Alabama vs. UCLA Picks & Best Bets — Sweet 16 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 23, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

The No. 11 UCLA Bruins (17-9) are underdogs for their Sweet 16 matchup against the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (24-6) on Sunday at 7:15 PM ET as the NCAA Tournament continues.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 23, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: UCLA Bruins (+6)

The DraftKings line for this matchup is within 0.1 points of the model. Stay away from this one.

Pick OU: Over (138.5)

The model predicts a total 6.6 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.

Prediction: Alabama 76, UCLA 70

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Crimson Tide this season is 79.6 points, 7.6 more points than their implied total of 72 points in Sunday’s game.
  • Alabama has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (72) 21 times.
  • The Bruins’ average implied point total on the season (71.5 points) is 5.5 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (66 points).
  • UCLA has scored more than 66 points 21 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Alabama and UCLA Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 6+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Crimson Tide 17-13-1 10-6 15-16
Bruins 14-14 3-7 16-12

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Crimson Tide make 43.5% of their shots from the field this season, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the Bruins have allowed to their opponents (43.6%).
  • Alabama is 11-3 against the spread and 15-0 overall in games when it shoots higher than 43.6% from the field.
  • UCLA is 12-2 overall and 8-5 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot better than 43.5% from the field.
  • The Bruins are shooting 46.2% from the field, 5.3% higher than the 40.9% the Crimson Tide’s opponents have shot this season.
  • UCLA is 19-6 overall and 14-10 against the spread when it hits more than 40.9% of its attempts from the field.
  • When Alabama’s opponents hit better than 46.2% from the field, it is 14-9 against the spread and 21-3 overall.
  • The Crimson Tide are knocking down 35.4% of their three-point shots this season, 1.2% higher than the 34.2% the Bruins allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Alabama is 11-3 against the spread and 14-1 overall when it shoots better than 34.2% from distance.
  • UCLA has put together a 12-4 straight-up record and gone 11-4 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot above 35.4% from downtown.
  • The Bruins shoot 37.5% from three-point distance this season. That’s 8.6 percentage points higher than the Crimson Tide have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (28.9%).
  • UCLA is 11-10 against the spread and 16-6 overall when it shoots over 28.9% as a team from deep.
  • Alabama is 21-4 overall and 13-10-1 ATS in games it shoots above 37.5% from deep.
  • The Crimson Tide connect on 10.7 three-pointers per game this season, 3.9 more made shots on average than the 6.8 per game the Bruins give up.
  • Alabama has gone 13-8-1 against the spread and 19-4 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When UCLA hits fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 5-10 ATS and 9-6 straight up.

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