Baylor vs. Villanova Picks & Best Bets — Sweet 16 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 22, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

The South Region bracket’s No. 1 seed Baylor Bears (22-2) are favorites to defeat the No. 5 Villanova Wildcats (16-6) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday at 5:15 PM ET, live from Hinkle Fieldhouse.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 22, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Villanova Wildcats (+6.5)

The model and DraftKings both have the Bears taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (4.2 points). Lean towards taking the Wildcats.

Pick OU: Over (140)

The model predicts a total 6.1 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game.

Prediction: Baylor 75, Villanova 71

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Bears have an average implied point total of 79.8 this season, which is 6.8 points higher than their implied total in Saturday’s game (73).
  • Baylor has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (73) 23 times this season.
  • The Wildcats’ average implied point total on the season (76 points) is nine points higher than their implied total in this matchup (67 points).
  • This season, Villanova has scored more than this game’s implied total of 67 points 21 times.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Baylor and Villanova Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 6.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bears 15-9-1 10-8-1 15-10
Wildcats 13-8 7-6 10-11

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Bears are shooting 48.9% from the field this season, 4.8 percentage points higher than the 44.1% the Wildcats allow to opponents.
  • Baylor is 20-0 overall and 14-4-1 against the spread when it shoots better than 44.1% from the field.
  • Villanova has a 12-6 record against the spread and a 15-4 record overall when allowing its opponents to hit more than 48.9% of their shots from the field.
  • The Wildcats have shot at a 45.3% clip from the field this season, 2.2 percentage points above the 43.1% shooting opponents of the Bears have averaged.
  • Villanova has compiled a 9-4 record against the spread and a 14-1 straight up record in games it shoots better than 43.1% from the field.
  • This season, Baylor has a 14-0 straight up record and a 10-4 record against the spread when it allows opponents to shoot greater than 45.3% from the field.
  • The Bears shoot 41.5% from deep, 6.5% higher than the 35% the Wildcats allow to opponents.
  • Baylor is 14-4-1 against the spread and 20-0 overall when it shoots better than 35% from downtown.
  • Villanova is 10-5 against the spread while putting together a 14-3 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 41.5% of their shots from beyond the arc.
  • The Wildcats are knocking down 35.8% of their shots from three-point distance, which is 2.2 percentage points higher than the 33.6% the Bears’ are averaging on the season.
  • Villanova is 13-1 overall and 8-4 against the spread when it shoots over 33.6% as a team from three-point range.
  • Baylor has an 8-4 ATS record and a 12-1 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 35.8% from deep.
  • Baylor has gone 11-6 against the spread and 17-1 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Villanova makes fewer threes than its opponents, it is 4-5 ATS and 5-5 straight up.

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