Mavericks vs Rockets: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – April 7, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on April 7, 2021

Luka Doncic leads the Dallas Mavericks (28-21) against the Houston Rockets (13-37) after putting up 31 points in a 111-103 win over the Jazz. The Rockets are 11.5-point underdogs in the matchup on Wednesday, April 7, 2021, which starts at 8:00 PM ET on SportsNet SW. The matchup has a point total of 225.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of April 7, 2021, 7:05 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Mavericks vs Rockets Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of April 7

Kristaps Porzingis: Day To Day (Wrist),
Tyrell Terry: Day To Day (Personal),
Maxi Kleber: Day To Day (Leg),
Trey Burke: Day To Day (Calf),
JJ Redick: Out (Heel),
Willie Cauley-Stein: Day To Day (Health and Safety Protocols)

Armoni Brooks: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Avery Bradley: Day To Day (Knee),
David Nwaba: Out (Wrist),
Dante Exum: Out (Calf),
Eric Gordon: Out (Groin),
Danuel House Jr.: Out (Ankle),
John Wall: Day To Day (Knee)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Rockets (+11.5)
Total Pick Under (225)
Prediction Mavericks 115, Rockets 106

The spread for this game suggested by the model (8.8 points) is slightly less than the 11.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Mavericks, though the data still has them as the favorite.

In this game, the model projects a total (221.8 points) marginally lower than the DraftKings over/under (225 points).

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Mavericks Key Players

Luka Doncic 44 28.6 8.1 8.8 1.0 0.6 3.1
Kristaps Porzingis 31 20.2 8.9 1.6 0.5 1.6 2.3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 48 16.5 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 3.0
Jalen Brunson 45 13.0 3.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 1.2
Josh Richardson 39 12.7 3.6 2.8 0.9 0.4 1.6

Mavericks Player Props

  • Doncic’s points prop total for the game is set at 27.5, 1.1 points lower than his season average of 28.6.
  • Kristaps Porzingis’ PRA prop total for the game is set at 32.5, 1.9 higher than his season average of 30.6.
  • Doncic’s three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 4.5, 1.4 shots greater than his season average of 3.1.
  • Porzingis’ blocks prop total for the game is set at 1.5, 0.1 blocks lower than his season average of 1.6.

Rockets Key Players

Christian Wood 27 20.9 9.6 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.7
John Wall 32 20.2 3.4 6.8 1.0 0.8 1.9
Eric Gordon 27 17.8 2.1 2.6 0.5 0.5 2.6
Kevin Porter Jr. 13 15.6 3.6 6.1 0.9 0.5 1.3
Kelly Olynyk 49 11.1 5.9 2.2 1.0 0.6 1.9

Rockets Player Props

  • Christian Wood’s PRA prop total for the contest is set at 28.5, 3.4 less than his season average of 31.9.
  • John Wall’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 30.5, 0.2 greater than his season average of 30.3.
  • Eric Gordon’s three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 2.5, 0.1 shots lower than his season average of 2.6.
  • Jae’Sean Tate’s steals prop over/under for the game is set at 0.5, 0.6 steals less than his season average of 1.1.

Shooting Trends

  • This season, the Mavericks have a 47% shooting percentage from the field, which is the same percentage of shots the Rockets’ opponents have hit.
  • In games Dallas shoots higher than 47% from the field, it is 16-9 against the spread and 19-6 overall.
  • Houston is 12-13 against the spread and 13-12 overall when allowing opponents to shoot better than 47% from the field.
  • The Rockets are shooting 44% from the field, 1.5% lower than the 45.5% the Mavericks’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Houston is 12-7 against the spread and 9-10 overall when it shoots better than 45.5% from the field.
  • When Dallas’ opponents shoot above 44% from the field, it is 15-3 against the spread and 15-3 overall.
  • The Mavericks’ 36.4% three-point shooting percentage this season is only 1.1 percentage points lower than opponents of the Rockets have shot from beyond the arc (37.5%).
  • Dallas has put together an 11-8 record against the spread and a 13-6 straight-up record in games this season when the team hits more than 37.5% of its three-point shots.
  • Houston has put up a 10-13-1 against the spread while going 10-14 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 36.4% from deep.
  • The Rockets shoot 33.5% from three-point distance this season. That’s 2.6 percentage points lower than the Mavericks have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (36.1%).
  • Houston is 9-9 ATS and 9-9 overall when the team hits more than 36.1% of its three-point attempts.
  • Dallas has a 16-1 ATS record and a 16-1 straight-up record this season when it connects on more than 33.5% of its three-point attempts.
  • The Mavericks connect on 13.8 three-pointers per game this season, just 0.4 more made shots on average than the 13.4 per game the Rockets give up.
  • When Dallas makes more threes than its opponents, it is 19-5 against the spread and 20-4 overall. When Houston is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 4-17 ATS and 2-19 straight up.
  • The Rockets rank 10th in the NBA in made three-pointers, while the Mavericks allow the 24th-fewest made threes in the league.

Mavericks vs Rockets Stat Rankings

Mavericks Rank Mavericks AVG Rockets AVG Rockets Rank
19th 111.8 Points Scored 107.8 24th
8th 109.7 Points Allowed 114.2 24th
19th 43.5 Rebounds 42.1 24th
27th 8.5 Off. Rebounds 8.9 24th
8th 13.8 3pt Made 13.4 10th
27th 22.5 Assists 22.8 25th
3rd 11.4 Turnovers 13.9 22nd

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