.5% from three-point distance.
  • The Heat’s 12.6 made three-pointers per game this season is 2.3 more made shots on average than the 10.3 per game the Spurs give up.
  • Miami has gone 11-5 against the spread and 14-2 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When San Antonio hits fewer threes than its opponents, it is 13-24-1 ATS and 12-26 straight up.
  • The Heat make the 15th-most three-pointers in the league, while the Spurs give up the 11th-fewest makes from beyond the arc.

Heat vs Spurs Stat Rankings

Heat Rank Heat AVG Spurs AVG Spurs Rank
27th 106.3 Points Scored 110.7 20th
3rd 107.1 Points Allowed 111.2 16th
29th 41.6 Rebounds 44.1 21st
30th 8 Off. Rebounds 9.4 21st
15th 12.6 3pt Made 10.3 29th
10th 26 Assists 24.6 15th
15th 13.5 Turnovers 11 2nd

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