Gonzaga vs. Baylor Picks & Best Bets — NCAA Championship 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on April 4, 2021 - Last Updated on April 7, 2021

The NCAA Tournament comes down to a matchup between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the Baylor Bears on Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium, beginning at 9:00 PM ET, live on CBS. Bookmakers favor Gonzaga to take home the title, favoring them by in the contest.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of April 4, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-4.5)

The model line and the DraftKings line are within 0.5 points of each other.

Pick OU: Under (160)

The DraftKings point total for this game is just 5.5 points higher than the model projection.

Prediction: Gonzaga 80, Baylor 75

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Bulldogs’ average implied point total this season is 6.7 more points than their implied total in Monday’s game (88.7 implied points on average compared to 82 implied points in this game).
  • This season, Gonzaga has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (82) 28 times.
  • The Bears’ average implied point total on the season (79.2 points) is 1.2 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (78 points).
  • Baylor has scored more than 78 points 18 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Gonzaga and Baylor Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 4.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bulldogs 15-13-2 13-13-2 16-14
Bears 18-9-1 15-8-1 17-11

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Bulldogs are shooting 55% from the field this season, 11.9 percentage points higher than the 43.1% the Bears allow to opponents.
  • Gonzaga has a 31-0 straight-up record and a 15-13-2 record against the spread in games it shoots higher than 43.1% from the field.
  • Baylor is 27-2 overall and 18-9-1 against the spread when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 55% from the field.
  • The Bears have shot at a 48.8% rate from the field this season, 6.9 percentage points greater than the 41.9% shooting opponents of the Bulldogs have averaged.
  • Baylor is 25-0 overall and 17-6-1 against the spread when it makes more than 41.9% of its attempts from the field.
  • When opponents of Gonzaga shoot above 48.8% from the field, it is 13-12-2 against the spread and 28-0 overall.
  • The Bulldogs shoot 36.9% from deep, 4% higher than the 32.9% the Bears allow to opponents.
  • Gonzaga is 22-0 overall and 13-7-2 against the spread when it shoots better than 32.9% from distance.
  • Baylor has put up an 11-5 against the spread while going 16-1 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 36.9% from deep.
  • The Bears three-point shooting percentage this season (41.2%) is 8.9 percentage points higher than opponents of the Bulldogs are averaging (32.3%).
  • Baylor is 16-5-1 ATS and 23-0 overall when hitting more than 32.3% of its three-point attempts.
  • Gonzaga has a 14-9-2 ATS record and a 26-0 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 41.2% from three-point range.
  • The Bulldogs knock down 7.6 three-pointers per game this season, 2.4 fewer made shots on average than the 10 per game the Bears give up.
  • When Baylor makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 13-6 against the spread and 19-1 overall. When Gonzaga is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 2-5-1 ATS and 9-0 straight up.

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