Michigan vs. LSU Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 22, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

The No. 1 seed from the East Region bracket, the Michigan Wolverines (20-4), play the No. 8 seed LSU Tigers (18-9) on Monday with a spot in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on the line. Michigan has been installed as a favorite to win this second round matchup, which begins at 7:10 PM ET on CBS.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 22, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Michigan Wolverines (-5)

The model projects the Wolverines to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by slightly more points (6.5 to 5).

Pick OU: Over (149)

The DraftKings total for this game, 149 points, and the model’s projected total, 149.3 points, are only 0.3 points apart.

Prediction: Michigan 78, LSU 71

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Wolverines’ average implied point total this season is 0.8 fewer points than their implied total in Monday’s game (76.2 implied points on average compared to 77 implied points in this game).
  • This season, Michigan has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (77) 15 times.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Tigers (80.6) is 8.6 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (72).
  • LSU has scored more than 72 points 25 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Michigan and LSU Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Wolverines 17-7 13-7 10-14
Tigers 15-13 5-6 17-11

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Wolverines are shooting 48.5% from the field this season, 6.9 percentage points higher than the 41.6% the Tigers allow to opponents.
  • In games when Michigan shoots higher than 41.6% from the field, it is 16-4 against the spread and 20-1 overall.
  • LSU has gone 14-9 against the spread and 17-6 overall in games it allows its opponents to shoot higher than 48.5% from the field.
  • The Tigers have shot at a 46.1% rate from the field this season, 6.9 percentage points greater than the 39.2% shooting opponents of the Wolverines have averaged.
  • LSU has put together a 19-5 straight up record and a 15-9 record against the spread in games it shoots higher than 39.2% from the field.
  • When Michigan’s opponents shoot greater than 46.1% from the field, it is 14-5 against the spread and 18-2 overall.
  • The Wolverines shoot 38.5% from beyond the arc, 9% higher than the 29.5% the Tigers allow to opponents.
  • Michigan has a 16-5 record against the spread and a 20-2 record overall when the team hits more than 29.5% of its three-point attempts.
  • LSU has gone 18-7 overall and has a 15-10 record against the spread in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 38.5% from downtown.
  • The Tigers’ three-point shooting percentage this season (34.7%) is just 1.8 percentage points higher than opponents of the Wolverines are averaging (32.9%).
  • LSU is 13-7 against the spread and 16-4 overall when it shoots over 32.9% as a team from deep.
  • Michigan is 14-1 overall and 11-3 ATS in games it shoots over 34.7% from deep.
  • The Tigers are 9-3 against the spread and 9-3 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Wolverines are 4-3 ATS and 5-2 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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