Michigan vs. Florida State Picks & Best Bets — Sweet 16 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 23, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

A Sweet 16 battle features the No. 1 seed Michigan Wolverines (20-4) playing as favorites against the No. 4 seed Florida State Seminoles (16-6) on Sunday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The NCAA Tournament contest tips off at 5:00 PM ET on CBS, with the winner moving on to the East Region bracket final.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 23, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Florida State Seminoles (+3)

The model line and the DraftKings line are within 0.1 points of each other.

Pick OU: Under (145.5)

The DraftKings total for this game, 145.5 points, and the model’s projected total, 144.8 points, are only 0.7 points apart.

Prediction: Michigan 74, Florida State 71

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Wolverines’ average implied point total this season is 2.2 more points than their implied total in Sunday’s game (76.2 implied points on average compared to 74 implied points in this game).
  • Michigan has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (74) 16 times this season.
  • The 74.5-point average implied total on the season for the Seminoles is 3.5 more points than the team’s 71-point implied total in this matchup.
  • This season, Florida State has scored more than this game’s implied total of 71 points 18 times.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Michigan and Florida State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 3+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Wolverines 18-7 15-7 11-14
Seminoles 13-10 8-8 14-8-1

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Wolverines are shooting 48.7% from the field this season, 9.5 percentage points higher than the 39.2% the Seminoles allow to opponents.
  • Michigan has a 22-2 straight-up record and an 18-5 record against the spread in games it shoots higher than 39.2% from the field.
  • Florida State is 18-5 overall and 13-9 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot higher than 48.7% from the field.
  • The Seminoles’ 47.8% shooting percentage from the field this season is 8.6 percentage points higher than the Wolverines have given up to their opponents (39.2%).
  • Florida State is 13-7 against the spread and 16-5 overall when shooting better than 39.2% from the field.
  • Michigan is 15-7 against the spread and 19-4 straight up in games when allowing opponents to shoot greater than 47.8% from the field.
  • The Wolverines are knocking down 38.6% of their three-point shots this season, 6.1% higher than the 32.5% the Seminoles allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Michigan has assembled a 15-2 record against the spread and an 18-0 straight-up record in games this season when the team knocks down more than 32.5% of its three-point shots.
  • Florida State is 10-5 overall and 7-8 against the spread when its opponents shoot higher than 38.6% from deep.
  • The Seminoles shoot 38.1% from three-point distance this season. That’s 5.4 percentage points higher than the Wolverines have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (32.7%).
  • Florida State is 12-4 ATS and 14-2 overall when the team hits more than 32.7% of its three-point attempts.
  • Michigan has a 15-5 ATS record and a 19-2 straight-up record in games this season when it connects on more than 38.1% of its three-point shots.
  • The Seminoles are 7-4 against the spread and 8-3 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Wolverines are 4-3 ATS and 5-2 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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