Boise State vs SMU: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – March 18, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 18, 2021 - Last Updated on March 29, 2021

The SMU Mustangs (11-5) visit the Boise State Broncos (18-8) as 1-point underdogs after Kendric Davis went off for 35 points in the Mustangs 74-71 loss to Cincinnati. The game airs on ESPN at 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, March 18, 2021. The matchup’s over/under is set at 145.5.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 18, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Mustangs (+1)

The model favors the Broncos by 0.0 points, just 1.0 fewer than the 1-point spread set by DraftKings.

Pick OU:
Under (145.5)

In this game, the model projects a total (142.0 points) slightly lower than the DraftKings over/under (145.5 points).

Prediction: Boise State 72, SMU 71

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Broncos this season is 76.4 points, 2.4 more points than their implied total of 74 points in Thursday’s game.
  • Boise State will look to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (74) for the 16th time this season.
  • The Mustangs’ average implied point total on the season (73.8 points) is 1.8 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (72 points).
  • SMU has totaled more than 72 points seven times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Boise State and SMU Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 1+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Broncos 14-10-1 11-9-1 14-11
Mustangs 6-8-1 6-5-1 8-7

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Broncos make 45.5% of their shots from the field this season, which is 5.5 percentage points higher than the Mustangs have allowed to their opponents (40%).
  • Boise State has amassed an 11-5-1 record against the spread and a 15-3 straight-up record in games it shoots better than 40% from the field.
  • SMU’s record is 5-5-1 against the spread and 9-3 overall when its opponents make more than 45.5% of their shots from the field.
  • The Mustangs are shooting 45.1% from the field, 2.3% higher than the 42.8% the Broncos’ opponents have shot this season.
  • SMU is 8-2 overall and 5-3-1 against the spread when it knocks down more than 42.8% of its attempts from the field.
  • Boise State is 11-4 overall and 10-4 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 45.1% from the field.
  • The Broncos shoot 34.2% from deep, the same as the Mustangs allow to opponents.
  • Boise State has assembled an 11-3 straight-up record and a 7-6-1 record against the spread in games when the team makes more than 34.2% of its three-point attempts this season.
  • SMU has put up a 4-2-1 against the spread while going 6-1 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 34.2% from deep.
  • The Mustangs are making 33.9% of their shots from three-point distance, which is just one percentage point greater than the 32.9% the Broncos’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • SMU has a 4-4-1 ATS record and is 8-2 straight-up in games when the team hits more than 32.9% of its three-point attempts.
  • Boise State has a 12-3-1 ATS record and a 13-4 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 33.9% from three-point range.
  • The Broncos are 7-4-1 against the spread and 10-3 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Mustangs are 1-4-1 ATS and 4-3 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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