I look forward to providing insight into the day’s games and hopefully enough to get each and every one of you in the money at the end of the day. I can be found on FanDuel and DraftKings as bravesbaseball12 and on Twitter. Please provide feedback on this article so I can meet your needs and continue to improve it!
In this weekly article, you will find 3 different sections:
Pitchers — broken down by notable “Studs” OR “Value Plays” OR “GPP Plays”
Hitters — broken down by notable “Studs” OR “Value Plays” OR “GPP Plays”
Stacks — broken down by “Popular” OR “GPP”
(Note on “Stacks” & “GPP Plays” — It’s no secret that often times, the way to take down a large GPP in Daily Fantasy is to build a successful stack of hitters from the same team. However, the fact that stacking seems to be most effective in fantasy (especially DraftKings), results in many teams going this route. The “Stud” OR “Value Plays” OR “Popular” stacks may be successful, but also are more likely to be highly owned. If you want to stand out, the GPP Plays, and Stacks could get you to the top of the leaderboard and allow you take home the big prize. It should go without saying, you never want a whole team of just “GPP plays.” While your reward has the potential to be tremendous, your risk also increases tremendously, giving you very little chance to succeed. Not a lot of us have the kind of money to expend at a high risk, so it’ll be important to combine these plays with some stud & value plays, even if you believe that particular player will be highly owned.)
Also, at the end of each player you’ll see “Potential” which will document a player’s probability of having either: High Floor/Low Ceiling (Low Risk, but can be expected to produce at his “normal rate,” often seen as a Cash Game Play) OR Low Floor/High Ceiling (high risk, high reward often seen as a GPP play), OR High Floor/High Ceiling (you won’t see this too often in daily fantasy baseball due to the volatility of baseball, but rare circumstances such as a huge matchup for the likes of Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton could warrant this rating).
Today’s Game Stats:
St. Louis (-165) @ Philadelphia – Over/Under: 7.5
Tampa Bay @ Cleveland (-181) – Over/Under: 7.0
Miami @ Cincinnati (-125) – Over/Under: 8.5
New York Mets (-108) @ Atlanta – Over/Under: 7.0
Boston @ Kansas City (-121) – Over/Under: 7.0
Detroit @ New York Yankees (-121) – Over/Under: 8.5
San Francisco @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-150) – Over/Under: 7.5
Houston (-118) @ Seattle – Over/Under: 6.5
San Diego (-108) @ Arizona – Over/Under: 8.0
Corey Kluber [SP, CLE] (DK: $10,400, FD: $11,000)
The Klubot has had his share of struggles this season but he is clearly the top pitching option on the board today. His 2.53 xFIP (Expected Fielding independent Pitching) which is top 10 in the league. His 10.4 K/9 rate is elite status and he faces off against a TB lineup that does scare me. His generous price on DK (21% of the salary cap) will make him the highest owned pitcher all around but his price on FanDuel (31% of the salary cap) should drive his ownership down a bit, perfect for GPPs. Regardless, he’s the number one option on the board and a huge favorite at home.
Aaron Harang [SP, PHI] (DK:$6,200 FD: $6,900)
Harang should be happy to return home to Philly tonight as his last two road starts (allowing a combined 11 runs in 12 IP) have not been too kind. At Citizens Bank Park, he’s pitched 46 IP and sports a 0.99 WHIP and 1.98 ERA. He’ll face a Cardinals team that has struck out the 8th most vs. RHP and who are 27th in wOBA (weighted on-base average) on the road. The Harangatang is a low-budget option (12% of salary cap on FD, 20% on DK) who should definitely go under the radar tonight. You’re probably looking at >5% ownership in GPPs and he’s worth a flier in my book.
Robbie Ray [SP, ARI] (DK: $5,600, FD: $6,800)
This is more of a DraftKings only play for me as his price is just 11% of the salary cap but it will be a risky one. San Diego leads the league in almost every offensive category vs. LHP and get a bump playing at Chase Field. With that said, they also have the 3rd highest strikeout percentage vs. lefties. Ray confuses me a bit as he has put him great strikeout rates in the minors but has yet to translate that to the MLB level–in fact he’s been very underwhelming when it comes to strikeouts in the big leagues. There’s certainly some potential for K’s tonight but I do see this play as a true boom-or-bust option. If you’re entering multiple GPP’s, I think it’s worth throwing him in one or two to get some exposure.
Joey Votto [1B, CIN] (DK: $4,800, FD: $4,000)
PICK ME! PICK ME! If this pick could talk, it’d be saying those two words because this one is staring us right in the face. Votto’s ISO (isolated power) at home vs. RHP? .351. Even if you know nothing about ISO, trust me here: that number is out of this world. Tom Koehler has allowed 10 of his 11 HR to LHB, and 8 of those have come on the road. I’m calling double-dong for Votto tonight! Insert him in everywhere.
High Floor/High Ceiling
Jace Peterson [2B/3B, ATL] (DK: $3,500 FD: $3,100)
Jace often goes over-looked due to his perceived lack of power, but the kid’s got some pop in his bat and is on a tear. He’s been very consistent putting up 5 or more DK points since 6/10 every day but one. 3 of those occurrences, Jace posted double digits. He’s in the lead-off spot every day for Atlanta, has 7 steals in 14 attempts (not good, but we like to see the attempts) and an .112 ISO vs. RHP — 20 points higher than his career ISO vs. RHP. I see a sneaky play with upside at a great price.
High Floor / Medium Upside
Derek Norris [C, SD] (DK: $3,800, FD: $3,000)
Norris isn’t necessarily a value play when you look at the depth of the catcher position tonight but nonetheless, he’s a great option and I expect him to have a 15-20% ownership in GPPs. Norris loves facing lefties and has posted a ..375 wOBA & .188 vs them this season. He’s my top option on the board and probably should be yours too.
Alex Guerrero [OF, LAD] (DK: $3,000 FD: $2,400)
This play obviously hinges on if he makes the starting lineup but if he does, I think he deserves a look. Guerrero has a .326 ISO vs. RHP with 8 of his 10 coming vs. righties (4 of those at home). He provides great upside at a low price and is an excellent GPP play if he makes the starting 9.
Low Floor / High Upside
Paul Goldschmidt [1B, ARI] (DK: $5,600, FD: $5,600)
Price is a big contributor to this play and I think it’s a wonderful spot for Goldy. He’s matchup-proof but want to know the real reason he’s being put here? Tyson Ross has allowed a ML-leading 22 stolen bases against him. Derek Norris is a sub-par catcher. Goldy has 11 steals on the year and #12 is coming tonight. He’s seen Ross 17 times and has a triple and 2 HR’s. I loveeee Goldy as a GPP play tonight.
High Floor / High Upside
Francisco Lindor [SS, CLE] (DK: $3,700, FD: $2,300)
BOLD CALL: Lindor gets his first ML HR tonight. He’s dirt cheap on both sites and provides the upside you want in a GPP play, especially at a thin position like SS. He’s got speed and some good pop and is my favorite shortstop tonight.
Popular Stack: San Diego Padres (vs. LHP Robbie Ray)
GPP Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. RHP Tyson Ross)
Other Stacks to Target:
Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers