Braves vs Marlins: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Predictions – April 13, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on April 13, 2021

The Atlanta Braves will look to pick up their fifth win of the season when they take on the Miami Marlins (3-6) on Tuesday. The game begins at 7:20 PM ET, with the Braves listed as -200 favorites on the moneyline. Max Fried starts for Atlanta while Miami will counter with Pablo Lopez.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of April 13, 2021, 2:00 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Braves vs Marlins Betting Lines

Braves Betting Insights

  • The Braves won 29, or 67.4%, of the 43 games they played as favorites last season.
  • Atlanta was 2-2 last season when entering a game favored by -200 or more on the moneyline.
  • The Braves have a 63.9% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Atlanta’s games went over the total in 31 of their 59 chances last season.

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Marlins Betting Insights

  • The Marlins were underdogs in 43 games last season and came away with the win 19 times (44.2%) in those contests.
  • Last season, Miami was victorious eight times in 15 chances when named as an underdog of +165 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 36.1% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Miami’s games went over the total in 29 of its 54 opportunities.

Marlins Probable Pitcher – Pablo Lopez

  • The Marlins will send Lopez (0-1) to the mound for his third start of the season.
  • His most recent appearance was on Wednesday against the Cardinals, when the righty threw 6 2/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs while allowing three hits.
  • The 25-year-old ranks 19th in ERA (1.54), 13th in WHIP (.770), and 20th in BB/9 (3.10) among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season.
  • Lopez is looking to collect his third start of five or more innings this season in this matchup.
  • The Marlins were the underdog on the moneyline for one Lopez start this season — they lost.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of April 13, 2021 at 2:08 AM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Braves Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 4-6
Home 2-2
Road 2-4
vs LHP (Starters) 0-1
vs RHP (Starters) 4-5
Day Games 0-3
Night Games 4-3

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Braves Probable Pitcher – Max Fried

  • Fried will get the start for the Braves, his third of the season.
  • The left-hander last pitched on Wednesday against the Nationals, throwing two innings and giving up five earned runs.
  • His team won his only start as a favorite this season.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of April 13, 2021 at 2:08 AM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Marlins Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 3-6
Home 1-5
Road 2-1
vs LHP (Starters) 1-1
vs RHP (Starters) 2-5
Day Games 1-2
Night Games 2-4

Braves Hitting Stats

  • The Braves ranked second-best in MLB action last season with 103 total home runs.
  • The Braves hit 62 home runs at home last season (1.7 per game).
  • Marcell Ozuna slugged 18 home runs and collected 56 RBI last season while batting .333.
  • Freddie Freeman posted a .341 average with 13 homers and 53 RBI.

Marlins Hitting Stats

  • The Marlins’ 60 home runs ranked 25th in Major League Baseball.
  • They hit 40 homers, an average of 1.2 per game, in 34 road contests last season.
  • Starling Marte hit .281 last season with 14 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 11 walks.
  • Jesus Aguilar had 10 doubles, eight home runs and 23 walks while batting .277.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick:
Braves (-200)

Over/Under Pick: Over (8)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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