Houston vs. Oregon State Picks & Best Bets — Elite 8 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 29, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

The No. 2 seed Houston Cougars (24-3) are 7.5-point favorites to advance to the Final Four when they match up with the No. 12 seed Oregon State Beavers (17-12) in the NCAA Tournament Elite 8 on Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium, airing on CBS beginning at 7:15 PM ET.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 29, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Houston Cougars (-7.5)

The Cougars are the bet in this matchup. They’re favored by 3.8 more points in the model than DraftKings (11.3 to 7.5).

Pick OU: Over (129)

In this game, the model projects a total (135.7 points) a little higher than the DraftKings over/under (129 points).

Prediction: Houston 74, Oregon State 62

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Cougars this season is 73.4 points, 5.4 more points than their implied total of 68 points in Monday’s game.
  • Houston is aiming to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (68) for the 23rd time this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Beavers (72.1) is 11.1 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (61).
  • Oregon State has put up more than 61 points 26 times on the season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Houston and Oregon State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 7.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Cougars 20-8 17-7 14-14
Beavers 21-9-1 1-3 18-13

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Cougars have a 44.1% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.5% higher than the 42.6% of shots the Beavers’ opponents have made.
  • Houston is 12-2 against the spread and 15-0 overall in games when it collectively shoots higher than 42.6% from the field.
  • Oregon State’s record is 14-2-1 against the spread and 14-4 overall when it allows its opponents to hit more than 44.1% of their shots from the field.
  • The Beavers are shooting 43.5% from the field, 6.5% higher than the 37% the Cougars’ opponents have shot this season.
  • This season, Oregon State has a 20-6 record overall and a 20-4-1 record against the spread in games the team collectively shoots higher than 37% from the field.
  • When Houston’s opponents hit better than 43.5% from the field, it is 18-5 against the spread and 22-2 overall.
  • The Cougars’ 35.4% three-point shooting percentage this season is 5.6 percentage points higher than opponents of the Beavers have shot from deep (29.8%).
  • Houston is 20-2 overall and 16-4 against the spread when it shoots better than 29.8% from distance.
  • Oregon State has put up an 18-3-1 against the spread while going 18-5 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 35.4% from deep.
  • The Beavers shoot 35.6% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 7.6 percentage points higher than the Cougars have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (28%).
  • Oregon State has a 17-6-1 ATS record and is 17-8 straight-up in games when the team hits better than 28% of its three-point attempts.
  • Houston has a 17-4 ATS record and a 21-1 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 35.6% from downtown.
  • The Cougars hit 9.1 three-pointers per game this season, 2.1 more made shots on average than the 7 per game the Beavers give up.
  • Houston has gone 19-2 against the spread and 23-0 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Oregon State hits fewer threes than its opponents, it is 6-4-1 ATS and 7-4 straight up.

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