Nuggets vs Spurs: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – April 7, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on April 7, 2021

The Denver Nuggets (32-18) host the San Antonio Spurs (24-24) after winning four straight home games. The Nuggets are favored by 6.5 points in the matchup, which begins at 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, April 7, 2021. The matchup’s point total is set at 223.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of April 7, 2021, 7:05 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Nuggets vs Spurs Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of April 7

Nuggets:
Jamal Murray: Out (Knee)

Spurs:
Dejounte Murray: Day To Day (Foot),
Trey Lyles: Out (Ankle),
Lonnie Walker IV: Out (Wrist),
Keita Bates-Diop: Day To Day (Hamstring)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Nuggets (-6.5)
Total Pick Over (223.5)
Prediction Nuggets 117, Spurs 107

The DraftKings line for this game has the Nuggets favored by 6.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by considerably more (10.2 points). Put your money on the Nuggets.

DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this game, within 0.4 points of each other.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Nuggets Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Nikola Jokic 50 26.4 10.9 8.6 1.5 0.7 1.5
Jamal Murray 47 21.3 4.0 4.8 1.3 0.3 2.7
Michael Porter Jr. 40 16.9 7.5 1.0 0.7 0.9 2.5
Aaron Gordon 30 14.3 6.3 3.9 0.7 0.8 1.5
Will Barton 47 12.7 4.3 3.2 0.9 0.5 1.7

Nuggets Player Props

  • Nikola Jokic’s PRA prop total for the contest is set at 42.5, 3.4 less than his season average of 45.9.
  • Jamal Murray’s three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 2.5, 0.2 shots lower than his season average of 2.7.
  • Jokic’s steals prop total for the game is set at 1.5, equal to his season average of 1.5.

Spurs Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
DeMar DeRozan 41 21.0 4.4 7.0 0.9 0.3 0.4
Dejounte Murray 46 15.7 7.0 5.2 1.5 0.1 0.9
Derrick White 24 14.2 2.7 3.4 0.7 1.0 2.2
Keldon Johnson 45 13.2 6.5 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.9
Patty Mills 47 12.4 1.7 2.6 0.6 0.0 2.7

Spurs Player Props

  • DeMar DeRozan’s points prop total for the contest is set at 21.5, 0.5 points higher than his season average of 21.0.
  • Jakob Poeltl’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 22.5, 4.6 higher than his season average of 17.9.
  • Patty Mills’ three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 2.5, 0.2 shots less than his season average of 2.7.
  • Poeltl’s blocks prop total for the contest is set at 2.5, 0.9 blocks higher than his season average of 1.6.

Shooting Trends

  • This season, the Nuggets have a 49% shooting percentage from the field, which is 2.1% higher than the 46.9% of shots the Spurs’ opponents have knocked down.
  • Denver is 19-11 against the spread and 23-7 overall when it shoots higher than 46.9% from the field.
  • San Antonio’s record is 21-10 against the spread and 19-12 overall when its opponents make more than 49% of their shots from the field.
  • The Spurs have shot at a 45.9% rate from the field this season, 1.1 percentage points below the 47% shooting opponents of the Nuggets have averaged.
  • San Antonio is 13-4 against the spread and 12-5 overall when it shoots higher than 47% from the field.
  • Denver is 16-3 against the spread and 18-1 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot over 45.9% from the field.
  • The Nuggets’ 38.9% three-point shooting percentage this season is only one percentage point higher than opponents of the Spurs have shot from deep (37.9%).
  • Denver has a 17-11 record against the spread and a 19-9 record overall when the team connects on more than 37.9% of its three-point shots.
  • San Antonio is 21-7 against the spread while putting up a 19-9 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 38.9% from three-point distance.
  • The Spurs shoot 35.7% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 0.7 percentage points lower than the Nuggets have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (36.4%).
  • San Antonio has a 16-6-1 ATS record and is 15-8 straight-up when the team hits more than 36.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • Denver is 16-10 ATS and 20-6 overall in games it shoots above 35.7% from deep.
  • The Nuggets knock down 13.3 three-pointers per game this season, 2.8 more makes per game than the Spurs allow (10.5).
  • Denver is 13-7 against the spread and 14-6 overall when it hit more threes than its opponents, while San Antonio is 11-21-1 ATS and 11-22 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.
  • The Nuggets are the 11th-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Spurs give up the 14th-fewest makes from deep.

Nuggets vs Spurs Stat Rankings

Nuggets Rank Nuggets AVG Spurs AVG Spurs Rank
4th 115.7 Points Scored 110.5 21st
9th 110.2 Points Allowed 112 16th
16th 44.2 Rebounds 44 21st
8th 10.6 Off. Rebounds 9.1 22nd
11th 13.3 3pt Made 10.5 29th
3rd 27.2 Assists 24.3 18th
7th 12.6 Turnovers 10.9 1st

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