USC vs. Oregon Picks & Best Bets — Sweet 16 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 23, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

A Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament matchup between the No. 6 USC Trojans (22-7) and No. 7 Oregon Ducks (20-6) will determine one of the squads heading to the West Region bracket final when it tips off on Sunday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, tipping off at 9:45 PM ET, airing on TBS. Sportsbooks think USC will survive and advance in this one, setting the Trojans as 1.5-point favorites.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 23, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: USC Trojans (-1.5)

Both DraftKings and the model expect the Trojans to walk away with the win, but the model spread (2.7) is 1.2 points further in their direction.

Pick OU: Over (139)

The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 2.3 points lower than the model projection.

Prediction: USC 72, Oregon 69

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Trojans’ average implied point total this season is three more points than their implied total in Sunday’s game (73 implied points on average compared to 70 implied points in this game).
  • USC has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (70) 20 times.
  • The Ducks’ average implied point total on the season (74.3 points) is 5.3 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (69 points).
  • Oregon has scored more than 69 points in 21 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

USC and Oregon Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 1.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Trojans 17-11-1 15-10 15-14
Ducks 15-11 13-8 17-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Trojans have a 46.9% shooting percentage from the field, which is 3.1% higher than the 43.8% of shots the Ducks’ opponents have knocked down.
  • USC has a 15-4-1 record against the spread and a 19-1 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 43.8% from the field.
  • Oregon has put together a 10-8 record against the spread and a 15-4 record overall when its opponents hit more than 46.9% of their shots from the field.
  • The Ducks are shooting 47.6% from the field, 8.6% higher than the 39% the Trojans’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Oregon has compiled a 15-9 record against the spread and a 20-5 straight up record in games it shoots over 39% from the field.
  • When USC’s opponents hit better than 47.6% from the field, it is 16-8-1 against the spread and 20-6 overall.
  • The Trojans are knocking down 34.7% of their three-point shots this season, 1.2% higher than the 33.5% the Ducks allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • USC is 11-4-1 against the spread and 13-3 overall when it shoots better than 33.5% from distance.
  • Oregon is 9-5 against the spread while putting up an 11-3 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 34.7% of their shots from downtown.
  • The Ducks three-point shooting percentage this season (38.2%) is 4.1 percentage points higher than opponents of the Trojans are averaging (34.1%).
  • Oregon’s record is 12-5 ATS and 16-2 overall when the team makes more than 34.1% of its three-point attempts.
  • USC has a 13-5 ATS record and a 17-2 straight-up record this season when it makes more than 38.2% of its three-point attempts.
  • The Trojans make 6.3 three-pointers per game this season, 2.2 fewer made shots on average than the 8.5 per game the Ducks give up.
  • The Ducks are 10-5 against the spread and 14-1 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Trojans are 6-7-1 ATS and 10-5 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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