Heat vs Warriors: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – April 1, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on April 1, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

A game after he went off for 32 points in a 116-102 win over the Bulls, Stephen Curry leads the Golden State Warriors (23-24) on the road against the Miami Heat (24-24) on Thursday, April 1, 2021. The Warriors are underdogs by 2 points in the matchup, which starts at 8:00 PM ET on NBCS-BA. The matchup has an over/under set at 219.5 points.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of April 1, 2021, 1:05 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Heat vs Warriors Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of April 1

Heat:
KZ Okpala: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Udonis Haslem: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Kendrick Nunn: Out (Ankle),
Victor Oladipo: Out (Illnes)

Warriors:
Klay Thompson: Out For Season (Right Achilles),
Eric Paschall: Day To Day (Wrist)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Heat (-2)
Total Pick Over (219.5)
Prediction Heat 112, Warriors 108

Both DraftKings and the model expect the Heat to walk away with the victory, but the model spread (4.1) is 2.1 points further in their direction.

DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this contest, within 0.6 points of each other.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Heat Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Jimmy Butler 33 21.4 7.6 7.2 1.9 0.4 0.4
Victor Oladipo 29 20.8 5.0 4.7 1.4 0.4 2.6
Bam Adebayo 42 19.3 9.6 5.3 0.9 1.2 0.0
Tyler Herro 37 15.5 5.2 3.5 0.6 0.4 1.9
Kendrick Nunn 38 13.5 3.1 2.6 1.1 0.2 2.0

Heat Player Props

  • Jimmy Butler’s points prop over/under for the game is set at 23.5, 2.1 points higher than his season average of 21.4.
  • Bam Adebayo’s PRA prop total for the game is set at 34.5, 0.3 greater than his season average of 34.2.
  • Duncan Robinson’s three pointers made prop over/under for the contest is set at 3.5, 0.1 shots greater than his season average of 3.4.
  • Butler’s steals prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, 0.4 steals less than his season average of 1.9.

Warriors Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Stephen Curry 40 29.1 5.3 6.2 1.4 0.1 4.7
Andrew Wiggins 47 18.2 4.8 2.2 0.9 0.9 2.0
Kelly Oubre Jr. 45 15.2 6.0 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.6
James Wiseman 33 11.8 5.9 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.3
Jordan Poole 26 11.0 1.6 1.7 0.3 0.1 1.7

Warriors Player Props

  • Draymond Green’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 23.5, 2.5 greater than his season average of 21.0.
  • Curry’s PRA prop total for the contest is set at 34.5, 6.1 lower than his season average of 40.6.
  • Curry’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 3.5, 1.2 shots less than his season average of 4.7.
  • James Wiseman’s blocks prop total for the contest is set at 0.5, 0.5 blocks lower than his season average of 1.0.

Shooting Trends

  • The Heat make 45.7% of their shots from the field this season, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the Warriors have allowed to their opponents (45.3%).
  • Miami is 15-12 against the spread and 16-11 overall when it shoots better than 45.3% from the field.
  • Golden State has a 16-10 record against the spread and a 17-9 record overall when allowing its opponents to knock down more than 45.7% of their shots from the field.
  • The Warriors have shot at a 46.3% clip from the field this season, 1.8 percentage points higher than the 44.5% shooting opponents of the Heat have averaged.
  • Golden State has compiled a 21-9 record against the spread and a 21-9 straight up record in games it shoots better than 44.5% from the field.
  • Miami is 17-16 against the spread and 22-11 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot over 46.3% from the field.
  • The Heat are knocking down 34.4% of their three-point shots this season, 2.5% lower than the 36.9% the Warriors allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Miami has assembled a 10-7 record against the spread and a 13-4 straight-up record in games this season when the team hits more than 36.9% of its three-point attempts.
  • Golden State is 14-7 against the spread and 14-7 overall when its opponents shoot better than 34.4% from deep.
  • The Warriors shoot 37% from beyond the arc this season. That’s just 0.8 percentage points higher than the Heat have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (36.2%).
  • Golden State has a 16-7 ATS record and is 17-6 straight-up when the team makes more than 36.2% of its three-point attempts.
  • Miami has a 15-14 ATS record and a 17-12 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 37% from three-point range.
  • The Heat knock down 12.5 three-pointers per game this season, 1.3 fewer made shots on average than the 13.8 per game the Warriors give up.
  • Golden State has gone 17-10 against the spread and 19-8 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Miami makes fewer threes than its opponents, it is 10-21 ATS and 12-19 straight up.
  • The Warriors rank eighth in the NBA in made three-pointers, while the Heat allow the 29th-fewest made threes in the league.

Heat vs Warriors Stat Rankings

Heat Rank Heat AVG Warriors AVG Warriors Rank
27th 106 Points Scored 112.7 14th
3rd 107.2 Points Allowed 113.6 22nd
26th 42.8 Rebounds 42.6 27th
29th 8.1 Off. Rebounds 7.8 30th
18th 12.5 3pt Made 13.8 8th
10th 25.7 Assists 27.6 1st
22nd 14 Turnovers 14.4 25th

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