Florida State vs. Colorado Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 22, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

The No. 4 seed Florida State Seminoles (16-6) and the No. 5 seed Colorado Buffaloes (22-8) square off in the NCAA Tournament with a spot in the Sweet 16 of the East Region bracket up for grabs on Monday, beginning at 7:45 PM ET. Florida State is a favorite in the Round of 32 matchup, which airs on TBS.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 22, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Colorado Buffaloes (+1.5)

The model leans slightly toward betting on the Buffaloes in this one. The data favors them while DraftKings has the Seminoles favored, but the difference between the two is only 2.5 points.

Pick OU: Over (141)

The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 1.6 points lower than the model projection.

Prediction: Colorado 72, Florida State 71

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Seminoles this season is 74.6 points, 3.6 more points than their implied total of 71 points in Monday’s game.
  • So far this season, Florida State has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (71) 17 times.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Buffaloes (73.1) is 3.1 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (70).
  • Colorado has totaled more than 70 points 22 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Florida State and Colorado Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 1.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Seminoles 12-10 11-9 14-7-1
Buffaloes 17-12-2 15-8-2 13-17-1

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Seminoles are shooting 47.7% from the field this season, 5.9 percentage points higher than the 41.8% the Buffaloes allow to opponents.
  • Florida State has a 12-6 record against the spread and a 15-4 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 41.8% from the field.
  • Colorado is 19-4 overall and 16-7 against the spread when allowing opponents to shoot better than 47.7% from the field.
  • The Buffaloes are shooting 45.7% from the field, 6.3% higher than the 39.4% the Seminoles’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Colorado has put together a 16-9-2 record against the spread and a 21-6 straight up record in games it shoots above 39.4% from the field.
  • Florida State is 16-5 overall and 11-9 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 45.7% from the field.
  • The Seminoles shoot 38.2% from three-point range, 5% higher than the 33.2% the Buffaloes allow to opponents.
  • Florida State is 11-4 against the spread and 13-2 overall when it shoots better than 33.2% from downtown.
  • Colorado is 14-7-1 against the spread while putting together an 18-4 straight-up record when its opponents shoot above 38.2% from three-point distance.
  • The Buffaloes shoot 37.6% from three-point distance this season. That’s 4.8 percentage points higher than the Seminoles have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (32.8%).
  • Colorado has a 13-4-2 ATS record and is 17-2 straight-up when the team hits more than 32.8% of its three-point attempts.
  • Florida State has a 6-8 ATS record and a 9-5 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 37.6% from three-point range.
  • When Florida State makes more threes than its opponents, it is 7-4 against the spread and 8-3 overall. When Colorado is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 4-6 ATS and 6-4 straight up.

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