Heat Vs Timberwolves: NBA Betting Preview, Tips And Picks – April 16, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on April 16, 2021

Southeast Division foes meet when the Miami Heat (28-27) visit the Minnesota Timberwolves (14-41) at Target Center, beginning at 8:00 PM ET on Friday, April 16, 2021. The Heat are 6.5-point favorites in the game, the first matchup between the squads this season. The matchup has a point total of 222.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of April 16, 2021, 7:05 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Heat vs Timberwolves Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of April 16

Heat:
Victor Oladipo: Out (Knee),
Andre Iguodala: Day To Day (Hip)

Timberwolves:
Jaylen Nowell: Day To Day (Leg),
Malik Beasley: Out (Hamstring)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Timberwolves (+6.5)
Total Pick Under (222.5)
Prediction Heat 113, Timberwolves 108

The model and DraftKings both have the Heat taking home the win, but the model has them winning by slightly less (4.4 points). Lean towards taking the Timberwolves.

In this matchup, the model projects a total (221.0 points) marginally lower than the DraftKings over/under (222.5 points).

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Heat Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Jimmy Butler 40 21.2 7.1 7.2 2.1 0.4 0.5
Victor Oladipo 33 19.8 4.8 4.6 1.4 0.4 2.4
Bam Adebayo 49 19.0 9.3 5.3 1.0 1.2 0.0
Tyler Herro 44 15.2 4.9 3.4 0.7 0.4 1.9
Kendrick Nunn 41 13.4 3.2 2.6 1.0 0.3 2.0

Heat Player Props

  • Jimmy Butler’s PRA prop total for the game is set at 33.5, 2.1 lower than his season average of 35.6.
  • Bam Adebayo’s rebounding prop over/under for the game is listed at 9.5 boards, 0.2 rebounds higher than his season average of 9.3.
  • Duncan Robinson’s three pointers made prop over/under for the contest is set at 4.5, 1.0 shot greater than his season average of 3.5.
  • Butler’s steals prop over/under for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.6 steals less than his season average of 2.1.

Timberwolves Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Karl-Anthony Towns 34 25.0 11.1 4.6 0.7 1.4 2.4
D’Angelo Russell 25 19.8 2.6 5.1 0.9 0.4 2.9
Malik Beasley 37 19.6 4.4 2.4 0.8 0.2 3.5
Anthony Edwards 55 18.0 4.3 2.6 1.1 0.4 2.2
Naz Reid 53 11.1 4.6 1.1 0.6 1.1 0.8

Timberwolves Player Props

  • Karl-Anthony Towns’ PRA prop total for the game is set at 45.5, 4.8 higher than his season average of 40.7.
  • Ricky Rubio’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 8.5, 9.9 lower than his season average of 18.4.
  • Malik Beasley’s three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 4.5, 1.0 shot greater than his season average of 3.5.
  • Towns’ blocks prop over/under for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.1 blocks higher than his season average of 1.4.

Shooting Trends

  • The Heat make 46% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.3 percentage points lower than the Timberwolves have allowed to their opponents (48.3%).
  • Miami is 11-8 against the spread and 13-6 overall when it shoots better than 48.3% from the field.
  • Minnesota has an 11-6-2 record against the spread and a 9-10 record overall when allowing its opponents to make more than 46% of their shots from the field.
  • The Timberwolves’ 44.2% shooting percentage from the field this season is 0.8 percentage points lower than the Heat have allowed to their opponents (45%).
  • Minnesota is 10-9-1 against the spread and 6-14 overall when it shoots higher than 45% from the field.
  • Miami is 15-10 against the spread and 18-7 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 44.2% from the field.
  • The Heat shoot 34.5% from beyond the arc, 4.7% lower than the 39.2% the Timberwolves allow to opponents.
  • Miami is 8-9 against the spread and 11-6 overall when it shoots better than 39.2% from distance.
  • Minnesota is 14-4 against the spread while putting up an 8-10 straight-up record when its opponents shoot above 34.5% from three-point range.
  • The Timberwolves are making 34.9% of their shots from three-point distance, which is 1.4 percentage points fewer than the 36.3% the Heat’s opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Minnesota is 11-9-2 ATS and 7-15 overall when the team hits more than 36.3% of its three-point attempts.
  • Miami has a 15-11 ATS record and a 15-11 straight-up record this season when it connects on more than 34.9% of its three-point attempts.
  • The Heat make 12.5 three-pointers per game this season, only 0.2 fewer made shots on average than the 12.7 per game the Timberwolves allow.
  • Minnesota has gone 17-9-2 against the spread and 11-17 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Miami makes fewer threes than its opponents, it is 11-25 ATS and 14-22 straight up.
  • The Timberwolves rank 14th in the NBA in made three-pointers, while the Heat allow the 27th-fewest made threes in the league.

Heat vs Timberwolves Stat Rankings

Heat Rank Heat AVG Timberwolves AVG Timberwolves Rank
26th 106.2 Points Scored 110.4 21st
3rd 107.5 Points Allowed 117.9 28th
29th 41.8 Rebounds 42.9 20th
30th 7.9 Off. Rebounds 10.3 13th
17th 12.5 3pt Made 12.7 14th
9th 26 Assists 25 13th
20th 13.7 Turnovers 13.6 18th

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