Heat vs Pacers: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – March 19, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 19, 2021 - Last Updated on March 29, 2021

Southeast Division foes square off when the Miami Heat (22-19) host the Indiana Pacers (17-22) at American Airlines Arena, starting at 8:00 PM ET on Friday, March 19, 2021. The Pacers are 4.5-point underdogs in the game, the first matchup between the teams this season. The matchup’s point total is set at 215.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from William Hill sportsbook as of March 18, 2021, 11:25 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Heat vs Pacers Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of March 19

Heat:
Gabe Vincent: Day To Day (Knee),
Avery Bradley: Day To Day (Calf),
Andre Iguodala: Day To Day (Hip),
Trevor Ariza: Out (Health Protocols)

Pacers:
Jeremy Lamb: Day To Day (Knee),
JaKarr Sampson: Day To Day (Knee),
T.J. Warren: Out (Foot)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Pacers (+4.5)
Total Pick Over (215.5)
Prediction Heat 112, Pacers 107

The model line and the William Hill line are within 0.1 points of each other.

In this matchup, the model projects a total (219.2 points) slightly higher than the William Hill over/under (215.5 points).

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Heat Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Jimmy Butler 27 21.8 7.5 7.6 2.1 0.4 0.4
Bam Adebayo 35 18.9 9.5 5.5 0.9 1.0 0.1
Tyler Herro 30 15.5 5.6 3.4 0.6 0.4 1.9
Goran Dragic 27 13.8 3.3 4.9 0.6 0.1 1.6
Kendrick Nunn 33 13.3 3.3 2.7 1.1 0.3 2.0

Heat Player Props

  • Jimmy Butler’s assists prop over/under for the matchup is posted at 6.5 assists, 1.1 assists less than his season average of 7.6.
  • Bam Adebayo’s rebounding prop over/under for the contest is set at 9.5 boards, equal to his season average of 9.5.
  • Butler’s steals prop total for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.6 steals less than his season average of 2.1.

Pacers Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Malcolm Brogdon 38 21.7 4.7 6.0 1.1 0.2 2.5
Domantas Sabonis 39 20.4 11.2 6.4 1.1 0.6 0.9
Caris LeVert 15 18.1 4.3 5.4 1.2 0.4 1.9
Doug McDermott 38 13.3 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 1.7
Myles Turner 37 13.1 6.6 1.0 1.0 3.4 1.4

Pacers Player Props

  • Malcolm Brogdon’s assists prop total for the contest is listed at 5.5 assists, 0.9 assists lower than his season average of 6.4.
  • Malcolm Brogdon’s points prop over/under for the game is set at 19.5, 2.2 points lower than his season average of 21.7.
  • Justin Holiday’s three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 2.5, equal to his season average of 2.5.
  • T.J. McConnell’s steals prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, 0.4 steals less than his season average of 1.9.

Shooting Trends

  • This season, the Heat have a 45.9% shooting percentage from the field, which is one% lower than the 46.9% of shots the Pacers’ opponents have knocked down.
  • Miami is 11-6-1 against the spread and 12-6 overall when it shoots higher than 46.9% from the field.
  • Indiana is 11-6 against the spread and 12-5 overall when allowing opponents to shoot better than 45.9% from the field.
  • The Pacers’ 47.3% shooting percentage from the field this season is 3.1 percentage points higher than the Heat have given up to their opponents (44.2%).
  • Indiana has put together a 15-14 record against the spread and a 17-12 straight up record in games it shoots over 44.2% from the field.
  • Miami is 15-15-1 against the spread and 20-11 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 47.3% from the field.
  • The Heat shoot 34.7% from three-point range, 3.5% lower than the 38.2% the Pacers allow to opponents.
  • Miami has assembled a 7-4-1 record against the spread and a 9-3 straight-up record in games this season when the team knocks down more than 38.2% of its three-point attempts.
  • Indiana is 7-7 against the spread and 7-7 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 34.7% from deep.
  • The Pacers shoot 36% from beyond the arc this season. That’s -0.1 percentage points lower than the Heat have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (35.9%).
  • Indiana is 10-9 ATS and 10-9 overall when the team makes more than 35.9% of its three-point attempts.
  • Miami is 12-10-1 ATS and 14-9 overall in games it shoots over 36% from deep.
  • The Heat hit 12.7 three-pointers per game this season, just 0.6 more makes per game than the Pacers give up 12.1.
  • When Miami makes more threes than its opponents, it is 6-4 against the spread and 9-1 overall. When Indiana is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 7-12 ATS and 9-10 straight up.
  • The Pacers are the 20th-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Heat give up the 28th-fewest makes from deep.

Heat vs Pacers Stat Rankings

Heat Rank Heat AVG Pacers AVG Pacers Rank
26th 106.3 Points Scored 112.6 15th
3rd 106.8 Points Allowed 112.8 20th
26th 42.7 Rebounds 41.4 29th
30th 7.7 Off. Rebounds 8.5 25th
16th 12.7 3pt Made 12.1 20th
12th 25.8 Assists 26.5 7th
24th 14.4 Turnovers 13.3 12th

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