Nuggets vs Hawks: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – March 28, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 28, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

A game after he scored 38 points in a 124-108 win over the Warriors, John Collins leads the Atlanta Hawks (23-22) on the road against the Denver Nuggets (27-18) on Sunday, March 28, 2021. The Hawks are underdogs by 4.5 points in the matchup, which starts at 9:00 PM ET on NBA TV. The point total is set at 227 for the matchup.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of March 28, 2021, 1:05 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Nuggets vs Hawks Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of March 28

Nuggets:
Greg Whittington: Day To Day (Knee),
Monte Morris: Out (Quad)

Hawks:
Cam Reddish: Out (Achilles),
Lou Williams: Out (Not With Team),
Kris Dunn: Out (Ankle),
De’Andre Hunter: Day To Day (Knee)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Nuggets (-4.5)
Total Pick Under (227)
Prediction Nuggets 115, Hawks 110

Both DraftKings and the model expect the Nuggets to walk away with the win, but the model spread (5.2) is 0.7 points further in their direction.

In this game, the model projects a total (224.9 points) marginally lower than the DraftKings over/under (227 points).

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Nuggets Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Nikola Jokic 45 27.2 11.2 8.6 1.6 0.6 1.6
Jamal Murray 43 21.1 3.9 5.0 1.3 0.3 2.7
Michael Porter Jr. 35 16.3 7.3 0.9 0.7 0.9 2.5
Aaron Gordon 25 14.6 6.6 4.2 0.6 0.8 1.7
Will Barton 42 12.5 4.0 3.0 0.9 0.5 1.7

Nuggets Player Props

  • Nikola Jokic’s PRA prop total for the matchup is set at 44.5, 2.4 less than his season average of 46.9.
  • Jamal Murray’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 2.5, 0.2 shots lower than his season average of 2.7.
  • Jokic’s steals prop over/under for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.1 steals less than his season average of 1.6.

Hawks Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Trae Young 43 25.7 4.0 9.5 0.8 0.2 2.4
John Collins 45 18.6 7.9 1.3 0.5 1.1 1.3
De’Andre Hunter 20 16.0 5.1 2.1 0.9 0.5 1.6
Clint Capela 39 14.7 14.2 0.9 0.7 2.2 0.0
Danilo Gallinari 33 12.7 3.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 2.1

Hawks Player Props

  • Trae Young’s points prop total for the game is set at 25.5, 0.2 points lower than his season average of 25.7.
  • Clint Capela’s rebounding prop total for the contest is set at 14.5 boards, 0.3 rebounds greater than his season average of 14.2.
  • Young’s three pointers made prop over/under for the contest is set at 2.5, 0.1 shots greater than his season average of 2.4.
  • Capela’s blocks prop over/under for the contest is set at 2.5, 0.3 blocks higher than his season average of 2.2.

Shooting Trends

  • The Nuggets make 48.7% of their shots from the field this season, which is three percentage points higher than the Hawks have allowed to their opponents (45.7%).
  • Denver is 18-14 against the spread and 22-10 overall when it shoots higher than 45.7% from the field.
  • Atlanta has an 18-10-1 record against the spread and a 21-8 record overall when allowing its opponents to knock down more than 48.7% of their shots from the field.
  • The Hawks are shooting 45.9% from the field, 1.2% lower than the 47.1% the Nuggets’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Atlanta has compiled a 12-6 record against the spread and an 11-7 straight up record in games it shoots above 47.1% from the field.
  • This season, Denver has a 14-3 record against the spread and a 16-1 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot over 45.9% from the field.
  • The Nuggets’ 38.6% three-point shooting percentage this season is 3.7 percentage points higher than opponents of the Hawks have shot from beyond the arc (34.9%).
  • Denver has put together a 16-16 record against the spread and a 20-12 straight-up record in games this season when the team knocks down more than 34.9% of its three-point shots.
  • Atlanta has put up a 19-11-1 against the spread while going 20-11 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 38.6% from deep.
  • The Hawks are making 36.3% of their shots from three-point range, which is just 0.2 percentage points fewer than the 36.5% the Nuggets’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Atlanta is 14-4-1 ATS and 14-5 overall when the team makes more than 36.5% of its three-point attempts.
  • Denver is 14-10 ATS and 18-6 overall in games it shoots over 36.3% from deep.
  • The Nuggets make 13.4 three-pointers per game this season, only 0.8 more makes per game than the Hawks allow 12.6.
  • Denver has gone 10-7 against the spread and 11-6 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Atlanta makes fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 6-15 ATS and 6-15 straight up.
  • The Nuggets make the 11th-most three-pointers in the league, while the Hawks give up the sixth-fewest makes from beyond the arc.

Nuggets vs Hawks Stat Rankings

Nuggets Rank Nuggets AVG Hawks AVG Hawks Rank
4th 115.6 Points Scored 112.7 14th
11th 110.9 Points Allowed 110.6 9th
17th 43.9 Rebounds 45.9 6th
11th 10.4 Off. Rebounds 11.3 3rd
11th 13.4 3pt Made 12.6 18th
4th 26.9 Assists 24.3 18th
5th 12.5 Turnovers 13.2 13th

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