Heat vs Grizzlies: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – April 6, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on April 6, 2021

The Miami Heat (26-24) will attempt to build on a four-game win streak when they host the Memphis Grizzlies (24-23) on Tuesday, April 6, 2021 at American Airlines Arena as 5.5-point favorites. The contest airs at 8:00 PM ET on BSSUN. The matchup has an over/under of 217.5 points.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of April 6, 2021, 1:05 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Heat vs Grizzlies Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of April 6

Heat:
KZ Okpala: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Gabe Vincent: Day To Day (Knee)

Grizzlies:
Justise Winslow: Out (Thigh),
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (Knee),
Brandon Clarke: Day To Day (Calf),
De’Anthony Melton: Out (Leg)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Grizzlies (+5.5)
Total Pick Over (217.5)
Prediction Heat 111, Grizzlies 108

The model and DraftKings both have the Heat taking home the win, but the model has them winning by slightly less (3.0 points). Lean towards taking the Grizzlies.

The model’s predicted total (218.2 points) and the DraftKings set total (217.5 points) are virtually the same for this contest.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Heat Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Jimmy Butler 35 21.2 7.5 7.3 2.0 0.4 0.4
Victor Oladipo 31 19.9 4.8 4.7 1.4 0.4 2.4
Bam Adebayo 44 19.3 9.6 5.3 0.9 1.2 0.0
Tyler Herro 39 15.5 5.1 3.4 0.7 0.4 1.8
Kendrick Nunn 38 13.5 3.1 2.6 1.1 0.2 2.0

Heat Player Props

  • Jimmy Butler’s assists prop total for the matchup is posted at 5.5 assists, 1.8 assists less than his season average of 7.3.
  • Bam Adebayo’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 33.5, 0.7 lower than his season average of 34.2.
  • Duncan Robinson’s three pointers made prop over/under for the contest is set at 3.5, equal to his season average of 3.5.
  • Adebayo’s blocks prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, 0.3 blocks higher than his season average of 1.2.

Grizzlies Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Ja Morant 39 19.0 3.4 7.5 0.9 0.2 0.9
Jonas Valanciunas 42 16.2 12.5 1.7 0.5 0.7 0.3
Dillon Brooks 44 16.1 2.9 2.4 1.3 0.4 1.8
Kyle Anderson 45 12.3 5.8 3.4 1.2 0.8 1.3
Brandon Clarke 41 11.7 5.5 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.5

Grizzlies Player Props

  • Ja Morant’s points prop over/under for the game is set at 20.5, 1.5 points greater than his season average of 19.0.
  • Jonas Valanciunas’ rebounding prop over/under for the contest is listed at 16.5 boards, 4.0 rebounds higher than his season average of 12.5.
  • Grayson Allen’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 2.5, 0.3 shots greater than his season average of 2.2.
  • Brandon Clarke’s blocks prop over/under for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.7 blocks higher than his season average of 0.8.

Shooting Trends

  • The Heat are shooting 45.9% from the field this season, 0.6 percentage points lower than the 46.5% the Grizzlies allow to opponents.
  • In games Miami shoots better than 46.5% from the field, it is 13-10 against the spread and 15-8 overall.
  • Memphis has a 22-3-1 record against the spread and an 18-8 record overall when allowing its opponents to hit more than 45.9% of their shots from the field.
  • The Grizzlies’ 46.3% shooting percentage from the field this season is 1.8 percentage points higher than the Heat have allowed to their opponents (44.5%).
  • Memphis has compiled a 22-6 record against the spread and a 19-9 straight up record in games it shoots higher than 44.5% from the field.
  • When Miami’s opponents shoot over 46.3% from the field, it is 18-16 against the spread and 23-11 overall.
  • The Heat are knocking down 34.5% of their three-point shots this season, two% lower than the 36.5% the Grizzlies allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Miami has an 11-7 record against the spread and a 14-4 record overall when the team hits more than 36.5% of its three-point attempts.
  • Memphis is 15-2-1 against the spread and 13-5 overall when its opponents shoot better than 34.5% from deep.
  • The Grizzlies’ three-point shooting percentage this season (35.3%) is just 0.9 percentage points lower than opponents of the Heat are averaging (36.2%).
  • Memphis is 15-3 against the spread and 12-6 overall when shooting above 36.2% as a team from three-point range.
  • Miami is 14-11 ATS and 15-10 overall in games it shoots above 35.3% from deep.
  • The Heat make 12.6 three-pointers per game this season, 1.9 more makes per game than the Grizzlies give up (10.7).
  • Miami is 7-5 against the spread and 10-2 overall when it hit more threes than its opponents, while Memphis is 13-15 ATS and 11-17 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.
  • The Heat make the 16th-most three-pointers in the league, while the Grizzlies give up the 22nd-fewest makes from beyond the arc.

Heat vs Grizzlies Stat Rankings

Heat Rank Heat AVG Grizzlies AVG Grizzlies Rank
26th 106.4 Points Scored 111.9 17th
3rd 107.1 Points Allowed 111 14th
25th 42.6 Rebounds 46.3 7th
29th 8 Off. Rebounds 11.2 2nd
16th 12.6 3pt Made 10.7 26th
10th 26 Assists 26.7 6th
21st 13.9 Turnovers 12.9 11th

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