Red Sox vs Orioles: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Predictions – April 11, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on April 11, 2021

Led by Rafael Devers (on a two-game homer streak), the Boston Red Sox (5-3) are favorites to win against the Baltimore Orioles (4-4) on Sunday at 1:05 PM ET. Oddsmakers have named the Red Sox as -139 favorites for the game. Nick Pivetta starts for Boston while Baltimore will counter with Jorge Lopez.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of April 11, 2021, 2:00 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Red Sox vs Orioles Betting Lines

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • Last season, the Red Sox won eight out of the 13 games, or 61.5%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • Last season, Boston won four of its six games when favored by at least -139 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win by the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 56.1%.
  • Boston’s games went over the total in 30 of their 57 chances last season.

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Orioles Betting Insights

  • The Orioles won in 21, or 40.4%, of the 52 contests they were named as odds-on underdogs in last year.
  • Last season, Baltimore was victorious 18 times in 43 chances when named as an underdog of +120 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Orioles have a 43.9% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Baltimore and its opponents went over the total last season in 27 of their 55 opportunities.

Orioles Probable Pitcher – Jorge López

  • Lopez (0-1) gets the starting nod for the Orioles, his second of the season.
  • In his most recent time out on Monday, the righty threw 4 2/3 innings against the Yankees, allowing four earned runs while surrendering three hits.
  • The Orioles were named the moneyline underdog for one Lopez start this season — they lost.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of April 11, 2021 at 2:09 AM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Red Sox Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 5-3
Home 3-3
Road 2-0
vs LHP (Starters) 2-2
vs RHP (Starters) 3-1
Day Games 0-0
Night Games 5-3

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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Nick Pivetta

  • Pivetta heads to the mound for the Red Sox to make his second start of the season, seeking his second win.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance was on Monday, when he threw five scoreless innings while allowing two hits against the Rays.
  • This will be his first game as the moneyline favorite this season.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of April 11, 2021 at 2:09 AM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Orioles Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 4-4
Home 0-2
Road 4-2
vs LHP (Starters) 0-2
vs RHP (Starters) 4-2
Day Games 0-0
Night Games 4-4

Red Sox Hitting Stats

  • The Red Sox ranked 12th in MLB play with 81 home runs last season. They averaged 1.4 per game.
  • The Red Sox averaged 1.4 home runs per game when playing away from home last season (43 total in road contests).
  • Devers slugged 11 home runs and collected 43 RBI last season while batting .263.
  • Xander Bogaerts slugged 11 long balls while driving in 28 runs.

Orioles Hitting Stats

  • The Orioles’ 77 home runs ranked 15th in Major League Baseball.
  • They were 12-9 last season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Maikel Franco drove in 38 RBI last season while batting .278.
  • Ryan Mountcastle had five doubles, five home runs and 11 walks while batting .341.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick:
Red Sox (-139)

Over/Under Pick: Over (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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