Heat vs Cavaliers: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – March 16, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 16, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The Cleveland Cavaliers (14-24) are heavy underdogs (+10.5) as they try to end a three-game losing streak when they visit the Miami Heat (21-18) at 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at American Airlines Arena. The contest airs on SUN. The over/under in the matchup is set at 208.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of March 16, 2021, 12:05 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Heat vs Cavaliers Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of March 16

Tyler Herro: Day To Day (Shoulder),
Avery Bradley: Day To Day (Calf),
Bam Adebayo: Day To Day (Knee),
Meyers Leonard: Out For Season (Shoulder),
Gabe Vincent: Day To Day (Knee)

Taurean Prince: Day To Day (Shoulder),
Andre Drummond: Out (Not with team),
Kevin Love: Day To Day (Calf),
Matthew Dellavedova: Out (Appendicitis)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Heat (-10.5)
Total Pick Over (208)
Prediction Heat 113, Cavaliers 102

Both DraftKings and the model expect the Heat to walk away with the victory, but the model spread (11.4) is 0.9 points further in their direction.

In this game, the model projects a total (214.7 points) slightly higher than the DraftKings over/under (208 points).

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Heat Key Players

Jimmy Butler 25 21.4 7.4 8.0 2.2 0.4 0.4
Bam Adebayo 33 19.2 9.5 5.4 0.9 1.0 0.1
Tyler Herro 28 15.7 5.7 3.5 0.6 0.4 2.0
Goran Dragic 25 14.6 3.2 4.9 0.6 0.1 1.7
Kendrick Nunn 31 13.7 3.2 2.7 1.2 0.3 2.0

Heat Player Props

  • Jimmy Butler’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 33.5, 3.3 less than his season average of 36.8.
  • Bam Adebayo’s rebounding prop total for the matchup is listed at 9.5 rebounds, equal to his season average of 9.5.
  • Adebayo’s blocks prop over/under for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.5 blocks higher than his season average of 1.0.

Cavaliers Key Players

Collin Sexton 33 23.7 2.6 4.2 1.2 0.1 1.6
Andre Drummond 25 17.5 13.5 2.6 1.6 1.2 0.0
Darius Garland 29 15.9 2.2 5.9 1.1 0.1 1.7
Jarrett Allen 37 13.1 9.9 1.7 0.4 1.7 0.1
Cedi Osman 37 10.7 3.6 2.6 0.9 0.2 1.9

Cavaliers Player Props

  • Collin Sexton’s PRA prop total for the matchup is posted at 33.5, 3.0 higher than his season average of 30.5.
  • Darius Garland’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 22.5, 1.5 less than his season average of 24.0.
  • Cedi Osman’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 2.5, 0.6 shots higher than his season average of 1.9.
  • Jarrett Allen’s blocks prop total for the game is set at 1.5, 0.2 blocks lower than his season average of 1.7.

Shooting Trends

  • This season, the Heat have a 46.1% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.9% lower than the 48% of shots the Cavaliers’ opponents have hit.
  • Miami is 9-5 against the spread and 11-3 overall when it shoots higher than 48% from the field.
  • Cleveland’s record is 10-6 against the spread and 11-5 overall when its opponents make more than 46.1% of their shots from the field.
  • The Cavaliers’ 45% shooting percentage from the field this season is -0.7 percentage points lower than the Heat have given up to their opponents (44.3%).
  • Cleveland is 13-10 against the spread and 11-12 overall when it shoots higher than 44.3% from the field.
  • Miami is 13-9 against the spread and 17-5 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot above 45% from the field.
  • The Heat’s 34.9% three-point shooting percentage this season is 4.7 percentage points lower than opponents of the Cavaliers have shot from deep (39.6%).
  • Miami has a 6-4 record against the spread and an 8-2 record overall when the team connects on more than 39.6% of its three-point attempts.
  • Cleveland is 7-5 against the spread while putting up a 6-6 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 34.9% from downtown.
  • The Cavaliers are hitting 34% of their shots from three-point distance, which is 2.4 percentage points fewer than the 36.4% the Heat’s opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Cleveland has a 10-4 ATS record and is 8-6 straight-up when the team hits more than 36.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • Miami has a 9-4 ATS record and a 9-4 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 34% from three-point distance.
  • The Heat hit 12.9 three-pointers per game this season, 3.5 more makes per game than the Cavaliers give up (9.4).
  • When Miami makes more threes than its opponents, it is 6-4 against the spread and 9-1 overall. When Cleveland is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 7-20 ATS and 7-20 straight up.
  • The Cavaliers rank last in the NBA in made three-pointers, while the Heat allow the 28th-fewest made threes in the league.

Heat vs Cavaliers Stat Rankings

Heat Rank Heat AVG Cavaliers AVG Cavaliers Rank
26th 106.6 Points Scored 103.4 30th
3rd 107.5 Points Allowed 111.8 16th
27th 42.4 Rebounds 43.3 10th
30th 7.5 Off. Rebounds 11.3 3rd
15th 12.9 3pt Made 9.4 30th
12th 25.9 Assists 23.2 23rd
24th 14.5 Turnovers 14.8 28th

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