Mavericks vs Thunder: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – March 29, 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 29, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

The Dallas Mavericks (23-21) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (19-26) as 9.5-point favorites after Tim Hardaway Jr. scored 30 points in the Mavericks’ 112-103 loss to the Pelicans. The game airs on FS-OK at 8:00 PM ET on Monday, March 29, 2021. The matchup’s point total is set at 216.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of March 29, 2021, 7:05 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Mavericks vs Thunder Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of March 29

Tyrell Terry: Out (Personal),
JJ Redick: Out (Heel),
Willie Cauley-Stein: Out (Health and Safety Protocols)

Luguentz Dort: Out (Concussion protocol),
Mike Muscala: Day To Day (Ankle),
Darius Bazley: Day To Day (Shoulder),
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Day To Day (Foot),
Tony Bradley: Day To Day (Not With Team)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Thunder (+9.5)
Total Pick Over (216.5)
Prediction Mavericks 112, Thunder 108

The model favors the Mavericks by 3.5 points, a much smaller margin than the 9.5-point spread set by DraftKings. Take the Thunder to cover.

In this game, the model projects a total (220.5 points) a little higher than the DraftKings over/under (216.5 points).

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Mavericks Key Players

Luka Doncic 39 28.6 8.3 9.1 1.0 0.6 2.9
Kristaps Porzingis 28 20.4 8.9 1.5 0.4 1.6 2.3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 43 16.8 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 3.0
Josh Richardson 35 12.9 3.5 2.7 1.0 0.4 1.6
Jalen Brunson 40 12.6 3.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 1.2

Mavericks Player Props

  • Luka Doncic’s points prop total for the game is set at 28.5, 0.1 points lower than his season average of 28.6.
  • Kristaps Porzingis’ PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 34.5, 3.7 greater than his season average of 30.8.
  • Hardaway’s three pointers made prop over/under for the contest is set at 4.5, 1.5 shots higher than his season average of 3.0.
  • Josh Richardson’s steals prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, 0.5 steals higher than his season average of 1.0.

Thunder Key Players

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35 23.7 4.8 5.9 0.8 0.7 2.0
Al Horford 28 14.2 6.7 3.4 0.9 0.9 2.0
Luguentz Dort 41 12.6 3.4 1.6 0.8 0.4 2.0
Darius Bazley 36 11.9 7.5 1.5 0.5 0.6 1.5
Ty Jerome 13 9.8 3.2 3.4 0.8 0.2 2.2

Shooting Trends

  • The Mavericks are shooting 47% from the field this season, 0.5 percentage points higher than the 46.5% the Thunder allow to opponents.
  • Dallas has a 14-9 record against the spread and a 17-6 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 46.5% from the field.
  • Oklahoma City’s record is 15-7-1 against the spread and 12-11 overall when its opponents make more than 47% of their shots from the field.
  • The Thunder’s 44.8% shooting percentage from the field this season is the same as the Mavericks have given up to their opponents.
  • This season, Oklahoma City has a 12-5 record against the spread and a 10-7 record overall in games the team collectively shoots better than 46% from the field.
  • This season, Dallas has a 15-3 record against the spread and a 14-4 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot greater than 44.8% from the field.
  • The Mavericks’ 35.9% three-point shooting percentage this season is just 0.9 percentage points higher than opponents of the Thunder have shot from deep (35%).
  • Dallas has put together a 13-10 record against the spread and a 16-7 straight-up record in games this season when the team makes more than 35% of its three-point attempts.
  • Oklahoma City has put up an 18-9 against the spread while going 14-13 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 35.9% from downtown.
  • The Thunder are hitting 34.8% of their shots from three-point range, which is only 2.3 percentage points fewer than the 37.1% the Mavericks’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Oklahoma City is 12-4-1 ATS and 11-6 overall when the team makes more than 37.1% of its three-point attempts.
  • Dallas has a 13-2 ATS record and a 13-2 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 34.8% from three-point range.
  • The Mavericks connect on 13.5 three-pointers per game this season, only 0.6 more made shots on average than the 12.9 per game the Thunder allow.
  • Dallas is 15-5 against the spread and 16-4 overall when it hit more threes than its opponents, while Oklahoma City is 6-12-1 ATS and 4-15 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.
  • The Thunder are the 14th-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Mavericks give up the 24th-fewest makes from deep.

Mavericks vs Thunder Stat Rankings

Mavericks Rank Mavericks AVG Thunder AVG Thunder Rank
18th 111.8 Points Scored 106.1 27th
14th 111 Points Allowed 112 17th
20th 43.2 Rebounds 44.7 12th
26th 8.6 Off. Rebounds 8.4 28th
9th 13.5 3pt Made 12.9 14th
27th 22.6 Assists 22.8 25th
3rd 11.6 Turnovers 14.1 23rd

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