Alabama vs. Maryland Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 22, 2021 - Last Updated on April 2, 2021

The No. 2 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-6) are favorites as they look to secure a place in the Sweet 16 in an NCAA Tournament Round of 32 East Region bracket matchup against the No. 10 seed Maryland Terrapins (16-13) on Monday, beginning at 8:45 PM ET on TNT.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 22, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Alabama Crimson Tide (-5.5)

The DraftKings line for this game has the Crimson Tide favored by 5.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by slightly more (6.8 points).

Pick OU: Over (138.5)

The model projects a total 1.9 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.

Prediction: Alabama 74, Maryland 67

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Crimson Tide have an average implied point total of 79.9 this season, which is 7.9 points higher than their implied total in Monday’s game (72).
  • Alabama has surpassed its implied point total for this matchup (72) 20 times this season.
  • The 71.8-point average implied total on the season for the Terrapins is 4.8 more points than the team’s 67-point implied total in this matchup.
  • This season, Maryland has scored more than this game’s implied total of 67 points 15 times.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Alabama and Maryland Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 5.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Crimson Tide 16-13-1 9-7 14-16
Terrapins 10-15 3-4 10-14-1

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Crimson Tide are shooting 43.1% from the field this season, 2.4 percentage points higher than the 40.7% the Terrapins allow to opponents.
  • Alabama is 19-0 overall and 12-5-1 against the spread when it shoots better than 40.7% from the field.
  • Maryland is 8-7 against the spread and 14-5 overall in games it allows its opponents to shoot better than 43.1% from the field.
  • The Terrapins’ 45.7% shooting percentage from the field this season is 5.2 percentage points higher than the Crimson Tide have allowed to their opponents (40.5%).
  • This season, Maryland has compiled an 8-10 record against the spread and a 15-7 record overall in games the team shoots above 40.5% collectively from the field.
  • Alabama is 14-8 against the spread and 21-2 straight up in games when allowing opponents to shoot above 45.7% from the field.
  • The Crimson Tide shoot 35% from three-point range, 1.1% higher than the 33.9% the Terrapins allow to opponents.
  • Alabama has put together a 13-1 straight-up record and a 10-3 record against the spread in games when the team makes more than 33.9% of its three-point shots this season.
  • Maryland is 8-6 against the spread while putting up a 13-5 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 35% of their shots from three-point distance.
  • The Terrapins three-point shooting percentage this season (35.7%) is 7.2 percentage points higher than opponents of the Crimson Tide are averaging (28.5%).
  • Maryland is 10-10 ATS and 16-8 overall when the team hits more than 28.5% of its three-point attempts.
  • Alabama has an 11-8-1 ATS record and a 17-4 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 35.7% from three-point range.
  • The Crimson Tide knock down 10.5 three-pointers per game this season, 2.4 more makes per game than the Terrapins give up (8.1).
  • Alabama has gone 12-8-1 against the spread and 18-4 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Maryland hits fewer threes than its opponents, it is 1-11 ATS and 3-10 straight up.

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