Baylor vs. Arkansas Picks & Best Bets — Elite 8 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 28, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

The top-seeded Baylor Bears (22-2) and the No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks (22-6) will compete for a spot in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament on Monday. Baylor is favored by in the South Region bracket final.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 28, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Arkansas Razorbacks (+7)

The model favors the Bears by 4.2 points, 2.8 less than the 7-point spread set by DraftKings.

Pick OU: Over (149)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (150.2 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (149 points).

Prediction: Baylor 77, Arkansas 73

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Bears’ average implied point total this season is 1.7 more points than their implied total in Monday’s game (79.7 implied points on average compared to 78 implied points in this game).
  • Baylor has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (78) 16 times this season.
  • The Razorbacks’ average implied point total on the season (80.4 points) is 9.4 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (71 points).
  • Arkansas will attempt to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (71) for the 25th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Baylor and Arkansas Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 7+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bears 16-9-1 10-8-1 15-11
Razorbacks 20-10 9-4 15-15

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Bears are shooting 48.7% from the field this season, 7.3 percentage points higher than the 41.4% the Razorbacks allow to opponents.
  • Baylor has a 16-6-1 record against the spread and a 24-0 straight-up record in games it shoots better than 41.4% from the field.
  • Arkansas’ record is 23-3 overall and 19-6 against the spread when its opponents make more than 48.7% of their shots from the field.
  • The Razorbacks are shooting 45.1% from the field, 2% higher than the 43.1% the Bears’ opponents have shot this season.
  • This season, Arkansas has a 17-3 record against the spread and a 19-2 record overall in games the team collectively shoots higher than 43.1% from the field.
  • When Baylor’s opponents hit better than 45.1% from the field, it is 11-3 against the spread and 14-0 overall.
  • The Bears are knocking down 40.7% of their three-point shots this season, 7.5% higher than the 33.2% the Razorbacks allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Baylor has a 14-5-1 record against the spread and a 21-0 record overall when the team hits more than 33.2% of its three-point attempts.
  • Arkansas is 16-7 against the spread while putting together a 20-4 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 40.7% of their shots from three-point range.
  • The Razorbacks are making 33.2% of their shots from deep, which is just 0.1 percentage points greater than the 33.1% the Bears’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Arkansas is 11-3 against the spread and 13-2 overall when shooting above 33.1% as a team from three-point range.
  • Baylor is 9-3 ATS and 12-1 overall in games it shoots above 33.2% from deep.
  • The Bears hit 10 three-pointers per game this season, 2.6 more made shots on average than the 7.4 per game the Razorbacks allow.
  • Baylor has gone 11-6 against the spread and 17-1 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Arkansas hits fewer threes than its opponents, it is 9-7 ATS and 13-3 straight up.

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