Heat vs Trail Blazers: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – March 25, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 25, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

The Miami Heat (22-22) are 4.5-point favorites as they look to break a four-game losing streak when they host the Portland Trail Blazers (25-18) on Thursday, March 25, 2021 at American Airlines Arena. The matchup airs at 7:30 PM ET on SUN. The matchup has an over/under set at 217.5 points.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of March 25, 2021, 7:05 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Heat vs Trail Blazers Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of March 25

KZ Okpala: Out (Health Protocols),
Avery Bradley: Day To Day (Calf),
Udonis Haslem: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Goran Dragic: Day To Day (Back)

Trail Blazers:
Nassir Little: Day To Day (Health Protocols),
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (Wrist),
Anfernee Simons: Day To Day (Health Protocols),
Zach Collins: Out (Ankle)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Trail Blazers (+4.5)
Total Pick Over (217.5)
Prediction Heat 113, Trail Blazers 109

The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (3.7 points) is a little bit less than the 4.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Heat, though the data still has them as the favorite.

The model projects a total 4.4 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Heat Key Players

Jimmy Butler 30 21.3 7.9 7.3 2.0 0.4 0.4
Bam Adebayo 38 19.2 9.5 5.4 0.9 1.1 0.1
Tyler Herro 33 15.1 5.4 3.4 0.7 0.4 1.8
Goran Dragic 28 13.9 3.2 4.9 0.6 0.2 1.6
Kendrick Nunn 36 13.3 3.2 2.6 1.1 0.3 2.0

Trail Blazers Key Players

Damian Lillard 42 30.1 4.4 7.7 0.9 0.2 4.3
CJ McCollum 18 23.8 3.8 4.3 1.1 0.3 4.4
Gary Trent Jr. 41 15.0 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.1 3.0
Carmelo Anthony 42 14.0 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.7 1.8
Enes Kanter 43 12.1 11.6 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.0

Shooting Trends

  • The Heat make 45.6% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the Trail Blazers have allowed to their opponents (48.1%).
  • Miami is 10-5 against the spread and 12-3 overall when it shoots higher than 48.1% from the field.
  • Portland has an 11-4 record against the spread and an 11-4 record overall when allowing its opponents to make more than 45.6% of their shots from the field.
  • The Trail Blazers’ 44.4% shooting percentage from the field this season is 0.1 percentage points lower than the Heat have allowed to their opponents (44.5%).
  • This season, Portland has a 12-8 record against the spread and a 17-3 record overall in games the team collectively shoots above 44.5% from the field.
  • Miami is 12-11 against the spread and 16-7 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 44.4% from the field.
  • The Heat’s 34.3% three-point shooting percentage this season is 3.3 percentage points lower than opponents of the Trail Blazers have shot from deep (37.6%).
  • Miami is 7-5 against the spread and 9-3 overall when it shoots better than 37.6% from distance.
  • Portland has put up an 11-6 against the spread while going 11-6 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 34.3% from downtown.
  • The Trail Blazers’ three-point shooting percentage this season (37.9%) is only 1.7 percentage points higher than opponents of the Heat are averaging (36.2%).
  • Portland is 16-9 ATS and 19-6 overall when the team hits more than 36.2% of its three-point attempts.
  • Miami has a 13-16 ATS record and a 17-12 straight-up record this season when it connects on more than 37.9% of its three-point attempts.
  • The Heat’s 12.5 made three-pointers per game this season is 3.7 fewer made shots on average than the 16.2 per game the Trail Blazers allow.
  • Portland is 18-14 against the spread and 22-10 overall when it makes more three-pointers than its opponents, while Miami is 9-19 ATS and 11-17 straight up in games when it is out-shot from the three-point line.
  • The Trail Blazers are the second-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Heat allow the 28th-fewest makes from deep.

Heat vs Trail Blazers Stat Rankings

Heat Rank Heat AVG Trail Blazers AVG Trail Blazers Rank
27th 106.2 Points Scored 114.4 10th
4th 107.6 Points Allowed 115.5 27th
25th 42.9 Rebounds 43.5 27th
29th 8.1 Off. Rebounds 10.6 7th
18th 12.5 3pt Made 16.2 2nd
12th 25.7 Assists 20 30th
24th 14.2 Turnovers 11 1st

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