Michigan vs. UCLA Picks & Best Bets — Elite 8 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 30, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

The top-seeded Michigan Wolverines (20-4) and the No. 11 UCLA Bruins (17-9) will compete for a spot in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday. Michigan is favored by 7.5 points in the East Region bracket final, which tips off at 9:45 PM ET.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 29, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Bruins (+7.5)

The spread for this game suggested by the model (6.8 points) is slightly less than the 7.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Wolverines, though the data still has them as the favorite.

Pick OU:
Over (135.5)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (142.1 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (135.5 points).

Prediction: Michigan 74, UCLA 68

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Wolverines have an average implied point total of 76.1 this season, which is 4.1 points higher than their implied total in Tuesday’s game (72).
  • This season, Michigan has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (72) 18 times.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Bruins (71.7) is 7.7 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (64).
  • UCLA has totaled more than 64 points 24 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Michigan and UCLA Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 7.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Wolverines 19-7 11-4 11-15
Bruins 15-14 3-5 17-12

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Wolverines have a 48.7% shooting percentage from the field, which is 5.1% higher than the 43.6% of shots the Bruins’ opponents have made.
  • Michigan has compiled an 18-3 record against the spread and a 22-0 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 43.6% from the field.
  • UCLA is 18-7 overall and 14-10 against the spread when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 48.7% from the field.
  • The Bruins have shot at a 45.9% rate from the field this season, 6.6 percentage points above the 39.3% shooting opponents of the Wolverines have averaged.
  • UCLA has put together a 14-11 record against the spread and a 19-7 record overall in games when it shoots above 39.3% from the field.
  • This season, Michigan has a 16-5 record against the spread and a 20-2 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot above 45.9% from the field.
  • The Wolverines’ 38.4% three-point shooting percentage this season is 4.6 percentage points higher than opponents of the Bruins have shot from beyond the arc (33.8%).
  • Michigan has a 14-2 record against the spread and a 17-0 record overall when the team hits more than 33.8% of its shots from three-point range.
  • UCLA is 13-5 against the spread while putting up a 14-5 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 38.4% from downtown.
  • The Bruins three-point shooting percentage this season (37.3%) is 4.9 percentage points higher than opponents of the Wolverines are averaging (32.4%).
  • UCLA is 16-5 straight-up and has an 11-9 ATS record when the team hits more than 32.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • Michigan has a 15-5 ATS record and a 19-2 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 37.3% from deep.
  • Michigan has gone 11-3 against the spread and 13-2 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When UCLA hits fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 5-10 ATS and 9-6 straight up.

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