Baylor vs. Houston Picks & Best Bets — Final 4 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on April 2, 2021

A Final Four battle features the No. 1 seed Baylor Bears (22-2) and the No. 2 seed Houston Cougars (24-3) meeting with a place in the National Championship Game up for grabs on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium. Baylor is a favorite in the NCAA Tournament contest, which begins at a time to be announced on CBS.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 30, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Houston Cougars (+4.5)

While DraftKings has the Bears winning by 4.5, the model has the Cougars taking home the victory, with a considerable margin between the two spreads (5.1 points).

Pick OU: Over (135.5)

The model projects a total 5.5 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game.

Prediction: Houston 71, Baylor 70

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Bears have an average implied point total of 79.6 this season, which is 9.6 points higher than their implied total in Saturday’s game (70).
  • Baylor is looking to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (70) for the 24th time this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Cougars (73.3) is 7.3 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (66).
  • Houston will try to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (66) for the 25th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Baylor and Houston Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 4.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bears 17-9-1 14-8-1 16-11
Cougars 20-9 18-9 14-15

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Bears make 48.7% of their shots from the field this season, which is 11.4 percentage points higher than the Cougars have allowed to their opponents (37.3%).
  • Baylor has a 26-1 straight-up record and a 17-8-1 record against the spread in games it shoots better than 37.3% from the field.
  • Houston is 20-8 against the spread and 27-3 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 48.7% from the field.
  • The Cougars have shot at a 43.7% clip from the field this season, 0.4 percentage points above the 43.3% shooting opponents of the Bears have averaged.
  • Houston is 11-2 against the spread and 14-0 overall when it shoots better than 43.3% from the field.
  • Baylor is 10-3 against the spread and 13-0 straight up in games when allowing opponents to shoot above 43.7% from the field.
  • The Bears are hitting 41% of their three-point shots this season, 12.7% higher than the 28.3% the Cougars allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Baylor has collected a 16-6-1 record against the spread and a 24-0 straight-up record in games this season when the team connects on more than 28.3% of its three-point shots.
  • Houston is 20-7 against the spread and 27-1 overall when its opponents make more than 41% of their shots from deep.
  • The Cougars three-point shooting percentage this season (35.4%) is 2.4 percentage points higher than opponents of the Bears are averaging (33%).
  • Houston has a 13-2 ATS record and is 16-1 straight-up when the team makes more than 33% of its three-point attempts.
  • Baylor has a 14-1 straight-up record and a 10-4 ATS record when it has shot better than 35.4% from three-point range.
  • Baylor is 12-6 against the spread and 18-1 overall when it makes more three-pointers than its opponents, while Houston is 1-4 ATS and 2-3 straight up in games when it is out-shot from deep.

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