Gonzaga vs. USC Picks & Best Bets — Elite 8 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 30, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

The No. 1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-0) are 8.5-point favorites to grab a spot in the Final Four when they head into an NCAA Tournament Elite 8 contest against the No. 6 seed USC Trojans (22-7) to determine the winner of the West Region bracket on Tuesday at Lucas Oil Stadium, tipping off at 8:15 PM ET, airing on TBS.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 29, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Pick Em

The model line and the DraftKings line are within 0.0 points of each other.

Pick OU: Under (155.5)

The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 5.4 points higher than the model projection.

Prediction: Gonzaga 79, USC 71

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Bulldogs have an average implied point total of 89.3 this season, which is 7.3 points higher than their implied total in Tuesday’s game (82).
  • Gonzaga has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (82) 26 times this season.
  • The 72.9-point average implied total on the season for the Trojans is 1.1 fewer points than the team’s 74-point implied total in this matchup.
  • USC has put up more than 74 points 15 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Gonzaga and USC Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 8.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bulldogs 14-12-2 11-12-2 15-13
Trojans 18-11-1 7-5 16-14

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Bulldogs have a 55.1% shooting percentage from the field, which is 16.2% higher than the 38.9% of shots the Trojans’ opponents have made.
  • Gonzaga is 14-12-2 against the spread and 29-0 overall in games when it collectively shoots better than 38.9% from the field.
  • USC’s record is 18-11-1 against the spread and 24-7 overall when it allows its opponents to hit more than 55.1% of their shots from the field.
  • The Trojans’ 47.2% shooting percentage from the field this season is 5.7 percentage points higher than the Bulldogs have given up to their opponents (41.5%).
  • This season, USC has put up a 16-6-1 record against the spread and a 20-3 record overall in games the team shoots over 41.5% collectively from the field.
  • This season, Gonzaga has an 11-12-1 record against the spread and a 25-0 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot above 47.2% from the field.
  • The Bulldogs are making 37.1% of their three-point shots this season, 3.3% higher than the 33.8% the Trojans allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Gonzaga is 16-0 overall and 9-6-1 against the spread when it shoots better than 33.8% from distance.
  • USC is 13-4 against the spread while putting together a 16-2 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 37.1% of their shots from beyond the arc.
  • The Trojans three-point shooting percentage this season (35.5%) is 3.5 percentage points higher than opponents of the Bulldogs are averaging (32%).
  • USC’s record is 14-4-1 ATS and 16-3 overall when the team makes more than 32% of its three-point attempts.
  • Gonzaga has a 12-6-1 ATS record and a 20-0 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 35.5% from deep.
  • The Bulldogs knock down 7.6 three-pointers per game this season, 1.2 more made shots on average than the 6.4 per game the Trojans allow.
  • Gonzaga has gone 10-7-1 against the spread and 18-0 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When USC hits fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 6-7-1 ATS and 10-5 straight up.

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