Gonzaga vs. UCLA Picks & Best Bets — Final 4 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on April 2, 2021

A Final Four matchup in the NCAA Tournament will see the No. 1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-0) and the No. 11 seed UCLA Bruins (17-9) play on Saturday at 8:34 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium (airing on CBS) with a spot in the National Championship game to be won. Gonzaga is a favorite to survive and advance to the championship game.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of April 1, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: UCLA Bruins (+14)

The model and DraftKings both have the Bulldogs taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (13.3 points). Lean towards taking the Bruins.

Pick OU: Over (145.5)

In this game, the model projects a total (150.3 points) slightly higher than the DraftKings over/under (145.5 points).

Prediction: Gonzaga 82, UCLA 68

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Bulldogs’ average implied point total this season is nine more points than their implied total in Saturday’s game (89 implied points on average compared to 80 implied points in this game).
  • So far this season, Gonzaga has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (80) 27 times.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Bruins (71.7) is 5.7 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (66).
  • UCLA has totaled more than 66 points in 22 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Gonzaga and UCLA Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 14+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bulldogs 15-12-2 10-11-1 15-14
Bruins 16-14 1-1 17-13

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Bulldogs are shooting 54.9% from the field this season, 11.5 percentage points higher than the 43.4% the Bruins allow to opponents.
  • Gonzaga is 15-12-2 against the spread and 30-0 overall in games when it collectively shoots better than 43.4% from the field.
  • UCLA is 16-13 against the spread and 22-8 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 54.9% from the field.
  • The Bruins’ 45.7% shooting percentage from the field this season is 4.3 percentage points higher than the Bulldogs have given up to their opponents (41.4%).
  • This season, UCLA has a 13-10 record against the spread and an 18-6 record overall in games the team collectively shoots over 41.4% from the field.
  • When Gonzaga’s opponents hit better than 45.7% from the field, it is 11-9-1 against the spread and 22-0 overall.
  • The Bulldogs’ 37% three-point shooting percentage this season is 3.3 percentage points higher than opponents of the Bruins have shot from beyond the arc (33.7%).
  • Gonzaga is 9-6-1 against the spread and 16-0 overall when it shoots better than 33.7% from distance.
  • UCLA has a 14-5 record against the spread while going 15-5 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 37% from deep.
  • The Bruins three-point shooting percentage this season (37%) is 5.1 percentage points higher than opponents of the Bulldogs are averaging (31.9%).
  • UCLA is 11-9 against the spread and 16-5 overall when shooting above 31.9% as a team from three-point range.
  • Gonzaga is 13-7-1 ATS and 22-0 overall in games when shooting above 37% from deep.
  • The Bulldogs are 11-7-1 against the spread and 19-0 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Bruins are 5-10 ATS and 9-6 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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