Cubs vs Pirates: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Predictions – April 4, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on April 4, 2021

The Chicago Cubs (1-1) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (1-1) meet in the rubber match of a three-game series on Sunday at 2:20 PM ET. The Cubs are -175 favorites on the moneyline to win the series over the Pirates (+148). Zach Davies starts for Chicago while Mitch Keller is Pittsburgh’s starter for the contest.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of April 4, 2021, 3:00 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Cubs vs Pirates Betting Lines

Cubs Betting Insights

  • The Cubs entered a game as favorites 40 times last season and won 24, or 60%, of those games.
  • Last season, Chicago won 11 of its 17 games, or 64.7%, when favored by at least -175 on the moneyline.
  • The Cubs have a 61.2% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Chicago and its opponents hit the over in 28 of their 58 games with a total last season.

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Pirates Betting Insights

  • The Pirates were chosen as underdogs in 58 games last year and walked away with the win 19 times (32.8%) in those games.
  • Pittsburgh had a win-loss record of 8-23 when favored by +148 or worse by bookmakers last year.
  • The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 38.8% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
  • Pittsburgh’s games went over the total in 26 of its 59 opportunities.

Pirates Probable Pitcher – Mitch Keller

  • Keller takes the mound for his first start of the season for the Pirates.
  • The 24-year-old righty started and threw five innings when he last appeared on Friday, Sept. 25 against the Indians.
  • Keller and his team went 1-4 in games he pitched when they were the moneyline underdog a season ago.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of April 4, 2021 at 6:07 AM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Cubs Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 1-1
Home 1-1
Road 0-0
vs LHP (Starters) 1-0
vs RHP (Starters) 0-1
Day Games 0-0
Night Games 1-1

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Cubs Probable Pitcher – Zach Davies

  • Davies gets the nod for the Cubs and will make his first start of the season.
  • The last time the righty took the mound was on Thursday, Oct. 8 last season, when he pitched five innings in a matchup with the Dodgers.
  • The right-hander did not appear in a game when his team was the moneyline favorite last season.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of April 4, 2021 at 6:07 AM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Pirates Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 1-1
Home 0-0
Road 1-1
vs LHP (Starters) 0-0
vs RHP (Starters) 1-1
Day Games 0-0
Night Games 1-1

Cubs Hitting Stats

  • The Cubs averaged 1.2 home runs per game to rank 17th in MLB play with 74 total home runs last season.
  • The Cubs averaged 0.9 homers per home game last season (30 total at home).
  • Ian Happ slugged 12 home runs and collected 28 RBI last season while batting .258.
  • Willson Contreras hit .249 with an OBP of .357 and a slugging percentage of .413.

Pirates Hitting Stats

  • The Pirates hit just 59 homers last season, which ranked 27th in the league.
  • They were 7-8 last season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Colin Moran had 10 home runs and 23 runs batted in last season.
  • Adam Frazier collected 23 runs batted in with 48 hits.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Pirates (+148)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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